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Trends in thermal discomfort indices over western coastal cities of India

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Abstract

The present research aimed at analyzing temporal trends in thermal discomfort indices for a period of 46 years from 1969 to 2014 over western coastal region of India for seven urban centers during the months of pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Direct thermal discomfort indices employed for this purpose were thermo-hygrometric index (THI) and heat index (HI). Statistical techniques applied for obtaining temporal trends were linear regression model and Mann-Kendall (MK) rank test. Statistical significance of the obtained trends was evaluated at 95% confidence level. Sequential MK (SQ-MK) test was used for change point detection. To investigate actual incidences of thermal discomfort, daily index values were averaged for standard meteorological weeks (SMWs) over the study period and decadal percentage of thermal discomfort during SMWs was estimated. Trend analysis of selected meteorological parameters such as dry bulb temperature (DBT), wet bulb temperature (WBT), relative humidity (RH), and wind speed (WS) were investigated, which might be responsible for variation in thermal discomfort over the period. The results obtained depicted significant increase in thermal discomfort over the cities located on the southern part of west coast, while significant increase was observed during monsoon season months compared to pre-monsoon season. Decadal variation in percentage of SMWs falling in various discomfort categories was studied. At majority of the stations, moderate and high-risk SMWs have increased over the last two decades. The results of change point detection for THI and HI denoted significant increase at most of the stations after 1990s. The study validates increase in thermal discomfort vulnerability, particularly at thriving urban centers of western coastal region of India.

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Acknowledgements

The research is funded by the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), New Delhi, India. The authors are thankful to India Meteorological Department (IMD) for providing required climatological data. The authors are also grateful to Savitribai Phule Pune University for supporting this research. The authors also express their gratitude towards the anonymous reviewers for their suggestions, which helped in improving the quality of this manuscript.

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  1. Department of Geography, Savitribai Phule Pune University, Pune, 411007, India

    Manasi S. Desai & Amit G. Dhorde

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Correspondence to Amit G. Dhorde.

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Desai, M.S., Dhorde, A.G. Trends in thermal discomfort indices over western coastal cities of India. Theor Appl Climatol 131, 1305–1321 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2042-8

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