Abstract
Debris flows and debris avalanches are the most widespread and hazardous types of landslides on the British Columbia north coast. Triggered by heavy rain, they pose risks to forestry workers in sparsely developed regions. The scarcity of long-term quality rain gauges and the lack of weather radar information create significant challenge in predicting the timing of landslides, which could be used to warn and, when necessary, evacuate forestry personnel. Traditional methods to relate rainfall antecedents and rainfall intensity to known landslide dates have proven to be unsatisfactory in this study due to extreme spatial variability of rainfall, enhanced by the orographic effect and the scarcity of rain gauges in a very large area. This has led to an integration of meteorological variables in a landslide advisory system that classifies three types of approaching storms by the 850-mbar wind speed and direction, the occurrence of subtropical moisture flow, and the existence of a warm layer characterized by high thickness values of the 500- to 1,000-mbar pressure levels. The storm classification was combined with a 4-week antecedent rainfall and the 24-h rainfall measured near or in the watershed where logging operations are taking place. This system, once implemented, is thought to reduce loss of life, injury, and economic losses associated with forestry works in the study area.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
AGRA Earth and Environmental (1996) Prince Rupert forest region exploration of existing data and information for shutdown, North Coast, Kalum, Kispiox Districts. Report for British Columbia Ministry of Forests Smithers BC, p 50
Anderson R (1993) A Mesozoic stratigraphic and plutonic framework for northwestern Stikinia (Iskut River area), northwestern British Columbia, Canada. In: Dunne G, McDougall K (eds) Mesozoic paleogeography of the western United States. Pacific section, Society of Economic Paleontologists and Minerologists, vol. 71. pp 477–494
Brand EW, Premchitt J, Phillipson HB (1984) Relationship between rainfall and landslides in Hong Kong. Proceedings of 4th international symposium on landslides, Canadian Geotechnical Society, Toronto, pp 377–384
British Columbia Ministry of Forests Erosion Reports (1996–2002) Landslide recording forms. Ministry of Forests staff, British Columbia
Caine N (1980) The rainfall-intensity duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows. Geogr Ann Ser A 62:23–27
Cannon SH, Ellen SD (1985) Rainfall conditions for abundant debris avalanches, San Francisco Bay region, California. Calif Geol 38(12):267–272
Chatterton A (1984) Operational shutdown guidelines for Vancouver Island and the Lower Mainland. Canada
Chleborad AF (2000) Preliminary method for anticipating the occurrence of precipitation-induced landslides in Seattle, Washington. US Geological Survey open-file report 00-469, Denver, CO, USA
Crozier MJ (1999) Prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides; a test of the antecedent water status model. Earth Surf Processes Landf 24(9):825–833
Deganutti AM, Marchi L, Arattano M (2000) Rainfall and debris-flow occurrence in the Moscardo Basin (Italian Alps). In: Wieczorek GF, Naeser ND (eds) Proceedings of the 2nd international conference on debris-flow hazards mitigation: mechanics, prediction and assessment. A. A. Balkema, Rotterdam, Netherlands, pp 67–72
EBA Engineering (1997) Debris flow initiation potential, gully assessment procedures, and meteorological conditions associated with debris flows in the Kalum Forest District, Northwestern British Columbia
Evenchick CA, Holm K (1997) Bedrock geology of the Anyox pendant and surrounding areas, Observatory Inlet (103P/5) and parts of Hastings Arm (103P/12) and 103O/9 map areas, British Columbia. Geol Surv Can Current Research 1997 A:11–20
Evenchick CA, Mustard PS (1996) Bedrock geology of north-central and west-central Nass River map area, British Columbia. Geol Surv Can Current Research 1996 A:45–55
Glade T, Crozier MJ, Smith P (2000) Applying probability determination to refine landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds using an empirical “Antecedent Daily Rainfall Model.” Pure Appl Geophys 157(6/8):1059–1079
Guzzetti F, Carrara A, Cardinali M, Reichenbach P (1999) Landslide hazard evaluation: a review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study, central Italy. Geomorphology 31:181–216
Harp EL, Chleborad AF, Schuster RL, Cannon SH, Reid ME, Wilson RC (1997) Landslides and landslide hazards in Washington State due to February 5–9, 1996 Storm. US Geological Survey Administrative Report, Denver, CO, USA
Hogan DL, Schwab JW (1991) Meterological conditions associated with Hillslope failures on the Queen Charlotte Islands. BC Ministry of Forests Land Management Report 73
Jakob M, Weatherly H (2003) A hydroclimatic threshold for landslide initiation on the north shore mountains of Vancouver, British Columbia. Geomorphology 54(3–4):137–156
Keefer DK, Wilson RC, Mark RK, Brabb EE, Brown WM III, Ellen SD, Harp EL, Wieczorek GF, Alger CS, Zarkin RS (1987) Real-time landslide warning during heavy rainfall. Science 238:921–925
Kerr Wood Leidal and Associates (2002) Development of GVRD precipitation scenarios. Greater Vancouver Regional District, Draft Report
Larsen MC, Wieczorek GF, Eaton LS, Torres-Sierra HT (2000) The Venezuela landslide and flash flood disaster of December 1999. In: Mugnai A, Guzzetti F, Roth G (eds) Proceedings of the second Plinius conference on Mediterranean storms. European Geophysical Society, Siena, Italy, pp 519–529
Madrone Environmental Services (2001) Proposed rainfall shutdown procedure. Skeena Cellulose (terrace operations)
Meidinger D, Pojar J (1991) Ecosystems of British Columbia. BC Ministry of Forests special report 6, Victoria
Morrissey MM, Wieczorek GF, Morgan BA (2004) Transient hazard model using radar data for predicting debris flows in Madison County, Virginia. Environ Eng Geosci 10(4):285–296
Neary DG, Swift LW Jr (1987) Rainfall thresholds for triggering a debris-avalanching event in the southern Appalachian Mountain. In: Costa JE, Wieczorek GF (eds) Debris flows/avalanches: process, recognition and mitigation. Rev Eng Geol 7:81–92
Pasuto A, Silvano S (1998) Rainfall as a trigger of shallow mass movements. A case study in the Dolomites, Italy. Environ Geol 35(2–3):184–189
Price J (2000) Landslide/precipitation/groundwater analysis. Report prepared for BC Ministry of Forests, Smithers BC
Reichenbach P, Cardinali M, De Vita P, Guzzetti, F (1998) Regional hydrological thresholds for landslides and floods in the Tiber River Basin (central Italy). Environ Geol 35(2):709–717
Septer D, Schwab J (1995) Rainstorm and flood damage: northwest British Columbia 1891–1991. BC Ministry of Forests, Land Management. Handbook 31, pp 196
Terlien MTJ (1997) Hydrological landslide triggering in ash-covered slopes of Manizales (Columbia). Geomorphology 20(1/2):165–175
White R, Schwab JW (2005) Precipitation shutdown guidelines: a strategy for their identification in the North Coast Forest District. BC Ministry of Forests (technical report)
Wieczorek GF (1987) Effect of rainfall intensity and duration on debris flows in central Santa Cruz Mountains, California. In: Costa JE, Wieczorek GF (eds) Debris flows/avalanches: process, recognition and mitigation. Rev Eng Geol 7:93–104
Wieczorek GF, Glade T (2005) Climatic factors influencing occurrence of debris flows. In: Jakob M, Hungr O (eds) Debris-flow hazards and related phenomena. Praxis and Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York, pp 325–362
Wieczorek GF, Morgan BA, Campbell RH (2000) Debris-flow hazards in the Blue Ridge of central Virginia. Environ Eng Geosci 6(1):3–23
Wilson RC, Wieczorek GF (1995) Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of debris flows at La Honda, California. Environ Eng Geosci 1(1):11–27
Wilson RC, Torikai JD, Ellen SD (1992) Development of rainfall warning thresholds for debris flows in the Honolulu District, Oahu. USGS open file report 92-521, US Geological Survey, Reston
Zêzere JL, Ferreira AD, Rodrigues ML (1999) The role of conditioning and triggering factors in the occurrence of landslides: a case study in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal). Geomorphology 30(1/2):133–146
Acknowledgements
This research was sponsored by FIA Forest Science Program of British Columbia Ministry of Forests (Project Y051047) with additional support funding from BGC Engineering Vancouver and the BC Ministry of Forest, Northern Interior Forest Region. We thank Ernst Jakob for assistance in the field and Hamish Weatherly for the review of an earlier draft of this paper.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Jakob, M., Holm, K., Lange, O. et al. Hydrometeorological thresholds for landslide initiation and forest operation shutdowns on the north coast of British Columbia. Landslides 3, 228–238 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-006-0044-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-006-0044-1