Skip to main content
Erschienen in: Artificial Intelligence Review 4/2020

20.08.2019

A systematic review of fundamental and technical analysis of stock market predictions

verfasst von: Isaac Kofi Nti, Adebayo Felix Adekoya, Benjamin Asubam Weyori

Erschienen in: Artificial Intelligence Review | Ausgabe 4/2020

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

The stock market is a key pivot in every growing and thriving economy, and every investment in the market is aimed at maximising profit and minimising associated risk. As a result, numerous studies have been conducted on the stock-market prediction using technical or fundamental analysis through various soft-computing techniques and algorithms. This study attempted to undertake a systematic and critical review of about one hundred and twenty-two (122) pertinent research works reported in academic journals over 11 years (2007–2018) in the area of stock market prediction using machine learning. The various techniques identified from these reports were clustered into three categories, namely technical, fundamental, and combined analyses. The grouping was done based on the following criteria: the nature of a dataset and the number of data sources used, the data timeframe, the machine learning algorithms used, machine learning task, used accuracy and error metrics and software packages used for modelling. The results revealed that 66% of documents reviewed were based on technical analysis; whiles 23% and 11% were based on fundamental analysis and combined analyses, respectively. Concerning the number of data source, 89.34% of documents reviewed, used single sources; whiles 8.2% and 2.46% used two and three sources respectively. Support vector machine and artificial neural network were found to be the most used machine learning algorithms for stock market prediction.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Anhänge
Nur mit Berechtigung zugänglich
Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Adebayo AD, Adekoya AF, Rahman TM (2017) Predicting stock trends using Tsk-fuzzy rule based system. JENRM 4(7):48–55 Adebayo AD, Adekoya AF, Rahman TM (2017) Predicting stock trends using Tsk-fuzzy rule based system. JENRM 4(7):48–55
Zurück zum Zitat Adebiyi AA et al (2012) Stock price prediction using neural network with hybridized market indicators. J Emerg Trends Comput Inf Sci 3(1):1–9 Adebiyi AA et al (2012) Stock price prediction using neural network with hybridized market indicators. J Emerg Trends Comput Inf Sci 3(1):1–9
Zurück zum Zitat Agarwal P et al (2017) Stock market price trend forecasting using machine learning. Int J Res Appl Sci Eng Technol: IJRASET 5(IV):1673–1676 Agarwal P et al (2017) Stock market price trend forecasting using machine learning. Int J Res Appl Sci Eng Technol: IJRASET 5(IV):1673–1676
Zurück zum Zitat Agrawal S, Jindal M, Pillai GN (2010) Momentum analysis based stock market prediction using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). In: International multiconference of engineers and computer scientists (IMECS). Hong Kong Agrawal S, Jindal M, Pillai GN (2010) Momentum analysis based stock market prediction using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). In: International multiconference of engineers and computer scientists (IMECS). Hong Kong
Zurück zum Zitat Agrawal JG, Chourasia VS, Mittra AK (2013) State-of-the-art in stock prediction techniques. Int J Adv Res Electr Electron Instrum Eng 2(4):1360–1366 Agrawal JG, Chourasia VS, Mittra AK (2013) State-of-the-art in stock prediction techniques. Int J Adv Res Electr Electron Instrum Eng 2(4):1360–1366
Zurück zum Zitat Ayub A (2018) Volatility transmission from oil prices to agriculture commodity and stock market in Pakistan. Capital University of Science and Technology, Islamabad Ayub A (2018) Volatility transmission from oil prices to agriculture commodity and stock market in Pakistan. Capital University of Science and Technology, Islamabad
Zurück zum Zitat Babu MS, Geethanjali N, Satyanarayana PB (2012) Clustering approach to stock market prediction. Int J Adv Netw Appl 03(04):1281–1291 Babu MS, Geethanjali N, Satyanarayana PB (2012) Clustering approach to stock market prediction. Int J Adv Netw Appl 03(04):1281–1291
Zurück zum Zitat Chen C et al (2014) Exploiting social media for stock market prediction with factorization machine. In: 2014 IEEE/WIC/ACM international joint conference on web intelligence and intelligent agent technology—workshops, WI-IAT 2014, pp 49–56. https://doi.org/10.1109/wi-iat.2014.91 Chen C et al (2014) Exploiting social media for stock market prediction with factorization machine. In: 2014 IEEE/WIC/ACM international joint conference on web intelligence and intelligent agent technology—workshops, WI-IAT 2014, pp 49–56. https://​doi.​org/​10.​1109/​wi-iat.​2014.​91
Zurück zum Zitat Dase RK, Pawar DD (2010) Application of artificial neural network for stock market predictions: a review of literature. Int J Mach Intell 2(2):14–17CrossRef Dase RK, Pawar DD (2010) Application of artificial neural network for stock market predictions: a review of literature. Int J Mach Intell 2(2):14–17CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat de Araújo RA (2010) A quantum-inspired evolutionary hybrid intelligent approach for stock market prediction. Int J Intell Comput Cybern 3(1):24–54MathSciNetMATHCrossRef de Araújo RA (2010) A quantum-inspired evolutionary hybrid intelligent approach for stock market prediction. Int J Intell Comput Cybern 3(1):24–54MathSciNetMATHCrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Ding X et al (2014) Using structured events to predict stock price movement: an empirical investigation. In: The 2014 conference on empirical methods in natural language processing (EMNLP). Association for Computational Linguistics, Doha, pp 1415–1425. https://doi.org/10.3115/v1/d14-1148 Ding X et al (2014) Using structured events to predict stock price movement: an empirical investigation. In: The 2014 conference on empirical methods in natural language processing (EMNLP). Association for Computational Linguistics, Doha, pp 1415–1425. https://​doi.​org/​10.​3115/​v1/​d14-1148
Zurück zum Zitat Dosdoğru AT et al (2018) Assessment of hybrid artificial neural networks and metaheuristics for stock market forecasting. Ç. Ü. Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 24(1):63–78 Dosdoğru AT et al (2018) Assessment of hybrid artificial neural networks and metaheuristics for stock market forecasting. Ç. Ü. Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 24(1):63–78
Zurück zum Zitat Dunne M (2015) Stock market prediction. University College Cork, Cork Dunne M (2015) Stock market prediction. University College Cork, Cork
Zurück zum Zitat Dutta A, Bandopadhyay G, Sengupta S (2012) Prediction of stock performance in the indian stock market using logistic regression. Int J Bus Inf 7(1):105–136 Dutta A, Bandopadhyay G, Sengupta S (2012) Prediction of stock performance in the indian stock market using logistic regression. Int J Bus Inf 7(1):105–136
Zurück zum Zitat Fama EF (1965) Random walks in stock market prices. Financ Anal J 21:55–59CrossRef Fama EF (1965) Random walks in stock market prices. Financ Anal J 21:55–59CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Fama EF (1970) Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work. J Finance 25:383–417CrossRef Fama EF (1970) Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work. J Finance 25:383–417CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Gaius KD (2015) Assessing the performance of active and passive trading on the Ghana stock exchange. University of Ghana, Accra Gaius KD (2015) Assessing the performance of active and passive trading on the Ghana stock exchange. University of Ghana, Accra
Zurück zum Zitat García F, Guijarro F, Oliver J (2018) Hybrid fuzzy neural network to predict price direction in the German DAX-30 index. Technol Econ Dev Econ 24(6):2161–2178CrossRef García F, Guijarro F, Oliver J (2018) Hybrid fuzzy neural network to predict price direction in the German DAX-30 index. Technol Econ Dev Econ 24(6):2161–2178CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Ghaznavi A, Aliyari M, Mohammadi MR (2016) Predicting stock price changes of tehran artmis company using radial basis function neural networks. Int Res J Appl Basic Sci 10(8):972–978 Ghaznavi A, Aliyari M, Mohammadi MR (2016) Predicting stock price changes of tehran artmis company using radial basis function neural networks. Int Res J Appl Basic Sci 10(8):972–978
Zurück zum Zitat Goel SK, Poovathingal B, Kumari N (2016) Applications of neural networks to stock market prediction. Int Res J Eng Technol: IRJET 03(05):2192–2197 Goel SK, Poovathingal B, Kumari N (2016) Applications of neural networks to stock market prediction. Int Res J Eng Technol: IRJET 03(05):2192–2197
Zurück zum Zitat Gupta A, Sharma SD (2014) Clustering-classification based prediction of stock market future prediction. Int J Comput Sci Inf Technol 5(3):2806–2809 Gupta A, Sharma SD (2014) Clustering-classification based prediction of stock market future prediction. Int J Comput Sci Inf Technol 5(3):2806–2809
Zurück zum Zitat Gyan MK (2015) Factors influencing the patronage of stocks, Knu. Kwame Nkrumah University of Science & Technology (KNUST), Kumasi Gyan MK (2015) Factors influencing the patronage of stocks, Knu. Kwame Nkrumah University of Science & Technology (KNUST), Kumasi
Zurück zum Zitat Hegazy O, Soliman OS, Salam MA (2013) A machine learning model for stock market prediction. Int J Comput Sci Telecommun 4(12):17–23 Hegazy O, Soliman OS, Salam MA (2013) A machine learning model for stock market prediction. Int J Comput Sci Telecommun 4(12):17–23
Zurück zum Zitat Henriksson A et al (2016) Ensembles of randomized trees using diverse distributed representation of clinical events. BMC Med Inf Decis Mak 16(2):69MathSciNetCrossRef Henriksson A et al (2016) Ensembles of randomized trees using diverse distributed representation of clinical events. BMC Med Inf Decis Mak 16(2):69MathSciNetCrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Ibrahim SO (2017) Forecasting the volatilities of the Nigeria stock market prices. CBN J Appl Stat 8(2):23–45MathSciNet Ibrahim SO (2017) Forecasting the volatilities of the Nigeria stock market prices. CBN J Appl Stat 8(2):23–45MathSciNet
Zurück zum Zitat Kannan KS et al (2010) Financial stock market forecast using data mining techniques. In: International multiconference of engineers and computer scientists (IMECS) Kannan KS et al (2010) Financial stock market forecast using data mining techniques. In: International multiconference of engineers and computer scientists (IMECS)
Zurück zum Zitat Krollner B, Vanstone B, Finnie G (2010a) Financial time series forecasting with machine learning techniques: a survey. In: European symposium on artificial neural networks: computational and machine learning. Bond University, Bruges, pp 25–30 Krollner B, Vanstone B, Finnie G (2010a) Financial time series forecasting with machine learning techniques: a survey. In: European symposium on artificial neural networks: computational and machine learning. Bond University, Bruges, pp 25–30
Zurück zum Zitat Kumar M, Thenmozhi M (2006) Forecasting stock index movement: a comparison of support vector machines and random forest. In Indian Institute of capital markets 9th capital markets conference paper. Kumar M, Thenmozhi M (2006) Forecasting stock index movement: a comparison of support vector machines and random forest. In Indian Institute of capital markets 9th capital markets conference paper.
Zurück zum Zitat Kuwornu JKM, Victor O-N (2011) Macroeconomic variables and stock market returns: full information maximum likelihood estimation. Res J Finance Account 2(4):49–64 Kuwornu JKM, Victor O-N (2011) Macroeconomic variables and stock market returns: full information maximum likelihood estimation. Res J Finance Account 2(4):49–64
Zurück zum Zitat Lahmiri S (2011) A Comparison of PNN and SVM for stock market trend prediction using economic and technical information. Int J Comput Appl 29(3):975–8887 Lahmiri S (2011) A Comparison of PNN and SVM for stock market trend prediction using economic and technical information. Int J Comput Appl 29(3):975–8887
Zurück zum Zitat Luo F, Wu J, Yan K (2010) A novel nonlinear combination model based on support vector machine for stock market prediction. In: Jinan C (ed) World congress on intelligent control and automation. IEEE, Piscataway, pp 5048–5053 Luo F, Wu J, Yan K (2010) A novel nonlinear combination model based on support vector machine for stock market prediction. In: Jinan C (ed) World congress on intelligent control and automation. IEEE, Piscataway, pp 5048–5053
Zurück zum Zitat Malkiel BG (1999) A random walk down Wall Street: including a life-cycle guide to personal investing. WW Norton & Company Malkiel BG (1999) A random walk down Wall Street: including a life-cycle guide to personal investing. WW Norton & Company
Zurück zum Zitat Metghalchi M, Kagochi J, Hayes LA (2014) Contrarian technical trading rules: evidence from Nairobi stock index. J Appl Bus Res 30(3):833–846CrossRef Metghalchi M, Kagochi J, Hayes LA (2014) Contrarian technical trading rules: evidence from Nairobi stock index. J Appl Bus Res 30(3):833–846CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Mohapatra P, Raj A (2012) Indian stock market prediction using differential evolutionary neural network model. Int J Electron Commun Comput Technol: IJECCT 2(4):159–166 Mohapatra P, Raj A (2012) Indian stock market prediction using differential evolutionary neural network model. Int J Electron Commun Comput Technol: IJECCT 2(4):159–166
Zurück zum Zitat Murekachiro D (2016) A review of artificial neural networks application to stock market predictions. Netw Complex Syst 6(4):2010–2013 Murekachiro D (2016) A review of artificial neural networks application to stock market predictions. Netw Complex Syst 6(4):2010–2013
Zurück zum Zitat Naeini MP, Taremian H, Hashemi HB (2010) Stock market value prediction using neural networks. IEEE, Piscataway, pp 132–136 Naeini MP, Taremian H, Hashemi HB (2010) Stock market value prediction using neural networks. IEEE, Piscataway, pp 132–136
Zurück zum Zitat Nair BB, Mohandas VP, Sakthivel NR (2010) A decision tree-rough set hybrid system for stock market trend prediction. Int J Comput Appl 6(9):1–6 Nair BB, Mohandas VP, Sakthivel NR (2010) A decision tree-rough set hybrid system for stock market trend prediction. Int J Comput Appl 6(9):1–6
Zurück zum Zitat Neelima B, Jha CK, Saneep BK (2012) Application of neural network in analysis of stock market prediction. Int J Comput Sci Technol: IJCSET 3(4):61–68 Neelima B, Jha CK, Saneep BK (2012) Application of neural network in analysis of stock market prediction. Int J Comput Sci Technol: IJCSET 3(4):61–68
Zurück zum Zitat Nikfarjam A, Emadzadeh E, Muthaiyah S (2010) Text mining approaches for stock market prediction. IEEE, vol 4, pp 256–260 Nikfarjam A, Emadzadeh E, Muthaiyah S (2010) Text mining approaches for stock market prediction. IEEE, vol 4, pp 256–260
Zurück zum Zitat Olaniyi S, Adewole K, Jimoh R (2011) Stock trend prediction using regression analysis—a data mining approach. ARPN J Syst Softw 1(4):154–157 Olaniyi S, Adewole K, Jimoh R (2011) Stock trend prediction using regression analysis—a data mining approach. ARPN J Syst Softw 1(4):154–157
Zurück zum Zitat Pimprikar R, Ramachadran S, Senthilkumar K (2017) Use of machine learning algorithms and Twitter sentiment analysis for stock market prediction. Int J Pure Appl Math 115(6):521–526 Pimprikar R, Ramachadran S, Senthilkumar K (2017) Use of machine learning algorithms and Twitter sentiment analysis for stock market prediction. Int J Pure Appl Math 115(6):521–526
Zurück zum Zitat Prem Sankar C, Vidyaraj R, Satheesh Kumar K (2015) Trust based stock recommendation system—a social network analysis approach. In: Procedia computer science: international conference on information and communication technologies (ICICT 2014). Elsevier Masson SAS, pp 299–305. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2015.02.024 Prem Sankar C, Vidyaraj R, Satheesh Kumar K (2015) Trust based stock recommendation system—a social network analysis approach. In: Procedia computer science: international conference on information and communication technologies (ICICT 2014). Elsevier Masson SAS, pp 299–305. https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/​j.​procs.​2015.​02.​024
Zurück zum Zitat Shen S, Jiang H, Zhang T (2012) Stock market forecasting using machine learning algorithms. Department of Electrical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, pp 1–5 Shen S, Jiang H, Zhang T (2012) Stock market forecasting using machine learning algorithms. Department of Electrical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, pp 1–5
Zurück zum Zitat Solanki H (2013) Comparative study of data mining tools and analysis with unified data mining theory. Int J Comput Appl 75(16):23–28 Solanki H (2013) Comparative study of data mining tools and analysis with unified data mining theory. Int J Comput Appl 75(16):23–28
Zurück zum Zitat Talib R et al (2016) Text mining-techniques applications and issues. Int J Adv Comput Sci Appl 7(11):414–418 Talib R et al (2016) Text mining-techniques applications and issues. Int J Adv Comput Sci Appl 7(11):414–418
Zurück zum Zitat Tsaurai K (2018) What are the determinants of stock market development in emerging markets? Acad Account Financ Stud J 22(2):1–11 Tsaurai K (2018) What are the determinants of stock market development in emerging markets? Acad Account Financ Stud J 22(2):1–11
Zurück zum Zitat Tziralis G, Tatsiopoulos I (2007) Prediction markets: an extended literature review. J Predict Mark 1:75–91 Tziralis G, Tatsiopoulos I (2007) Prediction markets: an extended literature review. J Predict Mark 1:75–91
Zurück zum Zitat Umoru D, Nwokoye GA (2018) FAVAR analysis of foreign investment with capital market predictors: evidence on Nigerian and selected African stock exchanges. Acad J Econ Stud 4(1):12–20 Umoru D, Nwokoye GA (2018) FAVAR analysis of foreign investment with capital market predictors: evidence on Nigerian and selected African stock exchanges. Acad J Econ Stud 4(1):12–20
Zurück zum Zitat Uysal AK, Gunal S (2014) The impact of preprocessing on text classification. Inf Process Manage 50:104–112CrossRef Uysal AK, Gunal S (2014) The impact of preprocessing on text classification. Inf Process Manage 50:104–112CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Vaisla SK, Bhatt KA (2010) An analysis of the performance of artificial neural network technique for stock market forecasting. Int J Comput Sci Eng 02(06):2104–2109 Vaisla SK, Bhatt KA (2010) An analysis of the performance of artificial neural network technique for stock market forecasting. Int J Comput Sci Eng 02(06):2104–2109
Zurück zum Zitat Wang L, Qiang W (2011) Stock market prediction using artificial neural networks based on HLP. In: Proceedings—2011 3rd international conference on intelligent human-machine systems and cybernetics, IHMSC 2011, vol 1, pp 116–119. https://doi.org/10.1109/ihmsc.2011.34 Wang L, Qiang W (2011) Stock market prediction using artificial neural networks based on HLP. In: Proceedings—2011 3rd international conference on intelligent human-machine systems and cybernetics, IHMSC 2011, vol 1, pp 116–119. https://​doi.​org/​10.​1109/​ihmsc.​2011.​34
Zurück zum Zitat Wanjawa BW (2016) Predicting future Shanghai stock market price using ANN in the period 21 Sept 2016 to 11 Oct 2016 Wanjawa BW (2016) Predicting future Shanghai stock market price using ANN in the period 21 Sept 2016 to 11 Oct 2016
Zurück zum Zitat Wanjawa BW, Muchemi L (2014) ANN model to predict stock prices at stock exchange markets. Nairobi Wanjawa BW, Muchemi L (2014) ANN model to predict stock prices at stock exchange markets. Nairobi
Metadaten
Titel
A systematic review of fundamental and technical analysis of stock market predictions
verfasst von
Isaac Kofi Nti
Adebayo Felix Adekoya
Benjamin Asubam Weyori
Publikationsdatum
20.08.2019
Verlag
Springer Netherlands
Erschienen in
Artificial Intelligence Review / Ausgabe 4/2020
Print ISSN: 0269-2821
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-7462
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10462-019-09754-z

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 4/2020

Artificial Intelligence Review 4/2020 Zur Ausgabe