Abstract
Adaptation is situated within multiple, interacting social, political, and economic forces. Adaptation pathways envision adaptation as a continual pathway of change and response embedded within this broader sociopolitical context. Pathways emphasize that current decisions are both informed by past actions and shape the landscape of future options. This research examines how adaptation actors in Grand County, Colorado perceive adaptation in the context of environmental change and uncertainty. Grand County residents drew on experiences of past change to suggest they had a high capacity to respond to future change, in particular a significant outbreak of mountain pine beetle. While residents and land managers characterized adaptation as gradual and incremental, they also recognized the ways that powerful cross-scale processes related to federal land management and water diversions challenged local adaptation. Further, Grand County residents identified multiple uncertainties in addition to those associated with climate projections, suggesting that addressing uncertainty extends beyond developing strategies robust across different climate scenarios. The challenges of uncertainty and cross-scale governance require more than increased adaptive capacity; they demand that we understand how local and extra-local structures shape the adaptation envelope that enables and constrains local decisions and implementation. Within this envelope, local actors pursue particular adaptation pathways and exercise agency to influence the structures shaping their options. Drawing on empirical insights, we argue that the concepts of pathways and envelopes together provide theoretical space for understanding the dynamic interplay between structure and agency in the context of adaptation.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adger WN, Vincent K (2005) Uncertainty in adaptive capacity. C R Geosci 337(4):399–410
Adger WN, Arnell NW, Tompkins EL (2005) Successful adaptation to climate change across scales. Glob Environ Change 15(2):77–86
Adger WN, Dessai S, Goulden M, Hulme M, Lorenzoni I, Nelson DR, Naess LO, Wolf J, Wreford A (2009) Are there social limits to adaptation to climate change? Clim Change 93:335–354
Archie KM (2013) Mountain communities and climate change adaptation: barriers to planning and hurdles to implementation in the Southern Rocky Mountain Region of North America. Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change Online First. doi:10.1007/s11027-013-9449-z
Bammer G, Smithson M (eds) (2008) Uncertainty and risk: multidisciplinary perspectives. Earthscan, London
Bassett TJ, Fogelman C (2013) Déjà vu or something new? The adaptation concept in the climate change literature. Geoforum 48:42–53
Berkhout F, Hurk B, Bessembinder J, Boer J, Bregman B, Drunen M (2013) Framing climate uncertainty: socio-economic and climate scenarios in vulnerability and adaptation assessments. Reg Environ Change. doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0519-2
Buuren A, Driessen P, Teisman G, Rijswick M (2013) Toward legitimate governance strategies for climate adaptation in the Netherlands: combining insights from a legal, planning, and network perspective. Reg Environ Change. doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0448-0
Camacho AE (2009) Adapting governance to climate change: managing uncertainty through a learning infrastructure. Emory Law J 59:1–55
Chapin SF, Zavaleta ES, Welling LA, Deprey P, Yung L (2007) Planning in the context of uncertainty: flexibility for adapting to change. In: Cole DN, Yung L (eds) Beyond naturalness: rethinking park and wilderness stewardship in an era of rapid change. Island Press, Washington, pp 216–233
Clow DW (2010) Changes in the timing of snowmelt and streamflow in Colorado: a response to recent warming. J Clim 23(9):2293–2306
Cote M, Nightingale AJ (2011) Resilience thinking meets social theory: situating social change in socio-ecological systems (SES) research. Prog Hum Geogr 36(4):475–489
Dessai S, Hulme M, Lempert R, Pielke RA (2009) Do we need better predictions to adapt to a changing climate? Ecos 90(13):111–112
Dobrowski SZ, Abatzoglou J, Swanson AK, Mynsberge A, Greenberg JA, Holden Z, Schwartz MK (2013) The climate velocity of the contiguous United States during the 20th century. Glob Change Biol 19(1):241–251
Dovers SR, Hezri AA (2010) Institutions and policy processes: the means to the ends of adaptation. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change 1:212–231
Dow K, Haywood BK, Kettle NP, Lackstrom K (2013) The role of ad hoc networks in supporting climate change adaptation: a case study from the Southeastern United States. Reg Environ Change 13(6):1235–1244
Downing TE (2012) Views of the frontiers in climate change adaptation economics. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change 3(2):161–170
Dyck I, Kearns RA (2006) Structuration theory: agency, structure, and everyday life. In: Aitken S, Valetine G (eds) Approaches to human geography. Sage, London, pp 86–97
Ebi Kristie et al (2014) A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions. Clim Change 122:363–372
Emirbayer M, Mische A (1998) What is agency? Am J Sociol 103(4):962–1023
Fabricius C, Folke C, Cundill G, Schultz L (2007) Powerless spectators, coping actors, and adaptive co-managers: a synthesis of the role of communities in ecosystem management. Ecol Soc, 12(1):29. http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol12/iss1/art29/
Few R, Brown K, Tompkins EL (2007) Public participation and climate change adaptation: avoiding the illusion of inclusion. Clim Policy 7(1):46–59
Folke C, Hahn T, Olsson P, Norberg J (2005) Adaptive Governance of Social-Ecological Systems. Annu Rev Environ Resour 30:441–473
Gibson CC, Ostrom E, Ahn TK (2000) The concept of scale and the human dimensions of global change: a survey. Ecol Econ 32(2):217–239
Giddens A (1984) The constitution of society. Polity Press, Cambridge, p 417
Gidley J, Fien J, Smith J-A, Thomsen D, Smith T (2009) Participatory future methods: towards adaptability and resilience in climate-vulnerable communities. Environ Policy Gov 19:427–440
Goodier C, Austin S, Soetanto R, Dainty A (2010) Causal mapping and scenario building with multiple organizations. Futures 42:219–229
Haasnoot M, Middelkoop H, Offermans A, van Beek E, van Deursen WP (2012) Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment. Clim Chang 115(3–4):795–819
Hallegatte S (2009) Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change. Glob Environ Chang 19(2):240–247
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2001) Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: McCarthy JJ, Canziani OF, Leary NA, Dokken DJ, White KS (eds) Contribution of working group II to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
Jones L, Boyd E (2011) Exploring social barriers to adaptation: insights from Western Nepal. Glob Environ Chang 21:1262–1274
Kahan D, Jenkins-Smith H, Braman D (2011) Cultural cognition of scientific consensus. J Risk Res 14(2):147–174
Kasperson RE (2008) Coping with deep uncertainty: challenges for environmental assessment and decision-making. In: Bammer G, Smithson M (eds) Uncertainty and risk: multidisciplinary perspectives. Earthscan, London, pp 337–348
Knowles N, Dettinger MD, Cayan DR (2006) Trends in snowfall versus rainfall in the Western United States. J Clim 19(18):4545–4559
Layder D (1998) Sociological practice: linking theory and social research. Sage, London
McWethy DB, Gray ST, Higuera PE, Littell JS, Pederson GT, Ray AJ, Whitlock C (2010) Climate and terrestrial ecosystem change in the US. Rocky Mountains and Upper Columbia Basin: historical and future perspectives for natural resource management. Natural Resource Report NPS/GRYN/NRR—2010/260. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado
Measham TG, Preston BL, Smith TF, Brooke C, Gorddard R, Withycombe G, Morrison C (2011) Adapting to climate change through local municipal planning: barriers and challenges. Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change 16:889–909
Miles M, Huberman A (1994) Qualitative data analysis: an expanded source book. Thousand Oaks, California
Moser SC, Ekstrom JA (2010) A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation. PNAS 107(51):22026–22031
Northwest Colorado Council of Government (NWCCG) (2006) Transitions in mountain communities: resort economies and their secondary effects. Venturoni Surveys and Research Inc, Dillion
O’ Brien K, Eriksen S, Nygaard LP, Schjolden ANE (2007) Why different interpretations of vulnerability matter in climate change discourses. Clim Policy 7(1):73–88
O’Brien K (2012) Global environmental change II: from adaptation to deliberate transformation. Prog Hum Geogr 36(5):667–676
O’Brien K, Hochachka G (2010) Integral adaptation to climate change. J Int Theor Pract 5(1):89–102
Ozkaynak B, Rodriguez-Labajos B (2010) Multi-scale interaction in local scenario-building: a methodological framework. Futures 42:995–1006
Pelling M (2011) Adaptation to climate change: from resilience to transformation. Routledge, London
Ray AJ, Barsugli JJ, Averyt KB (2008) Climate change in Colorado: a synthesis to support water resources management and adaptation. A report for the Colorado water conservation board by the NOAA-CU Western water assessment
Schoennagel T, Veblen TT, Negron JF, Smith JM (2012) Effects of mountain pine beetle on fuels and expected fire behavior in Lodgepole Pine Forests, Colorado, USA. PLoS One 7(1):e30002
Smith N, Leiserowitz A (2012) The rise of global warming skepticism: exploring affective image associations in the United States over time. Risk Anal 32(6):1021–1032
Stafford Smith M, Horrocks L, Harvey A, Hamilton C (2011) Rethinking adaptation for a 4 °C world. Philos Trans A 369(1934):196–216
Tarlock D (1994) The nonequilibrium paradigm of ecology and the partial unraveling of environmental law. Loyola Los Angel Law Rev 27:1121–1144
Tetra Tech, HabiTech Inc., Walsh Aquatics, Inc. (2010) Draft report stream management plan phase 3 Grand County, Colorado. Prepared for Grand Country CO, Colorado
Thornton TF, Manasfi N (2010) Adaptation—genuine and spurious: demystifying adaptation processes in relation to climate change. Environ Soc: Adv Res 1(1):132–155
Tompkins EL, Few R, Brown K (2008) Scenario-based stakeholder engagement: incorporating stakeholders preferences into coastal planning for climate change. J Environ Manage 88(4):1580–1592
Wetherald RT, Stouffer RJ, Dixon KW (2001) Committed warming and its implications for climate change. Geophys Res Lett 28(8):1535–1538
Williams JE, Haak AL, Neville HM, Colyer WT (2009) Potential consequences of climate change to persistence of cutthroat trout populations. N Am J Fish Manage 29(3):533–548
Wise R, Fazey I, Stafford Smith M, Park SE, Eakin HC, Archer van Garderen ERM, Campbell B (2014) Reconceptualising adaptation to climate change as part of pathways of change and response. Glob Environ Change. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.12.002
Wyborn C, Bixler PR (2013) Collaboration and nested environmental governance: scale dependency, scale framing and cross-scale interactions in collaborative conservation. J Environ Manage 123:58–67
Yohe G, Tol RSJ (2002) Indicators for social and economic coping capacity: moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity. Glob Environ Change 12(1):25–40
Yung L, Patterson ME, Freimund WA (2010) Rural community views on the role of local and extra-local interests in public lands governance. Soc Nat Resour 23(12):1170–1186
Acknowledgments
We wish to thank Grand County residents who participated in interviews and focus groups. We are grateful to the USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station for financial support and for the contributions of Cory Cleveland, Solomon Dobrowski, Lisa Eby, Shannon McNeeley, and Erin Towler.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Editor: James D. Ford.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Wyborn, C., Yung, L., Murphy, D. et al. Situating adaptation: how governance challenges and perceptions of uncertainty influence adaptation in the Rocky Mountains. Reg Environ Change 15, 669–682 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0663-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0663-3