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The awakening of the red dragon. China fills the power vacuum in the Far East

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Abstract

The paper analyses the basic parameters of the power of China, according to Geopolitical Theory. Even though the authors adopt a critical approach on some aspects of the geopolitical theory, the geopolitical analysis elucidates the interests of China and the United States and focuses on the way of which the American decision-making system perceives China. The article interprets the geopolitical role of China, starting from the origins of geopolitical theory to the contemporary international relations theory. In addition, it focuses on the current geo-strategic context of the Far East. It analyses Chinas' strategic thinking, China's nuclear doctrine and its military power as compared to the neighbouring countries and as a major player in the world economy.

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Notes

  1. See the arguments manifested principally in Hupe (1942) Geopolitics. The struggle for space and power, Putnam's, New York, as well as in Sprout and Sprout (1962) Foundations of international politics, Van Nostrand, Princeton.

  2. A comprehensive study on the pursuit of Asiatic regionalism, during the 15 years following the end of the Cold War is Rozman (2004) Northeast Asia's stunted regionalism. Bilateral distrust in the shadow of globalisation, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

  3. See the exceptional paper of Walt (2000) Keeping the world “off-balance”: self-restraint and US foreign policy. Research working papers series (RWP00-013), JFK School of Government, Harvard University, Boston.

  4. Edifying is the article of Golub (2004) All the riches of the East restored. Le Monde Diplomatique, English edn, 15 October, quoting Smith (1776) An inquiry into the nature and causes of the wealth of nations, Book One.

  5. See Frank (1998) Reorient global economy in the Asian age, University of California Press, Berkeley.

  6. Golub P, op.cit. See, also, the book of Hobson (2004) The Eastern origins of western civilisation, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. This essay is a polemic against “eurocentrism” and gathers economic and historical evidence on the oriental contribution to the rise of the western domination.

  7. Kennedy (1989) The rise and fall of the great powers: economic change and military conflict from 1500 to 2000, Harper Collins, New York.

  8. As described by Crawl (1986) Alfred Thayer Mahan: the naval historian. In: Paret P (ed) The makers of modern strategy. From Machiavelli to nuclear age, Princeton University Press, Princeton, p 529.

  9. He elaborated many studies, which have been exhaustingly read by generations of scholars of international affairs. Some of his distinguished essays were: the naval history, Mahan (1890) The influence of sea power upon history, 1660–1783, Boston; the biographical study, Mahan (1897) The life of Nelson. The embodiment of sea power of Great Britain, 2 Volumes, Boston; He also wrote the following theses, Mahan (1897) The interest of America in sea power, Present and future, Boston and of the same author, (1911) Naval strategy, compared with the principles of military operations on land, Boston.

  10. Crawl P, op.cit., pp. 554–555. See also, La Feber (1968) The new empire: an explanation of the American expansion, 1860–1898, Ithaca London. On the reasons that instigated the United States to use their military forces abroad for more than two centuries see Meernik (2004) The political use of military force in the US foreign policy, Ashgate, Aldershot.

  11. Mahan (1900) The problem of Asia and its effects upon international policies, Boston.

  12. Op.cit., p 67.

  13. Mahan (1902) Retrospect and prospect: studies in international relations naval and political, Boston, pp 139–140.

  14. The second cornerstone scholar on the geopolitical theory is Halford Mackinder, whose most weighty theses were, in chronological order: Mackinder (1904) The geographical pivot of history. Geographical Journal 23, April; of the same author, (1943) The round world and the winning of the peace. Foreign Affairs 21, July; of the same author, (1962) Democratic ideals and reality, Norton, New York.

  15. Nicholas Spykman's fundamental contribution was his article Rollins and Spykman (1939) Geographic objectives in foreign policy. American Political Science Review 33, June, as well as the essay, Spykman (1944) The geography of the peace, Harcourt Brace and Company, New York.

  16. Dougherty and Pfaltzgraff (1990) Contending theories of international relations. A comprehensive survey, 3rd edn, Harper and Row, New York, pp 132–133.

  17. For a brilliant study on how Nixon decided to visit China and how Kissinger “sold” the idea to different pressure groups, see Goh (2005) Constructing the US rapprochement with China, 1961–1944. From the “red menace” to “tacit ally”, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

  18. Kissinger's key hypothesis on the classical balance of power was based on his doctoral thesis, Kissinger (1964) A world restored-Europe after Napoleon: the politics of conservatism in a revolutionary age, Grosset and Dunlap, New York.

  19. On the Sino-American reconciliation between the years 1968–1972, see Dunbabin (1994) The Cold War. The great powers and their allies, Longman, London, pp 285–293.

  20. See Kissinger (1977) American foreign policy, 3rd edn. Norton, New York, and of the same author, (1979) White House years, Little Brown and Company, Boston.

  21. On the assumption of the restitution of the European peripheral system back to earlier historical models, when the system created by the Cold War was dissolved, see De Porte (1986) Europe between the super-powers. The enduring balance, 2nd edn, Yale University Press, New Haven.

  22. Rosenthal (2002) Buicks, Starbucks and fried chicken. Still China? The New York Times, February 25.

  23. Leggett (2001) China forges alliances in an effort to gain more influence in Asia. Wall Street Journal, June 7, p 1; All along with the account above, see the article of Pomfret (2001) In its own neighborhood, China emerges as leader. Washington Post, October 18, p 1.

  24. Glaser (2001) Northeast Asia after September 11: testimony on United States-Chinese relations and the Taiwan Strait. FDCH Congressional Testimony, 15th November. Record: 1,32y401591370920011115.

  25. Pomfret (2002) China sees interests tied to U.S. Change made clear in the wake of September 11. Washington Post, February 2, p 1.

  26. Hutzler (2001) US and China agree to strengthen coordinated combating terrorism. Wall Street Journal, December 7, p 1.

  27. See Pei (2002) Beijing drama: China's governance crisis and Bush's new challenge. Carnegie Policy Brief 21, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington DC.

  28. Swaine (2003) Reverse course? The fragile turnaround in US-China relations. Policy Brief, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 22 February, Washington DC, pp 1–2.

  29. Doak (1985) The making of foreign policy in China: structure and process, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado. See also Swaine and Tellis (2000) Interpreting China's grand strategy: past, present and future. RAND National Defence Research Institute (RAND, MR-1151-AF), Santa Monica CA.

  30. Bhaskarian (2003) China as potential superpower: regional responses. Frankfurt Voice China special edn. Deutsche Bank Research, January 15. http://www.dbresearch.com/prod/dbr_internet_en-prod/prod0000000000050878.pdf.

  31. Shih (2004) The conduct of U.S.-Taiwan Relations 2000–2004, The Brookings Institution, Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, Washington, DC.

  32. Pocha (2005) The geopolitics of oil. New Perspectives Quarterly 22:50–55. Currently, there are thoughts in China that it should use the huge oil and gas reserves of Russia, which are affluent from the Urals to Siberia. China, as a dynamic economy of Asia desires those energy supplies, preferably delivered as directly as possible by pipeline. The scramble to invest and construct new pipelines and rehabilitate old transit routes is now intense. See Kandiyoti (2005) Asia in the pipeline. Le Monde Diplomatique, English edn. June.

  33. Mulvenon and Swaine (2001) Taiwan's foreign and defence policies: Features and determinants, RAND National Defence Research Institute (MR-1383-SRF), Santa Monica CA.

  34. Bruce Cumings (2004) Korea: forgotten nuclear threats. Le Monde Diplomatique, English edn. November, pp 5–6.

  35. On the post-war Japanese approach to the war in Asia of the 1930s and 1940s see Hics (2004) Japan's war memories. Amnesia or concealment? Ashgate, Adlershot. Just as the Japanese favoured to forget their imperial past, the bulk of Western histories of the war against Japan do not highlight the fact that invading Japanese armies were thought of as potential liberators by some Indians, Burmese, Malayans and Indonesians, desperate for independence from European colonial rule.

  36. Stockman (2000) Understanding Chinese society, Polity, Cambridge.

  37. Despite repeated predictions of collapse and disintegration, China has managed to sustain national unity and to gain international stature. See Naugthon and Yang (2004) Holding China together. Diversity and national integration in the post-Deng era. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

  38. A fair account of the geostrategic issues and the political geography of South Asia is Chapman (2003) The geopolitics of South Asia. From early empires to nuclear age, Ashgate, Adlershot.

  39. Data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) database on military expenditure. Source: The SIPRI military expenditure database on China, June 2005, available at: http://first.sipri.org/index.php?page=step2.

  40. On the history of Soviet strategic forces, the nuclear warhead production complex, the nuclear testing programme, the air defence system, the Soviet strategic “triad” and the structure of political–military leadership see Podvig (2004) Russian strategic nuclear forces, The MIT Press, Cambridge MA.

  41. China is a country, which is considered to have the capability to conduct nuclear arms race with the United States, whether China would choose to do so, in response to the US missile defence development. See the third chapter, titled “Do arms races matter any more?” of the study of Lennon (2002) Contemporary nuclear debates. Missile defences, arms control and arms races in the twenty first century, The MIT Press, Cambridge MA.

  42. “Chapter X” on “Arms control, disarmament and non-Proliferation” of the White Paper titled “China's National Defence in 2004”, The Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China (PRC) 27 December 2004, Beijing. The full text of the document is available at http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/gyzg/t176718.htm.

  43. Hassan (2004) The challenges of global terrorism: A joint agenda for Asia, EU and US. Panorama: Insights into Southeast Asian and European Affairs, Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, pp 59–61.

  44. Over the course of 20 years the supply of China to other countries have emerged as a major issue in the United States–China relationship. And the Chinese, step by step, have cut off the military supplies to other countries. So, they cut off the supply of nuclear power technology to Algeria; they cut off the supply of missile technology Syria, at the behest of the United States. On the triadic relationship between China, India and Pakistan and their nuclear weapons policies see Rajain (2005) Nuclear deterrence in southern Asia. China, India and Pakistan, Sage Publications, London Oxford.

  45. Shambaugh (2005) China engages Asia. Reshaping the regional order. International Security 29:85–89.

  46. Godement et al. (2005) China on the move: a Franco–American analysis of emerging Chinese strategic policies and their consequences for transatlantic relations. Conference Proceedings, RAND National Defence Research Institute, (ISBN: 0-8330-3676-9), sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) and Centre Asie Ifri, Santa Monica, pp 39–44.

  47. A scrutinised estimation on military deployment, equipment holdings, procurements totals and defence budget of China, for the period 2004–2005, offers Lanton (2005) The military balance 2004–2005, International Institute of Strategic Studies, Taylor and Francis Group, London.

  48. Neary (2002) The state and politics in Japan, Polity, Cambridge.

  49. Hwang (2004) The evolution of the Japan-US alliance and future prospects. Heritage Lectures No. 861, Heritage Institution, December 21, pp 1–3.

  50. The Russian military capacity remains a major consideration for global security even in the post-Soviet era. On the military capacity, policies and doctrines that have shaped Russia's defence posture see the book of Miller and Trenin (2004) The Russian military. Power and policy, MIT Press, Cambridge MA. The authors examine minutely the downsizing of the Russian military, as well as Russia's use of military power in regional conflicts. For more than a decade, Russian leaders have struggled to formulate security and defence policies that protect Russia's borders and project Russia's influence. This paper depicts that the choices, which the Russian leaders have made, were significantly influenced by the military reforms that Russia have attempted to implement, since the collapse of the Soviet Union. For a fresh view on contemporary Russia see Worth (2005) Hegemony, international political economy and post-communist Russia, Ashgate, Adlershot.

  51. Green (2003) Reforming China's economy. A rough guide, Royal Institute for International Affairs, Cambridge University Press.

  52. Woo (2003) Challenges in macroeconomic management for China's new leaders. In: Teunissen JJ (ed) China's role in Asia and the world economy. Fostering stability and growth, Foundad, La Haya, pp 35–68. Also, Naughton (2003) Hunkering down: The Wen Jiabao administration and macroeconomic control. China Leadership Monitor 11, June.

  53. See the brilliant article of the editor of the newspaper Le Monde Diplomatique: Ramonet (2004) China wakes up and alarms the world. Le Monde Diplomatique, English edn, 15 August.

  54. China faces a series of complex problems, most of which are consequences of its rapid growth, since the process of “reform and opening up” begun in the late 1970s. The leadership of the Communist Party responded to these, in a way determining the country's pattern of development, for a long period ahead. On China's “third way” see Nolan (2003) China at the crossroads, Polity, Cambridge.

  55. Barfield (2004) The United States, China and the rise of Asian regionalism. American Enterprise Institute, Paper Delivered at the Western Economics Association Annual Conference Vancouver, British Columbia, June 29, pp 2–10. The paper traces the rise of China as a major trading nation and identifies China's major trading partners, against the background of rising East Asian regionalism.

  56. Naughton (2004) Financial reconstruction: methodological policy-making moves into the spotlight. China Leadership Monitor 10, March.

  57. See for instance Asian Development Bank Institute (2002) Policy proposals for sequencing the PRC's domestic and external financial liberalisation. Asian Policy Forum, ADBI, Tokyo.

  58. Deutsche Bank (2004) China's financial sector: Institutional framework and main challenges. Deutsche Bank Research, 9 January.

  59. The Economist (2004) Country report. China. The economist intelligence unit, March.

  60. Wolf (2003) Fault lines in China's economic terrain, RAND, Santa Monica.

  61. Barnett (2004) Banking sector developments. In: Prasad (ed) China's growth and integration into the world economy. Prospects and challenges. International Monetary Fund Occasional Paper 232:43–50.

  62. Zoubir (2004) Not just the world's workshop. Le Monde Diplomatique, English edn, 15 October.

  63. Stallings (2003) The role of the financial sector in creating growth and stability: Lessons for China from emerging market economies. In: Teunissen JJ, op.cit., pp 231–262.

  64. Kwan and Yu (2005) Critical Issues in Chinas Growth, Ashgate, Aldershot. In approximately two decades China has transformed from a stagnant socialist economy to one that is vibrant and largely market-oriented.

  65. Dean (2000) Can China avert crisis? Challenge 43:62–70.

  66. See HSBC (2004) China economic insight. Vol. 16, June, Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation.

  67. Lardy (2000) Fiscal sustainability: between a rock and a hard place. China Economic Quarterly 2:36–41.

  68. Huang (2005) Selling China. Foreign direct investment during the reform era, Cambride University Press, Cambridge.

  69. Warde (2005) Asia subsidises the United States' debts: high price of the cheap dollar. Le Monde Diplomatique, English edn, April.

  70. Lardy (1998) China's unfinished economic revolution, Brookings institution, Washington DC.

  71. See Deutsche Bank Research (2002) China 2020: challenges ahead, Deutsche Bank, 6th August.

  72. Elgin (2000) Challenges and implications of China joining the WTO: What WTO accession means, World Trade Organization Publications, Geneva.

  73. Green and Liu (2005), Exit the dragon? Privatization and the state control in China, Blackwell Publishing, Oxford.

  74. Singh (2003) Capital account liberalisation, free long term capital flows, financial crises and economic development. Eastern Economic Journal 29:191–216.

  75. Icard (2003) Capital account liberalisation in China: International perspectives. In: Banco Pagos Internationales, China's capital account liberalisation: International perspectives. BIS Papers 15:14–18.

  76. See Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2002) China in the world economy: The domestic policy challenges, OECD, Paris.

  77. Bretherton and Vogler (1999) The European Union as a global actor, Routledge, London, p 196.

  78. Commission of the European Communities (2001) EU strategy towards China: Implementation of the 1998 Communication and future steps for a more effective EU policy, 15 May, available at http://www. europa.eu.int/comm/external_relations/china/com01_265.pdf.

  79. Commission of the European Communities (2003) A maturing partnership: shared interests and challenges in EU-China relations. COM (2003) 533 fin, Brussels, 10 September, available at http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/external_relations/china/com_03_533/com_03_533_en.pdf.

  80. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China (2003) China's EU policy paper, Beijing, 13 October.

  81. Lindsey (2005) EU-China arms embargo, A trans-Atlantic crisis foretold. Der Spiegel, March, pp. 1–3.

  82. Walt S, op.cit.

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  1. 53 Tsourouktsoglou St., Nea Ionia, 14231, Athens, Greece

    Panos Lambridis

  2. 11 Nikolaou Plastira St., Nea Smirni, 17121, Athens, Greece

    Theodore Koukoulis

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  1. Panos Lambridis
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  2. Theodore Koukoulis
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Correspondence to Panos Lambridis.

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Lambridis, P., Koukoulis, T. The awakening of the red dragon. China fills the power vacuum in the Far East. AEJ 3, 479–499 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10308-005-0021-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10308-005-0021-7

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