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Exploring range shifts of contrasting tree species across a bioclimatic transition zone

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Abstract

Bioclimatic transition zones are supposed to encompass sensitive areas to global change effects on forest ecosystems. In this study, we attempt to detect shifts in the ranges of contrasting Iberian tree species in the submediterranean transition zone in Navarra, northern Spain. These shifts are analysed in the context of a significant increase in temperature over recent decades along with moderate land use changes. Data from national forest inventories (1971 and 2010) are compared through universal kriging (UK) and block kriging models to assess the shifts in the ranges of Quercus subpyrenaica, Quercus ilex, Pinus sylvestris and Fagus sylvatica. UK results predicted an increase in the presence probability of the four target species for the whole Navarra region. However, in the submediterranean zone, the presence probability of Q. subpyrenaica, P. sylvestris and F. sylvatica shows a shrinking trend, whereas Q. ilex is expanding its range, supporting a previous hypothesis of a “mediterranization” of this bioclimatic transition region. These trends are concomitant with recent elevational shift patterns towards higher elevations in the case of Q. subpyrenaica, P. sylvestris and F. sylvatica in the transition zone. Moreover, the expected increase in species richness as a consequence of geographical shifts and vegetation recovery is identified. The moderate human influence detected in the study area confirms the major role of climate warming as driver of species range shifts over the period. The results of this study highlight the suitability of bioclimatic transition zones for monitoring the effects of global change on natural ecosystems, providing evidences of the complex mechanisms affecting the distribution of forests.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the DGB of the MAGRAMA for kindly providing access to the entire NFI data sets in the frame of the Agreement EG-13-072. We also thank TRACASA for allowing us to retrieve information from the LUC map for the Navarra region, to E. Serralle and A. Bachiller for their technical support in georeferencing the NFI1 plots, to Genfored from CIFOR-INIA for providing SIG data files and to A. Collins for the careful editing of the English. The authors are also grateful to an anonymous reviewer for her/his helpful suggestions on the draft of this article. This article is the result of collaboration between L. Hernández, F. Montes and I. Cañellas with R. Sánchez de Dios and H. Sainz-Ollero within the framework of the AGL2010-21153.00.01 project aimed at integrating the response of forest ecosystems to global change in transition areas at different scales.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. INIA-CIFOR, Ctra. La Coruña, Km 7.5, 28040, Madrid, Spain

    Laura Hernández, Fernando Montes & Isabel Cañellas

  2. Departamento de Biología Vegetal I, Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, C/Jose Antonio Novais 12 s/n, 28040, Madrid, Spain

    Rut Sánchez de Dios

  3. Unidad de Botánica, Departamento de Biología, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, C/Darwin 2, 28049, Madrid, Spain

    Helios Sainz-Ollero

  4. E.T.S.I. Montes, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040, Madrid, Spain

    Laura Hernández

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  1. Laura Hernández
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Correspondence to Laura Hernández.

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Hernández, L., Sánchez de Dios, R., Montes, F. et al. Exploring range shifts of contrasting tree species across a bioclimatic transition zone. Eur J Forest Res 136, 481–492 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-017-1047-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-017-1047-2

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