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Assessment of projected climate change in the Carpathian Region using the Holdridge life zone system

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Abstract

In this paper, expected changes in the spatial and altitudinal distribution patterns of Holdridge life zone (HLZ) types are analysed to assess the possible ecological impacts of future climate change for the Carpathian Region, by using 11 bias-corrected regional climate model simulations of temperature and precipitation. The distribution patterns of HLZ types are characterized by the relative extent, the mean centre and the altitudinal range. According to the applied projections, the following conclusions can be drawn: (a) the altitudinal ranges are likely to expand in the future, (b) the lower and upper altitudinal limits as well as the altitudinal midpoints may move to higher altitudes, (c) a northward shift is expected for most HLZ types and (d) the magnitudes of these shifts can even be multiples of those observed in the last century. Related to the northward shifts, the HLZ types warm temperate thorn steppe and subtropical dry forest can also appear in the southern segment of the target area. However, a large uncertainty in the estimated changes of precipitation patterns was indicated by the following: (a) the expected change in the coverage of the HLZ type cool temperate steppe is extremely uncertain because there is no consensus among the projections even in terms of the sign of the change (high inter-model variability) and (b) a significant trend in the westward/eastward shift is simulated just for some HLZ types (high temporal variability). Finally, it is important to emphasize that the uncertainty of our results is further enhanced by the fact that some important aspects (e.g. seasonality of climate variables, direct CO2 effect, etc.) cannot be considered in the estimating process.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the European Union and the State of Hungary, co-financed by the European Social Fund in the framework of TÁMOP 4.2.4. A/2-11-1-2012-0001 ‘National Excellence Program’. The ENSEMBLES dataset used in this work was funded by the EU FP6 Integrated Project ENSEMBLES (Contract number 505539), whose support is gratefully acknowledged. We acknowledge the E-OBS dataset from the EU FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://www.ecad.eu). We are really grateful for János Geiger (University of Szeged, Hungary) for his valuable advices in the trend analysis. We would like to thank Ágnes Havasi (Eötvös Loránd University, Hungary) for careful proof reading of the manuscript. Finally, we gratefully thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable suggestions and constructive comments that helped us to improve the quality of the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geology and Palaeontology, University of Szeged, Egyetem u. 2–6, Szeged, 6722, Hungary

    Zoltán Szelepcsényi & Pál Sümegi

  2. Department of Meteorology, Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/A, Budapest, 1117, Hungary

    Hajnalka Breuer, Anna Kis & Rita Pongrácz

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  1. Zoltán Szelepcsényi
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  2. Hajnalka Breuer
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  3. Anna Kis
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  4. Rita Pongrácz
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  5. Pál Sümegi
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Correspondence to Zoltán Szelepcsényi.

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Szelepcsényi, Z., Breuer, H., Kis, A. et al. Assessment of projected climate change in the Carpathian Region using the Holdridge life zone system. Theor Appl Climatol 131, 593–610 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1987-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1987-3

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