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Rainfall patterns and related landslide incidence in the Porretta-Vergato region, Italy

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Abstract

An analysis of landslide occurrence in the low permeability terrain of Porretta-Vergato, Italy, related to prolonged rainfall patterns is presented. Data sets collected over nearly a century are statistically analysed. The pattern of the landslide hazard is considered and related to precipitation at the basin scale in order to enhance the understanding between the two parameters and assess their temporal changes, as well as interrelationships. Landslide incidence generally follows the periodic pattern of precipitation with a lag of approximately six months, which is believed to relate to the time necessary for the ground water to reach a critical level to initiate slope failure. There also appears to be a two-stage pattern of precipitation which induces most landslides: a preparatory period, where the landslide is destabilized and conditioned for slope failure, followed by a more intense period of rainfall that triggers or provokes the event. These initial findings point to the need for further studies to verify such unstable situations.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Prof. Canuti and the research unit in the Earth Sciences Department at Florence University for providing their expertise and access to their facilities throughout this research. M-L. Ibsen was funded as part of a European Marie Curie Individual Fellowship (EVK4-CT-2000–50003) to whom she is extremely grateful for their support. Prof. Bromhead, Prof. Sidle and two unknown referees provided very positive criticisms of a previous draft of this paper which have since been incorporated. Particular mention should also be given to Andrea Salvadori and Angelo Benedetti, both of which have carried out their doctoral theses in Florence related to this study.

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  1. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Florence, Via G. La Pira 4, 50121, Firenze, Italy

    M.-L. Ibsen & N. Casagli

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  1. M.-L. Ibsen
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  2. N. Casagli
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Correspondence to M.-L. Ibsen.

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Ibsen, ML., Casagli, N. Rainfall patterns and related landslide incidence in the Porretta-Vergato region, Italy. Landslides 1, 143–150 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-004-0018-0

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