Groundwater flow in a transboundary fault-dominated aquifer and the importance of regional modeling: the case of the city of Querétaro, Mexico

The city of Querétaro, located near the political boundary of the Mexican states of Querétaro and Guanajuato, relies on groundwater as it sole water supply. Groundwater extraction in the city increased from 21 × 10⁶ m³/yr in 1970 to 104 × 10⁶ m³/yr in 2010, with an associated drawdown of 100 m in some parts of the aquifer. A three-dimensional numerical groundwater-flow model has been developed that represents the historical evolution of the aquifer’s potentiometric levels and is used to simulate the effect of two scenarios: (1) a 40 % reduction in the extraction rate from public water supply wells in early 2011 (thus reducing the extraction to 62 × 10⁶ m³/yr), and (2) a further reduction in 2021 to 1 × 10⁶ m³/yr. The modeling results project a temporary recovery of the potentiometric levels after the 40 % reduction of early 2011, but a return to 2010 levels by 2020. If scenario 2 is implemented in 2021, the aquifer will take nearly 30 years to recover to the simulated levels of 1995. The model also shows that the wells located in the city of Querétaro started to extract water from part of the aquifer beneath the State of Guanajuato in the late 1970s, thus showing that the administrative boundaries used in Mexico to study and develop water resources are inappropriate, and consideration should be given to physical boundaries instead. A regional approach to studying aquifers is needed in order to adequately understand groundwater flow dynamics.