Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Investigation of trend analysis of monthly total precipitation by an innovative method

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to detect possible trend in monthly total precipitation rate on the basis of Mann–Kendall (MK) and a new method recently proposed by Şen trend tests. The new method is used for trend analysis of monthly total precipitation data recorded at Samsun, Trabzon, Ankara, Yozgat, Adana, and Antalya provinces in Turkey. For comparison purposes, the well-known MK trend test is also applied to the same data. According to the MK trend test, Samsun and Trabzon generally have statistically significant increasing trend. There is no statistically significant trend (trendless time series) for Ankara, Yozgat, and Adana provinces. While the February month of Antalya shows statistically significant decreasing trend, April month of Antalya shows statistically significant increasing trend. According to the Şen’s trend test, peak and low values of monthly total precipitation of the six provinces show different trends (increasing, decreasing, or trendless time series) from the MK trend test. The study shows that the Şen method could be successfully used in evaluation of peak and low values of data for trend analysis of monthly total precipitation variable.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bayazit M, Onoz B (2007) To prewhiten or not to prewhiten in trend analysis? Hydrol Sci J 52(4):611–624

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Buffoni L, Maugeri M, Nanni T (1999) Precipitation in Italy from 1833 to 1996. Theor Appl Climatol 63:33–40

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burn DH, Elnur MAH (2002) Detection of hydrologic trends and variability. J Hydrol 255:107–122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cannarozzo M, Noto LV, Viola F (2006) Spatial distribution of rainfall trends in Sicily (1921–2000). Phys Chem Earth 31:1201–1211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cigizoglu HK, Bayazit M, Onoz B (2005) Trends on the maximum, mean and low flows of Turkish rivers. J Hydrometeorol 6(3):280–295

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dinpashoh Y, Mirabbasi R, Jhajharia D, Abianeh H, Mostafaeipour A (2013) Effect of short term and long-term persistence on identification of temporal trends. J Hydrol Eng. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000819

    Google Scholar 

  • Douglas EM, Vogel RM, Kroll CN (2000) Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation. J Hydrol 240(1–2):90–105

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duhan D, Pandey A (2013) Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of precipitation during 1901–2002 at Madhya Pradesh, India. Atmos Res 122:136–149

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gemmer M, Becker S, Jiang T (2004) Observed monthly precipitation trends in China 1951–2002. Theor Appl Climatol 77:39–45

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gilbert RO (1987) Statistical methods for environmental pollution monitoring. Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York, 320p

    Google Scholar 

  • Gocic M, Trajkovic S (2013) Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia. Glob Planet Chang 100:172–182

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haktanir T, Bajabaa S, Masoud M (2013) Stochastic analyses of maximum daily rainfall series recorded at two stations across the Mediterranean Sea. Arab J Geosci 6(10):3943–3958

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamed KH, Rao AR (1998) A modified Mann–Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. J Hydrol 204:182–196

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Helsel DR, Hirsch RM (2002) Statistical methods in water resources. Techniques of water-resources investigations of the United States Geological Survey Book 4, Chapter A3, Hydrologic Analysis and Interpretation

  • Hirsch RM, Alexander RB, Smith RA (1991) Selection of methods for the detection and estimation of trends in water quality. Water Resour Res 27:803–814

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hirsch RM, Slack JR (1984) A nonparametric trend test for seasonal data with serial dependence. Water Resour Res 20:727–732

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Working Group II contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Summary for Policymakers, 23

  • IPCC (2008) Climate change and water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 28th Sesion. 09–10 April, Budapest, IPCC-XXVIII/Doc.13. Some: Osman B, Payne R, Nurse L, Bates BC, Kundzewic ZW, Wu S (eds)

  • Kahya E, Kalaycı S (2004) Trend analysis of streamflow in Turkey. J Hydrol 289:128–144

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalaycı S, Kahya E (1998) Detection of water quality trends in the rivers of the Susurluk Basin. J Eng Environ Sci 22:503–514

    Google Scholar 

  • Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods, 4th edn. Charles Griffin, London, 202 p

    Google Scholar 

  • Kisi O, Ay M (2014) Comparison of Mann–Kendall and innovative trend method for water quality parameters of the Kizilirmak River, Turkey. J Hydrol 513:362–375

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kottegoda NT (1980) Stochastic water resources technology. The MacMillan Press, London, 384p

    Google Scholar 

  • Kumar V, Jain SK, Singh Y (2010) Analysis of long-term rainfall trends in India. Hydrol Sci J 55(4):484–496

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lettenmaier DP (1988) Multivariate nonparametric tests for trend in water quality. Water Resour Bull 24:505–512

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lettenmaier DP, Wood EF, Wallis JR (1994) Hydroclimato-logical trends in the continental United States, 1948–1988. J Clim 7(4):586–607

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Libiseller C, Grimvall A (2002) Performance of partial Mann Kendall tests for trend detection in the presence of covariates. Environmetrics 13:71–84

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Loftis JC, Taylor CH, Chapman PL (1991) Multivariate tests for trend in water quality. Water Resour Res 27:1419–1429

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13(3):245–259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marengo JA (2004) Interdecadal variability and trends of rainfall across the Amazon basin. Theor Appl Climatol 78:79–96

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller GT (1990) Living in the environment. An introduction to environmental science. Wadsworth Publishing Company Belmont Third Edition

  • Miller WP, Piechota TC (2008) Regional analysis of trend and step changes observed in hydroclimatic variables around the Colorado River Basin. J Hydrometeorol 9(5):1020–1034

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mondal A, Kundu S, Mukhopadhyay A (2012) Rainfall trend analysis by Mann–Kendall test: a case study of north-eastern part of Cuttack district, Orissa. Int J Geol, Earth Environ Sci 2(1):70–78

    Google Scholar 

  • Mortsch L, Hengeveld H, Lister M, Lofgren B, Quinn F, Slivitzky M, Wenger L (2000) Climate change impacts on the hydrology of the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence system. Can Water Resourc J 25(2):153–179

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mozejko J (2012) Detecting and estimating trends of water quality parameters, Water Quality Monitoring and Assessment, Dr. Voudouris (ed). ISBN: 978-953-51-0486-5, InTech, Available at: http://www.intechopen.com/books/water-quality-monitoring-and-assessment/detecting-and-estimating-trendsof-water-quality-parameters

  • Oguntunde PG, Abiodun BJ, Lischeid G (2011) Rainfall trends in Nigeria, 1901–2000. J Hydrol 41:207–218

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Onoz B, Bayazit M (2003) The power of statistical tests for trend detection. Turk J Eng Environ Sci 27:247–251

    Google Scholar 

  • Partal T, Kahya E (2006) Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data. Hydrol Process 20(9):2011–2026

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paul S, Datta D, Sarkar PK (2011) Determination of trend of annual precipitation by stationary wavelet components in northern part of Maharashtra. J Environ Stat 2(5):01–11

    Google Scholar 

  • Pujol N, Neppel L, Sabatier R (2007) Regional tests for trend detection in maximum precipitation series in the French Mediterranean region. Hydrol Sci J 52(5):956–973

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sang Y-F, Wang Z, Liu C (2014) Comparison of the MK test and EMD method for trend identification in hydrological time series. J Hydrol 510:293–298

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Şen Z (2012) Innovative trend analysis methodology. J Hydrol Eng 17(9):1042–1046

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Şen Z (2013) Trend identification simulation and application. J Hydrol Eng. doi:10.1061/(ASCE) HE.1943-5584.0000811

    Google Scholar 

  • Şen Z (2013b) Square diagonal trend test procedure. 6th International Perspective on Water Resources &The Environment. 07–09, (Article in conference CD), Izmir, Turkey

  • Tabari H, Hosseinzadeh Talaee P (2011) Temporal variability of precipitation over Iran: 1966–2005. J Hydrol 396(3–4):313–320

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tabari H, Marofi S, Ahmadi M (2011) Long-term variations of water quality parameters in the Maroon River, Iran. Environ Monit Assess 177:273–287

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • TSMS (2013) Evaluation of precipitations for 2012. Turkish State Meteorological Service, Ankara, www.mgm.gov.tr

    Google Scholar 

  • Turkes M (1996) Spatial and temporal analysis of annual rainfall variations in Turkey. Int J Climatol 16:1057–1076

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turkes M, Koc T, Sarıs F (2009) Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation total series over Turkey. Int J Climatol 29(8):1056–1074

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • United Nations (2004) World population to 2300, NY, 254p

  • United Nations (2012) The future we want. UN Headquarters, NY

    Google Scholar 

  • Van Belle G, Hughes JP (1984) Nonparametric tests for trend in water quality. Water Resour Res 20:127–136

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • von Storch H (1995) In: Storch HV, Navarra A (eds) Misuses of statistical analysis in climate research. Analysis of Climate Variability: applications of statistical techniques. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp 11–26

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Whitfield PH, Cannon AJ (2000) Recent variations in climate and hydrology in Canada. Can Water Resour J 25(1):19–65

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • WMO (2009) Guide to hydrological practices, volume II: management of water resources and applications of hydrological practices. No. 168, 302p

  • Yavuz H, Erdogan S (2012) Spatial analysis of monthly and annual precipitation trends in Turkey. Water Resour Manag 26:609–612

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yevjevich V (1972) Stochastic processes in hydrology. Water Resources Publications, Fort Collins, 276p

    Google Scholar 

  • Yu YS, Zoua S, Whittemoreb D (1993) Non-parametric trend analysis of water quality data of rivers in Kansas. J Hydrol 150(1):61–80

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yue S, Hashino M (2003) Long term trends of annual and monthly precipitation in Japan. J Am Water Resour Assoc 39(3):587–596

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yue S, Pilon P, Caradias G (2002) Power of the Mann–Kendall and Spearman’s rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. J Hydrol 259:254–271

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang X, Harvey KD, Hoggy WD, Yuzyk TR (2001) Trends in Canadian streamflow. Water Resour Res 37(4):987–998

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors sincerely thank personnel of the Turkish State Meteorological Service in Turkey for the data observation, processing, and management. The authors would also like to thank the editor and one anonymous reviewer for their valuable suggestions and comments.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering-Architectural, Bozok University, 66900, Yozgat, Turkey

    Murat Ay

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Architectural and Engineering, Canik Basari University, 55080, Samsun, Turkey

    Ozgur Kisi

Authors
  1. Murat Ay
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Ozgur Kisi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Murat Ay.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Ay, M., Kisi, O. Investigation of trend analysis of monthly total precipitation by an innovative method. Theor Appl Climatol 120, 617–629 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1198-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1198-8

Keywords

Search

Navigation