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Potential effects of incoming climate changes on the behaviour of slow active landslides in clay

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Abstract

Today, a stimulating debate involves the scientific community about the impact of presumable future climate changes on the human life. One of the main question marks concerns their effects on hydrological hazards. Unfortunately, often such a debate is not based on reliable data. The paper proposes a methodology based on the coupling of climatic scenarios and geotechnical analyses accounting for the potential changes in climate parameters. Some analyses have been carried out to forecast the future behaviour of a slow landslide in clay. According to the adopted model, local climate effects should cause a slow decrease in the displacement rate.

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Acknowledgments

The research has been developed with the support and partial funding by the CMCC (Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change). The authors are grateful to the two anonymous referees whose useful revision and advice allowed to deepen some aspects of the study, with beneficial effects on the quality of the paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Seconda Università degli Studi di Napoli, Via Roma 29, 81031, Aversa, Italy

    Luca Comegna & Luciano Picarelli

  2. Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risks, AMRA, Naples, Italy

    Luca Comegna & Luciano Picarelli

  3. Italian Aerospace Research Center, CIRA, Capua, Italy

    Edoardo Bucchignani & Paola Mercogliano

  4. Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climatic Changes, CMCC, Lecce, Italy

    Edoardo Bucchignani & Paola Mercogliano

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  1. Luca Comegna
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  2. Luciano Picarelli
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  4. Paola Mercogliano
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Correspondence to Luca Comegna.

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Comegna, L., Picarelli, L., Bucchignani, E. et al. Potential effects of incoming climate changes on the behaviour of slow active landslides in clay. Landslides 10, 373–391 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-012-0339-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-012-0339-3

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