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Vulnerability of 208 endemic or endangered species in China to the effects of climate change

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Abstract

We assessed the vulnerability of 208 endemic or endangered species in China to the effects of climate change, as a part of the project “Research on China’s National Biodiversity and Climate Change Strategy and Action Plans”. Based on the China Species Information System, we selected comprehensive species as analysis targets, covering taxa including mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and plants. We applied nine species distribution models in BIOMOD (a package of R software) to estimate the current (1991–2010) ranges and predicted future (2081–2100) ranges of these species, using six climate variables based on Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) and A1B emission scenario. The model results showed that different taxa might show diverse potential range shifts over time. The range sizes of half of the species (104 species) would decrease, and those of another half would increase. We predicted that the future remaining ranges (intersection of current and future ranges/current ranges) of 135 species would be less than 50 % of their current range sizes. Species that are both endemic and critically endangered would lose more of their range than others. In summary, the most vulnerable species are currently found on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, in the Hengduan Mountain Range, and southern China. Future action plans dealing with climate change in China should be prepared with consideration for vulnerable species and their habitats.

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Acknowledgments

This work is a part of the project “Research on China national biodiversity and climate change strategy and action plans”, supported by the EU-China Biodiversity Program (ECBP). This study was also supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA05080701) and the Public Welfare Project (201209027) of the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China. We thank anonymous reviewers who provided valuable comments and suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of the Zoological Systematics and Evolution, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1-5 Beichen West Road, Beijing, 100101, China

    Xinhai Li, Huidong Tian, Yuan Wang & Dianmo Li

  2. Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Renqiang Li, Zengming Song & Ming Xu

  3. Foreign Economic Cooperation Office, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Beijing, 100035, China

    Fengchun Zhang

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  1. Xinhai Li
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  3. Yuan Wang
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Correspondence to Xinhai Li.

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Li, X., Tian, H., Wang, Y. et al. Vulnerability of 208 endemic or endangered species in China to the effects of climate change. Reg Environ Change 13, 843–852 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-012-0344-z

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