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Climate change impact on North Sea wave conditions: a consistent analysis of ten projections

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Abstract

Long-term changes in the mean and extreme wind wave conditions as they may occur in the course of anthropogenic climate change can influence and endanger human coastal and offshore activities. A set of ten wave climate projections derived from time slice and transient simulations of future conditions is analyzed to estimate the possible impact of anthropogenic climate change on mean and extreme wave conditions in the North Sea. This set includes different combinations of IPCC SRES emission scenarios (A2, B2, A1B, and B1), global and regional models, and initial states. A consistent approach is used to provide a more robust assessment of expected changes and uncertainties. While the spatial patterns and the magnitude of the climate change signals vary, some robust features among the ten projections emerge: mean and severe wave heights tend to increase in the eastern parts of the North Sea towards the end of the twenty-first century in nine to ten projections, but the magnitude of the increase in extreme waves varies in the order of decimeters between these projections. For the western parts of the North Sea more than half of the projections suggest a decrease in mean and extreme wave heights. Comparing the different sources of uncertainties due to models, scenarios, and initial conditions, it can be inferred that the influence of the emission scenario on the climate change signal seems to be less important. Furthermore, the transient projections show strong multi-decadal fluctuations, and changes towards the end of the twenty-first century might partly be associated with internal variability rather than with systematic changes.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are thankful to A. Behrens for assistance with theWAM model and to B. Gardeike for assistance with the graphics. This investigation was partly supported in the context of the joint project AKU¨ ST (Changes in the coastal climate - evaluation of alternative strategies in coastal protection, F¨orderkennzeichen VWZN2455, Az. 99-22/07) and in the context of the Governmental Research Programme KLIWAS (Impacts of Climate Change on Waterways and Navigation – Development of Adaptation Options).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, Max-Planck-Str. 1, 21502, Geesthacht, Germany

    Iris Grabemann, Nikolaus Groll & Ralf Weisse

  2. Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie, Bernhard-Nocht-Str. 78, 20359, Hamburg, Germany

    Jens Möller

Authors
  1. Iris Grabemann
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  2. Nikolaus Groll
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  3. Jens Möller
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  4. Ralf Weisse
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Correspondence to Iris Grabemann.

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Responsible Editor: Val Swail

This article is part of the Topical Collection on the 13th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting in Banff, Alberta, Canada October 27 – November 1, 2013

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Grabemann, I., Groll, N., Möller, J. et al. Climate change impact on North Sea wave conditions: a consistent analysis of ten projections. Ocean Dynamics 65, 255–267 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-014-0800-z

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