Modelling transition in land cover highlights forest losses and gains in Southeast Asia

Forest ecosystems in Southeast Asia are currently facing multiple challenges, including threats caused by global trade or local factors such as land conversion. It is therefore crucial to have a better understanding of the mechanisms driving deforestation and forest recovery. In the present study, the losses and gains of forest were quantified over a 27 year period with 300 m-resolution land cover data and data on human population densities over 19 years covering a large area of continental Southeast Asia. The forest dynamics was characterised by different phases that were largely synchronised among countries. The rate of deforestation was related to population density in core forest but not in edge forest. In spite of different national dynamics, all countries showed two concomitant trends: a decrease in the rates of forest loss over the years, and a decrease in the impact of human population density on the rates of forest loss. The importance of local population density for deforestation in core forest have some consequences for management and forest conservation suggesting that migration and local settlements are important drivers of local deforestation in Southeast Asia.