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Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand?

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Abstract

Adaptation is an important element on the climate change policy agenda. Integrated assessment models, which are key tools to assess climate change policies, have begun to address adaptation, either by including it implicitly in damage cost estimates, or by making it an explicit control variable. We analyze how modelers have chosen to describe adaptation within an integrated framework, and suggest many ways they could improve the treatment of adaptation by considering more of its bottom-up characteristics. Until this happens, we suggest, models may be too optimistic about the net benefits adaptation can provide, and therefore may underestimate the amount of mitigation they judge to be socially optimal. Under some conditions, better modeling of adaptation costs and benefits could have important implications for defining mitigation targets.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schloßplatz 1, 2361, Laxenburg, Austria

    Anthony G. Patt & Reinhard Mechler

  2. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, The Netherlands

    Detlef P. van Vuuren, Andries F. Hof & Morna Isaac

  3. Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Frans Berkhout

  4. Center for Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, Oslo, Norway

    Asbjørn Aaheim

Authors
  1. Anthony G. Patt
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  2. Detlef P. van Vuuren
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  3. Frans Berkhout
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  4. Asbjørn Aaheim
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  5. Andries F. Hof
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  6. Morna Isaac
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  7. Reinhard Mechler
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Correspondence to Anthony G. Patt.

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Patt, A.G., van Vuuren, D.P., Berkhout, F. et al. Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand?. Climatic Change 99, 383–402 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9687-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9687-y

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