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Procedure for the selection of runout model parameters from landslide back-analyses: application to the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador, El Salvador

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Abstract

The existing procedures for the selection of runout model parameters from back-analyses do not allow integrating different types of runout criteria and generally lack a systematic approach. A new method based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses and aimed at overcoming these limitations is herein proposed. The method consists of estimating discrete classifiers for every runout simulation associated with a set of model parameters. The set of parameters that yields the best prediction is selected using ROC metrics and space. The procedure is illustrated with the back-analyses of a rainfall-triggered debris flow that killed 300–500 people in the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador in 1982. The selected model parameters are used to estimate forward predictions for scenarios that correspond to different return periods. The proposed procedure may be useful in the assessment of areas potentially affected by landslides. In turn, this information can be used in the production or updating of land use plans and zonations, similar to that currently being carried out by the Office for Urban Planning of the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador in El Salvador.

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Acknowledgements

The contributions of the following persons and institutions are gratefully acknowledged: Prof. Oldrich Hungr (University of British Columbia) who kindly provided a beta version of DAN3D to the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) and the International Centre for Geohazards (ICG); Faculty and Staff at the Department of Structural Mechanics at Universidad Centroamericana “José Simeón Cañas”, San Salvador for support with field work and laboratory tests; Manuel Díaz (Servicio Nacional de Estudios Territoriales, SNET) and Carlos Pullinger (LaGeo) for their support during field work and for fruitful discussions that have provided useful insight; and Giovanni Molina (Servicio Nacional de Estudios Territoriales, SNET) for providing the digital elevation maps that were used in the simulations. The comments from H. Wing Sun and an anonymous reviewer are greatly appreciated for their contribution in improving this manuscript. This study was financed by the Research Council of Norway through the International Centre for Geohazards (ICG), and the Quota Scheme of the Norwegian State Educational Loan Fund. Their support is gratefully acknowledged. This is ICG article no. 267.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Centre for Geohazards, Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI), Sognsveien 72, 0855, Oslo, Norway

    José Cepeda

  2. Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P.O.Box 1047, Blindern, 0316, Oslo, Norway

    José Cepeda

  3. Department of Geotechnics, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Czech Technical University in Prague, Thákurova 7, 166 29, Praha 6, Czech Republic

    José Alexander Chávez

  4. Oficina de Planificación del Área Metropolitana de San Salvador (OPAMSS), Diagonal San Carlos, 25 calle poniente y 15 avenida norte, Col. Layco., San Salvador, El Salvador

    Celina Cruz Martínez

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  1. José Cepeda
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  2. José Alexander Chávez
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  3. Celina Cruz Martínez
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Correspondence to José Cepeda.

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Cepeda, J., Chávez, J.A. & Cruz Martínez, C. Procedure for the selection of runout model parameters from landslide back-analyses: application to the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador, El Salvador. Landslides 7, 105–116 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-010-0197-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-010-0197-9

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