Abstract
Agricultural crops are affected by climate change due to the relationship between crop development, growth, yield, CO2 atmospheric concentration and climate conditions. In particular, the further reduction in existing limited water resources combined with an increase in temperature may result in higher impacts on agricultural crops in the Mediterranean area than in other regions. In this study, the cropping system models CERES-Wheat and CROPGRO-Tomato of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) were used to analyse the response of winter durum wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) crops to climate change, irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer managements in one of most productive areas of Italy (i.e. Capitanata, Puglia). For this analysis, three climatic datasets were used: (1) a single dataset (50 km × 50 km) provided by the JRC European centre for the period 1975–2005; two datasets from HadCM3 for the IPCC A2 GHG scenario for time slices with +2°C (centred over 2030–2060) and +5°C (centred over 2070–2099), respectively. All three datasets were used to generate synthetic climate series using a weather simulator (model LARS-WG). Adaptation strategies, such as irrigation and N fertilizer managements, have been investigated to either avoid or at least reduce the negative impacts induced by climate change impacts for both crops. Warmer temperatures were primarily shown to accelerate wheat and tomato phenology, thereby resulting in decreased total dry matter accumulation for both tomato and wheat under the +5°C future climate scenario. Under the +2°C scenario, dry matter accumulation and resulting yield were also reduced for tomato, whereas no negative yield effects were observed for winter durum wheat. In general, limiting the global mean temperature change of 2°C, the application of adaptation strategies (irrigation and nitrogen fertilization) showed a positive effect in minimizing the negative impacts of climate change on productivity of tomato cultivated in southern Italy.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ainsworth EA, Long SP (2005) What have we learned from 15 years of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE)? A meta-analytic review of the responses of photosynthesis, canopy properties and plant production to rising CO2. New Phytol 165:351–372
Alexandrov VA, Eitzinger J (2005) The potential effect of climate change and elevated air carbon dioxide on agricultural crop production in central and south-eastern. J Crop Improv 13:291–331
Alexandrov VA, Hoogenboom G (2000) The impact of climate variability and change on crop yield in Bulgaria. Agr For Meteorol 104:315–327
Attri SD, Rathore LS (2003) Simulation of impact of projected climate change on wheat in India. Int J Climatol 23:693–705
Bindi M, Olesen JE (2011) The responses of agriculture in Europe to climate change. Reg Environ Change 11:151–158
Bindi M, Fibbi L, Gozzini B, Orlandini S, Miglietta F (1996) Modelling the impact of climate scenarios on yield and yield variability of grapevine. Clim Res 7:213–224
Brassard JP, Singh B (2008) Impacts of climate change and CO2 increase on agriculture production and adaptation options for southern Québec, Canada. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 13:241–265
Dane F, Hunter AG, Chambliss OL (1991) Fruit set, pollen fertility and combining ability of selected tomato genotypes under high temperature field conditions. J Am Soc Hort Sci 116(5):906–910
Dettori M, Cesaraccio C, Motroni A, Spano D, Duce P (2011) Using CERES-Wheat to simulate durum wheat production and phenology in Southern Sardinia, Italy. Field Crop Res 120:179–188
Diagana B, Antle J, Stoorvogel J, Gray K (2007) Economic potential for soil carbon sequestration in the Nioro region of Senegal’s Peanut Basin. Agr Syst 94:26–37
Donatelli M, van Ittersum MK, Bindi M, Porter RJ (2002) Modelling cropping systems—highlights of the symposium and preface to the special issues. Eur J Agron 18:1–11
Eitzinger J, Stastna M, Zalud Z, Dubrorsky M (2003) A simulation study of the effect of soil water balance and water stress on wheat production under different climate change scenarios. Agr Water Manag 61:195–217
El Afandi G, Khalil FA, Ouda SA (2010) Using irrigation scheduling to increase water productivity of wheat-maize rotation under climate change conditions. Chil J Agric Res 70(3):474–484
Ferrise R, Moriondo M, Bindi M (2011) Probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts on durum wheat in the Mediterranean region. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 11:1293–1302
Giannakopoulos C, Le Sager P, Bindi M, Moriondo M, Kostopoulou E, Goodess CM (2009) Climatic changes and associated impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from global warming. Global Planet Change 68:209–224
Guereña A, Ruiz-Ramos M, Díaz-Ambrona CH, Conde J, Mínguez MI (2001) Assessment of climate change and agriculture in Spain using climate models. Agron J 93:237–249
Hanson CE, Palutikof JP, Livermore MTJ, Barring L, Bindi M, Corte-Real J, Durao R, Giannakopoulos C, Good P, Holt T, Kundzewicz Z, Leckebusch G, Moriondo M, Radziejewski M, Santos J, Schlyter P, Schwarb M, Stjernquist I, Ulbrich U (2007) Modelling the impact of climate extremes: an overview of the MICE project. Clim Change 81:163–177
Holden NM, Brereton AJ, Fealy R, Sweeney J (2003) Possible change in Irish climate and its impact on barley and potato yields. Agr For Meteorol 116:181–196
IPCC, 2007a: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 996 pp.
IPCC, 2007b: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976 pp.
ISTAT (2009) Data warehouse dell’Istituto Nazionale di Statistica Italiano
Jin ZQ, Zhu DW (2008) Impacts of changes in climate and its variability on food production in Northeast China. Acta Agron Sinica 34:1588–1597
Jones JW, Hoogenboom G, Porter CH, Boote KJ, Batchelor WD, Hunt LA, Wilkens PW, Singh U, Gijsman AJ, Ritchie JT (2003) The DSSAT cropping system model. Eur J Agron 18:235–265
Kalra N, Chander S, Pathak H, Aggarwal PK, Gupta NC, Sehgal M, Chakraborty D (2007) Impacts of climate change on agriculture. Outlook Agr 36:109–118
Kapetanaki G, Rosenzweig C (1997) Impact of climate change on maize yield in Central and Northern Greece: a simulation study with Ceres-Maize. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 1:251–271
Kimball BA, Kobayashi K, Bindi M (2002) Responses of agricultural crops to free-air CO2 enrichment. Adv Agron 77:293–368
Knox JW, Rodríguez Díaz JA, Nixon DJ, Mkhwanazi M (2010) A preliminary assessment of climate change impacts on sugarcane in Swaziland. Agr Syst 103:63–72
Kostopoulou E, Jones PD (2005) Assessment of climate extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean. Meteorol Atmos Phys 89:69–85. doi:10.1007/s00703-005-0122-2
Lazar C, Lazar DA (2010) Simulation of temperature increase influence on winter wheat yields and development in South-Eastern Romania. Roman Agric Res 27:7–15
Mall RK, Singh R, Gupta A, Srinivasan G, Rathore LS (2006) Impact of climate change on Indian agriculture: a review. Clim Change 78:445–478
Meza FJ, Silva D, Vigil H (2008) Climate change impacts on irrigated maize in Mediterranean climates: evaluation of double cropping as an emerging adaptation alternative. Agr Syst 98:21–30
Moriondo M, Bindi M, Kundzewicz ZW, Szwed M, Chorynski A, Matczak P, Radziejewski M, McEvoy D, Wreford A (2010) Impact and adaptation opportunities for European agriculture in response to climatic change and variability. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 15:657–679
Moriondo M, Giannakopoulos C, Bindi M (2011a) Climate change impact assessment: the role of climate extremes in crop yield simulation. Clim Change 104:679–701
Moriondo M, Bindi M, Fagarazzi C, Ferrise R, Trombi G (2011b) Framework for high-resolution climate change impact assessment on grapevines at a regional scale. Reg. Environ Change. doi:10.1007/s10113-010-0171-z
New M (2005) Arctic climate change with a 2°C global warming. In: Rosentrater LD, New M, Kaplan JO, Comiso JC, Watt-Cloutier S et al (eds) Evidence and implications of dangerous climate change in the arctic. WWF International Arctic Program, Oslo, pp 1–15
Persson T, Garcia y Garcia A, Paz J, Jones J, Hoogenboom G (2009) Maize ethanol feedstock production and net energy value as affected by climate variability and crop management practices. Agr Syst 100:11–21
Rinaldi M (2001) Durum wheat simulation in southern Italy using CERES-Wheat model. I. Calibration and validation. In: Proceedings of the 2nd international symposium on modelling cropping systems, Florence, Italy, July 16–18, pp 81–82
Rinaldi M, Ventrella D, Gagliano C (2007) Comparison of nitrogen and irrigation strategies in tomato using CROPGRO model. A case study from Southern Italy. Agr Water Manag 87:91–105
Sarkar R, Kar S (2008) Sequence analysis of DSSAT to select optimum strategy of crop residue and nitrogen for sustainable rice-wheat rotation. Agron J 100:87–97
SAS Institute (1996) SAS/STAT software: changes and enhancements through release 6.11. Cary, NC
Semenov MA (2007) Development of high resolution UKCIP02-based climate change scenarios in the UK. Agr For Meteorol 144:127–138
Semenov MA, Barrow EM (1997) Use of a stochastic weather generator in the development of climate change scenarios. Clim Change 35:397–414
Soil Survey Staff (1992) Keys of soil taxonomy. Tech. Monogr. 19, 5th edn. Blacksburg, Virginia, SMSS
Soltani A, Hoogenboom G (2007) Assessing crop management options with crop simulation models based on generated weather data. Field Crop Res 103:198–207
Tshiala MF, Olwoch JM (2010) Impact of climate variability on tomato production in Limpopo Province, South Africa. Afr J Agric Res 5(21):2945–2951
Tubiello FN, Donatelli M, Rosenzweig C, Stockle CO (2000) Effects of climate change and elevated CO2 on cropping systems: model predictions at two Italian locations. Eur J Agron 13:179–189
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the Italian Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Policies under the project on “Evolution of cropping systems as affected by climate change (CLIMESCO),” contract n. 285 in 20/02/2006.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Ventrella, D., Charfeddine, M., Moriondo, M. et al. Agronomic adaptation strategies under climate change for winter durum wheat and tomato in southern Italy: irrigation and nitrogen fertilization. Reg Environ Change 12, 407–419 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-011-0256-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-011-0256-3