Skip to main content
Log in

Detecting nuclear materials smuggling: using radiography to improve container inspection policies

  • Published:
Annals of Operations Research Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper proposes a layered container inspection system for detecting illicit nuclear materials using radiography information. We argue that the current inspection system, relying heavily on the Automated Targeting System (ATS) and passive radiation detectors, is inherently incapable of reliably detecting shielded radioactive materials, especially highly enriched uranium (HEU). This motivates the development of a new inspection system, which is designed to address a fundamental flaw of the ATS-based system, allowing for improved defense against sophisticated adversaries. In the proposed inspection system, all cargo containers go through x-ray imaging equipment first. From the x-ray image, a hardness measure of the container is computed. This hardness measure characterizes how likely it is that shielded HEU, if it does exist in the container, will not be detected in a subsequent passive detection step. Depending on the value of the hardness, the lower-hardness containers are sent to passive detection and the high-hardness containers are sent directly to active detection. This paper explores the trade-off between the detection probability of the new inspection system and the expected sojourn time a container spends in the system. The solution details and decision-making tools for using such a system are provided. Comparisons are made between the proposed system and the current ATS-based nuclear inspection system.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aloise, G. (2007). Combating nuclear smuggling: DHS’s decision to procure and deploy to the next generation of radiation detection equipment is not supported by its cost-benefit analysis (US Government Accountability Office Report GAO-07-581T).

  • AS&E (2008). Cargo & vehicle inspection. http://www.as-e.com/products_solutions/cargo_vehicle_inspection.asp. Accessed 26 December 2008.

  • Ball, D. Y. (1998). The US second line of defense: preventing nuclear smuggling across Russia’s borders. PONARS Policy Memo 50. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/pm_0050.pdf. Accessed 26 December 2008.

  • Bolch, G., Greiner, S., Meer, H. D., & Trivedi, K. S. (2006). Queueing networks and Markov chains: modeling and performance evaluation with computer science application. New Jersey: Wiley.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Boros, E., Fedzhora, L., Kantor, P. B., Saeger, K., & Stround, P. (2006). Large scale LP model for finding optimal container inspection strategies (Rutcor Research Report).

  • Boros, E., Elsayed, E., Kantor, P., Robert, F., & Xie, M. (2008). Optimization problems for port-of-entry detection systems. In Chen, H., & Yang, C. C. (Eds.), Intelligence and security informatics: techniques and applications (pp. 319–335). Berlin: Springer.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Caldwell, S. L. (2008). Supply chain security: examinations of high-risk cargo at foreign seaports have increased, but improved data collection and performance measures are needed (US Government Accountability Office Report GAO-08-187).

  • Cochran, T. B., & McKinzie, M. G. (2008). Detecting nuclear smuggling: radiation monitors at U.S. ports cannot reliably detect highly enriched uranium, which onshore terrorists could assemble into a nuclear bomb. Scientific American, 298(4), 98–104.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fetter, S., Frolov, V. A., Miller, M., Mozley, R., Prilutsky, O. F., Rodionov, S. N., & Sagdeev, R. Z. (1990). Detecting nuclear warheads. Science & Global Security, 1, 225–302.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fritelli, J. F. (2005). Port and maritime security: background issues for congress (CRS Report for Congress, Congressional Research Service, the Library of Congress RL31733).

  • Glaser, A. (2007). Detection of special nuclear materials. Princeton University. http://www.princeton.edu/~aglaser/lecture2007_detection.pdf. Accessed 26 December 2008.

  • International Atomic Energy Agency (2006). Illicit trafficking and other unauthorized activities involving nuclear and radioactive materials fact sheet. http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Features/RadSources/PDF/fact_figures2005.pdf. Accessed 26 December 2008.

  • Kobza, J. E., & Jacobson, S. H. (1996). Addressing the dependency problem in access security system architecture design. Risk Analysis, 16(6), 801–812.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kobza, J. E., & Jacobson, S. H. (1997). Probability models for access security system architectures. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 48(3), 255–263.

    Google Scholar 

  • Madigan, D., Mittal, S., & Roberts, F. (2007). Sequential decision making algorithms for port of entry inspection: overcoming computational challenges. In Muresan, G., Altiok, T., Melamed, B., & Zeng, D. (Eds.), Proceedings of IEEE international conference on intelligence and security informatics (ISI-2007) (pp. 1–7). New Jersey: IEEE Press.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • McLay, L. A., Jacobson, S. H., & Kobza, J. E. (2008). The tradeoff between technology and prescreening intelligence in checked baggage screening for aviation security. Journal of Transportation Security, 1(2), 107–126.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moffitt, L. J., Stranulund, J. K., & Field, B. C. (2005). Inspections to avert terrorism: Robustness under severe uncertainty. Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management 2(3).

  • Morton, D. P., Pan, F., & Sager, K. J. (2007). Models for nuclear smuggling interdiction. IIE Transactions, 39, 3–14.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • O’Hanlon, M. E., Orszag, P. R., Daalder, I. H., Destler, I. M., Gunter, D. L., Lindsay, J. M., Litan, R. E., & Steinberg, J. B. (2003). Protecting the American homeland. Washington: Brookings Institution Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pan, F. (2005). Stochastic network interdiction: models and methods. Ph.D. thesis, University of Texas, Austin, TX.

  • Srichrishna, D., Chari, A. N., & Tisch, T. (2005). Nuclear detection: fixed detectors, portals, and NEST teams won’t work for shielded HEU on a national scale; a distributed network of in-vehicle detectors is also needed to deter nuclear terrorism. http://www.devabhaktuni.us/research/disarm.pdf. Accessed 22 December 2008.

  • Stana, R. M. (2006). Cargo container inspections: preliminary observations on the status of efforts to improve the automated targeting system (US Government Accountability Office Report GAO-06-591T).

  • Stroud, P. D., & Saeger, K. J. (2003). Enumeration of increasing boolean expressions and alternative digraph implementations for diagnostic applications. In Chu, H., Ferrer, J., Nguyen, T., & Yu, Y. (Eds.), Proceedings volume IV, computer, communication and control technologies: I, international institute of informatics and systematics, Orlando, FL (pp. 328–333).

  • Union of Concerned Scientists (2004). Weapon materials basics. http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_weapons_and_global_security/nuclear_terrorism/technical_issues/fissile-materials-basics.html. Accessed 26 December 2008.

  • US Customs House Guide (2008). U.S. customs and border protection initiates use of AS&E’s Z portal vehicle screening system at Southwest border. http://blogs.customhouseguide.com/news/?p=1786. Accessed 26 December 2008.

  • United States Department of Transportation (2007). America’s container ports: delivering the goods (Technical report, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Washington, D.C.).

  • Wein, L. M., Wilkins, A. H., Baveja, M., & Flynn, S. E. (2006). Preventing the importation of illicit nuclear materials in shipping containers. Risk Analysis, 26(5), 1377–1393.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Whitt, W. (1983). The queueing network analyzer. The. Bell System Technical Journal, 62(9), 2779–2815.

    Google Scholar 

  • Whitt, W. (1993). Approximations for the GI/G/m queue. Production and Operations Management, 2(2), 114–161.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • X-5 Monte Carlo Team. (2005). MCNP—a general Monte Carlo N-particle transport code, Version 5. http://mcnp-green.lanl.gov/pdf/MCNP5_Manual_Volume_I_LA-UR-03-1987.pdf. Accessed 26 December 2008.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Gary M. Gaukler.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Gaukler, G.M., Li, C., Cannaday, R. et al. Detecting nuclear materials smuggling: using radiography to improve container inspection policies. Ann Oper Res 187, 65–87 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-010-0717-y

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-010-0717-y

Keywords

Navigation