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Fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment considering local site effects for the portfolio of buildings in Medellín, Colombia

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Abstract

A fully probabilistic seismic risk analysis using a comprehensive approach is conducted for Medellin, the second largest city of Colombia, using a building by building database constructed and complemented from aerial images, considering characteristics such as building use categories, socio-economic levels and replacement values. The seismic hazard used for the analysis corresponds to the most updated study available in the country with the same model that was included in the national building code maps definition. Spectral transfer functions are determined for each of the seismic microzonation zones in order to take into account the dynamic soil response and amplification effects in the risk analysis. Several building types are defined for the city and individual vulnerability functions are assigned to each of them. Risk results are presented in the state of the art metrics such as the loss exceedance curve, probable maximum losses for different return periods, average annual losses and risk maps. The obtained results can be classified by use and socio-economic sectors as well as by structural systems that may help the stakeholders to identify where the risk concentrates.

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Notes

  1. Comprehensive approach to probabilistic risk assessment (www.ecapra.org).

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Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful for the support of the Ministry of Education and Science of Spain “Enfoque integral y probabilista para la evaluación del riesgo sísmico en España”— CoPASRE(CGL2011-29063). Also to the Spain’s Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness in the framework of the researcher’s formation program (FPI).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Edifici C-1, Despatx C-111 Carrer Gran Capita, s/n, Campus Nord UPC, Barcelona, 08034, Spain

    Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Gabriel A. Bernal & Miguel G. Mora

  2. Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, IL, USA

    Daniela Zuloaga-Romero

  3. Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Manizales, Colombia

    Omar-Darío Cardona

Authors
  1. Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez
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  2. Daniela Zuloaga-Romero
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  3. Gabriel A. Bernal
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  4. Miguel G. Mora
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  5. Omar-Darío Cardona
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Correspondence to Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez.

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Salgado-Gálvez, M.A., Zuloaga-Romero, D., Bernal, G.A. et al. Fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment considering local site effects for the portfolio of buildings in Medellín, Colombia. Bull Earthquake Eng 12, 671–695 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-013-9550-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-013-9550-4

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