Abstract
Climatic time series from historical documents and instrumental records from China showed temporal and regional patterns in the last two to three centuries, including two multidecadal oscillations at quasi-20-year and quasi-70-year timescales revealed by signal analysis from wavelet transform. Climatic anomalous events on the decadal timescale were identified based on the two oscillations when their positive (or negative) phases coincide with each other to amplify amplitude. The coldest event occurred in the decade of 1965–1975 in eastern China, while the periods of 1920–1930, 1940–1950, and 1988–2000 appeared to be warmer in most parts of China. For the precipitation series in northern China, the dry anomalous event was found in the late 1920s, while the wet anomalous event occurred in the 1950s. A severe drought in 1927–1929 in northern China coincided with the anomalous warm and dry decade, caused large-scale famine in nine provinces over northern China. Climatic anomalous events with a warm-dry or cold-wet association in the physical climate system would potentially cause severe negative impacts on natural ecosystem in the key vulnerable region over northern China. The spatial pattern of summer rainfall anomalies in the eastern China monsoon region showed an opposite variations in phase between the Yellow River Valley (North China) and the mid-low Yangtze River Valley as well as accompanied the shift of the northernmost monsoon boundary. Climatic regime shifts for different time points in the last 200 years were identified. In North China, transitions from dry to wet periods occurred around 1800, 1875, and 1940 while the transitions from wet to dry periods appeared around 1840, 1910, and the late 1970s. The reversal transition in these time points can also be found in the lower Yangtze River. Climatic regime shifts in China were linked to the interaction of mid- and low latitude atmospheric circulations (the westerly flow and the monsoon flow) when they cross the Tibetan Plateau in East Asia.
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Qian, W., Lin, X., Zhu, Y. et al. Climatic regime shift and decadal anomalous events in China. Climatic Change 84, 167–189 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9234-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9234-z