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North Sea wave conditions: an analysis of four transient future climate realizations

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Abstract

The multi-decadal wave conditions in the North Sea can be influenced by anthropogenic climate change. That may lead to the intensification of wave extremes in the future and consequently increase risks for the coastal areas as well as for on- and offshore human activities. Potential changes caused by alteration of atmospheric patterns are investigated. Four transient climate projections (1961–2100), reflecting two IPCC emission scenarios (A1B and B1) and two different initial states, are used to simulate the wave scenarios. The potential wind-induced changes in waves are studied by comparing future statistics (2001–2100) with the corresponding reference conditions (1961–2000). Generally, there is a small increase in future 99th percentile significant wave height for most eastern parts of the North Sea towards the end of the twenty-first century. This small increase is superimposed by a strong variability of the annual extremes on time scales of decades. Opposite to the differences in wave height, the change in wave direction to more waves propagating east shows less decadal variability and is more uniform among all realizations. Nevertheless, temporal and spatial differences of the wave height in the four climate projections point to the uncertainties in the climate change signals.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are thankful to A. Behrens for assistance with the model WAM and to B. Gardeike for assistance with the graphics. The investigation was partly supported in the context of the joint project A-KÜST in KLIFF (Förderkennzeichen VWZN2455, Az. 99-22/07).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Material and Coastal Research, Max-Planck-Str. 1, 21502, Geesthacht, Germany

    Nikolaus Groll, Iris Grabemann & Lidia Gaslikova

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  1. Nikolaus Groll
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  2. Iris Grabemann
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  3. Lidia Gaslikova
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Correspondence to Nikolaus Groll.

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Responsible Editor: Birgit Andrea Klein

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Groll, N., Grabemann, I. & Gaslikova, L. North Sea wave conditions: an analysis of four transient future climate realizations. Ocean Dynamics 64, 1–12 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-013-0666-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-013-0666-5

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