Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Livelihood vulnerability approach to assessing climate change impacts on mixed agro-livestock smallholders around the Gandaki River Basin in Nepal

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Regional Environmental Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Climate change vulnerability depends upon various factors and differs between places, sectors and communities. People in developing countries whose subsistence livelihood depends mainly upon agriculture and livestock production are identified as particularly vulnerable. Nepal, where the majority of people are in a mixed agro-livestock system, is identified as the world’s fourth most vulnerable country to climate change. However, there is limited knowledge on how vulnerable mixed agro-livestock smallholders are and how their vulnerability differs across different ecological regions in Nepal. This study aims to test two vulnerability assessment indices, livelihood vulnerability index and IPCC vulnerability index, around the Gandaki River Basin of central Nepal. A total of 543 households practicing mixed agro-livestock were surveyed from three districts, namely Dhading, Syangja and Kapilvastu representing three major ecological zones: mountain, mid-hill and Terai (lowland). Data on socio-demographics, livelihood determinants, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability were collected and combined into the indices. Both indices differed for mixed agro-livestock smallholders across the three districts, with Dhading scoring as the most vulnerable and Syangja the least. Substantial variation across the districts was observed in components, sub-components and three dimensions (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) of vulnerability. The findings help in designing site-specific intervention strategies to reduce vulnerability of mixed agro-livestock smallholders to climate change.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Adger WN (2006) Vulnerability. Glob Environ Change 16:268–281. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.006

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adger WN (2010) Social capital, collective action, and adaptation to climate change. Der Klimawandel. VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. doi:10.1007/978-3-531-92258-4_19

  • Adger WN, Brooks N, Bentham G, Agnew M, Ereksen S (2004) New indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity, vol 7. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich

    Google Scholar 

  • Alwang J, Siegel PB, Jorgensen SL (2001) Vulnerability: a view from different disciplines. Discussion paper. Social Protection Unit, World Bank, Washington DC

  • Armah FA, Yawson DO, Yengoh GT, Odoi JO, Afrifa EKA (2010) Impact of floods on livelihoods and vulnerability of natural resource dependent communities in Northern Ghana. Water 2:120–139. doi:10.3390/w2020120

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aryal A, Brunton D, Raubenheimer D (2013) Impact of climate change on human–wildlife-ecosystem interactions in the Trans-Himalaya region of Nepal. Theoritical and Applied Climatology 115:517–529. doi:10.1007/s00704-013-0902-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aryal S, Cockfield G, Maraseni TN (2014) Vulnerability of Himalayan transhumant communities to climate change. Clim Change 125:193–208. doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1157-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baidya SK, Regmi RK, Shrestha ML (2007) Climate profile and observed climate change and climate variability in Nepal. Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Government of Nepal, Kathmandu

  • Barry RG (1990) Changes in mountain climate and glacio-hydrological responses. Mt Res Dev 10:161–170. doi:10.2307/3673426

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Castle EN (2002) Social capital: an interdisciplinary concept. Rural Sociol 67:331–349. doi:10.1111/j.1549-0831.2002.tb00107.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • CBS (2012) National Population and Housing Census 2011—National Report. Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), Government of Nepal, Kathmandu

  • Chalise SR, Khanal NR (2001) An introduction to the climate, hydrology and landslides hazards in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region. ICIMOD, Kathmandu

    Google Scholar 

  • Chambers R, Conway G (1992) Sustainable rural livelihoods: practical concepts for the 21st century. Institude of Development Studies (IDS), UK

  • Cutter S (2003) Vulnerability to environmental hazards. Soc Sci Q 84:242–261. doi:10.1111/1540-6237.8402002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Desinventer (2014) Desinventer: Disaster Information System

  • Dhakal CK, Regmi PP, Dhakal IP, Khanal B, Bhatta UK (2013) Livelihood vulnerability to climate change based on agro ecological regions of Nepal. Glob J Sci Front Res 13:47–53

    Google Scholar 

  • Eakin H, Luers AL (2006) Assessing the vulnerability of social-environmental systems. Annu Rev Environ Resour 31:365–394. doi:10.1146/annurev.energy.30.050504.144352

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Etwire PM, Al-Hassan RM, Kuwornu JKM, Osei-Owusu Y (2013) Application of livelihood vulnerability index in assessing vulnerability to climate change and variability in Northern Ghana. J Environ Earth Sci 3:157–170

    Google Scholar 

  • Ford JD, Smit B (2004) A framework for assessing the vulnerability of communities in the Canadian Arctic to risks associated with climate change. Arctic 57:389–400. doi:10.14430/arctic516

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fussel H-M, Klein RJT (2006) Climate change vulnerability assessments: an evolution of conceptual thinking. Clim Change 17:301–329. doi:10.1007/s10584-006-0329-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gentle P, Thwaites R, Race D, Alexander K (2014) Differential impacts of climate change on communities in the middle hills region of Nepal. Nat Hazards 74:815–836. doi:10.1007/s11069-014-1218-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ghimire YN, Shivakoti GP, Perret SR (2010) Household-level vulnerability to drought in hill agriculture of Nepal: implications for adaptation planning. Int J Sustain Dev World Ecol 17:225–230. doi:10.1080/13504501003737500

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hahn MB, Riederer AM, Foster SO (2009) The Livelihood Vulnerability Index: a pragmatic approach to assessing risks from climate variability and change—a case study in Mozambique. Glob Environ Change 19:74–88. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.11.002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hallegatte S (2009) Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change. Glob Environ Change 19:240–247. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.12.003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heltberg R, Siegel PB, Jorgensen SL (2009) Addressing human vulnerability to climate change: toward a ‘no-regrets’ approach. Glob Environ Change 19:89–99. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.11.003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. In: McCarthy JJ, Canziani OF, Leary NA, Dokken DJ, White KS (eds) Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. http://www.preventionweb.net/files/8387_wg2TARfrontmatter1.pdf

  • IPCC (2007) Summary for policymakers. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-spm.pdf

  • IPCC (2014) Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities. In: Field CB, Barros VR, Dokken DJ, Mach KJ, Mastrandrea MD, Bilir TE, Chatterjee M, Ebi KL, Estrada YO, Genova RC, Girma B, Kissel ES, Levy AN, MacCracken S, Mastrandrea PR, White LL (eds) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  • IRIN (2013) Analysis: Why livestock matters in Nepal? IRIN News

  • Ives JD, Messerli B, Spiess E (2000) Mountains of the World: a global priority, vol 11. Land degradation and development, vol 2. Parthenon Publishing Group, New York. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1099-145X(200003/04)11:2<197::AID-LDR390>3.0.CO;2-U

  • Jones L, Boyd E (2011) Exploring social barriers to adaptation: insights from Western Nepal. Glob Environ Change 21:1262–1274. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.06.002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kasperson RE, Kasperson JX (2001) Climate change, vulnerability and social justice. Risk and vulnerability programme. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm

  • Kurukulasuriya P, Rosenthal S (2003) climate change and agriculture: a review of impacts and adaptations. The World Bank, Washington DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu J, Rasul G (2007) Climate change, the Himalayan mountains, and ICIMOD. Sustain Mt Dev 53:11–14

    Google Scholar 

  • Mainaly J, Tan SF (2012) Mainstreaming gender and climate change in Nepal. IIED, London. http://pubs.iied.org/pdfs/10033IIED.pdf

  • Maplecroft (2011) Climate Change Vulnerability Index 2011

  • MOAD (2012) Selected indicators of Nepalese agriculture and population. Agribusiness and Statistics Division, Ministry of Agriculture Development (MOAD), Government of Nepal, Kathmandu

  • MOEST (2010) National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA). Ministry of Environment, Science and Technology (MoEST), Government of Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal

  • MOHA (2013) Nepal Disaster Report 2013: focus on participation and inclusion. Ministry of Home Affairs (MOHA), the government of Nepal, Kathmandu

  • O’Brien K, Eriksen S, Schjolden A, Nygaard L (2005) What’s in a word? Interpretations of vulnerability in climate change research. Oslo

  • Pandey R, Jha SK (2012) Climate vulnerability index—measure of climate change vulnerability to communities: a case of rural Lower Himalaya, India. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 17:487–506. doi:10.1007/s11027-011-9338-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pandey R, Kala S, Pandey VP (2014) Assessing climate change vulnerability of water at household level. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change. doi:10.1007/s11027-014-9556-5

    Google Scholar 

  • Panthi J et al (2015) Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in the Gandaki River Basin of Nepal Himalaya. Climate 3:210–226. doi:10.3390/cli3010210

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pelling M, High C (2005) Understanding adaptation: What can social capital offer assessments of adaptive capacity? Glob Environ Change 15:308–319. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.02.001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pradhanang UB, Pradhanang SM, Sthapit A, Krakauer N, Lakhankar T, Jha AK (2015) National livestock policy of Nepal: needs and opportunities. Agriculture 3:103–131. doi:10.3390/agriculture5010103

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rangwala I, Miller JR (2012) Climate change in mountains: a review of elevation-dependent warming and its possible causes. Clim Change 114:527–547. doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0419-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • SAGUN (2009) Climate change impacts on livelihoods of poor and vulnerable communities and biodiversity—a case study in Banke, Bardia, Dhading and Rasuwa Districts of Nepal. Strengthened Actions for Governance in Utilization of Natural Resources (SAGUN) Project, Kathmandu

  • Saussa HK (2010) Effects of drip irrigation water amount on crop yield, productivity and efficiency of water use in desert regions in Egypt, Nile Basin. Water Sci Eng J 3:96–109

    Google Scholar 

  • Shah KU, Dulal HB, Johnson C, Baptiste A (2013) Understanding livelihood vulnerability to climate change: applying the livelihood vulnerability index in Trinidad and Tobago. Geoforum 47:125–137. doi:10.1016/j.geoforum.2013.04.004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shrestha AB, Aryal R (2011) Climate change in Nepal and its impact on Himalayan glaciers. Reg Environ Change 11:65–77. doi:10.1007/s10113-010-0174-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shrestha AB, Wake CP, Mayewski PA, Dibb JE (1999) Maximum temperature trends in the Himalayas and its vicinity: an analysis based on temperature records from Nepal for the period 1971–1994. J Clim 12:2775–2786. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2775:MTTITH>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shrestha MS, Artan GA, Bajracharya SR, Gautam DK, Tokar SA (2011) Bias-adjusted satellite-based rainfall estimates for predicting floods: Narayani basin. J Flood Rosk Manag 4:360–373. doi:10.1111/j.1753-318X.2011.01121.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Skoufias E, Rabassa M, Olivieri S, Brahmbhatt M (2011) The poverty impacts of climate change. Economic Premise, vol 5622. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper

  • Sullivan CA, Meigh JR, Fediw TS (2002) Derivation and testing of the Water Poverty Index Phase 1 vol 1. Department for International Development (DFID), UK

  • Thakur JK, Thakur RK, Ramanathan AL, Kumar M, Singh SK (2011) Arsenic contamination of groundwater in Nepal—an overview. Water 3:1–20. doi:10.3390/w3010001

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Thomas D, Osbahr H, Twyman C, Adger N, Hewiston B (2005) ADAPTIVE: adaptations to climate change amongst natural resource-dependent societies in the developing world: across the Southern African climate gradient vol 35. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Technical UK

  • Thornton PK, Van de Steeg J, Notenbaert A, Herrero M (2009) The impacts of climate change on livestock and livestock systems in developing countries: a review of what we know and what we need to know. Agric Syst 101:113–127. doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2009.05.002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turner BL et al (2003) A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proc Natl Acad Sci (PNAS) 100:8074–8079. doi:10.1073/pnas.1231335100

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • UNDP (2007) United Nations Development Programmes

  • UNICEF (2008) MISC3 manual: multiple indicators cluster survey. United Nations Fund for Children (UNICEF)

  • WHO (2005) Immunization coverage cluster survey—reference manual. World Health Organization (WHO), Geneva

  • WMO (2009) Guidelines on analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation, vol 72. World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Geneva

  • WMO (2012) Standardized precipitation index—user guide. World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Geneva

  • Wooda SA, Jina AS, Jain M, Kristjanson P, DeFries RS (2014) Smallholder farmer cropping decisions related to climate variability across multiple regions. Glob Environ Change 25:163–172. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.12.011

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), the government of Nepal and the UNISDR are highly acknowledged for providing the observed meteorological data and natural disaster events, respectively. Field enumerators from The Small Earth Nepal (SEN) and Tribhuvan University are thanked. This work is part of a collaborative research project supported by the USAID Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Collaborative Research on Adapting Livestock Systems to Climate Change at Colorado State University under sub-award 9650-32. All statements made are the views of the authors and not the opinions of the funders or the US government.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. The Small Earth Nepal (SEN), 626-Bhakti Thapa Sadak, Naya Baneshwor, PO Box # 20533, Kathmandu, Nepal

    Jeeban Panthi & Piyush Dahal

  2. International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, and Faculty of Business, Education, Law and Arts, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, QLD, 4350, Australia

    Suman Aryal

  3. Central Department of Environmental Science, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal

    Parashuram Bhandari

  4. Department of Civil Engineering and NOAA-CREST, The City College of New York, New York, NY, 10031, USA

    Nir Y. Krakauer

  5. Asian Institute of Technology and Management (AITM), PO Box # 25, Lalitpur/Patan, 44700, Nepal

    Vishnu Prasad Pandey

  6. Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), PO Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani, 12120, Thailand

    Vishnu Prasad Pandey

Authors
  1. Jeeban Panthi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Suman Aryal
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Piyush Dahal
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Parashuram Bhandari
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Nir Y. Krakauer
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Vishnu Prasad Pandey
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jeeban Panthi.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Editor: Erica Smithwick.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 25 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Panthi, J., Aryal, S., Dahal, P. et al. Livelihood vulnerability approach to assessing climate change impacts on mixed agro-livestock smallholders around the Gandaki River Basin in Nepal. Reg Environ Change 16, 1121–1132 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0833-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0833-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation