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Adapting California’s water system to warm vs. dry climates

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Abstract

This paper explores the independent and combined effects of changes in temperature and runoff volume on California’s water supply and potential water management adaptations. Least-cost water supply system adaptation is explored for two climate scenarios: 1) warmer-drier conditions, and 2) warmer conditions without change in total runoff, using the CALVIN economic-engineering optimization model of California’s intertied water supply system for 2050 water demands. The warm-dry hydrology was developed from downscaled effects of the GFDL CM2.1 (A2 emissions scenario) global climate model for a 30-year period centered at 2085. The warm-only scenario was developed from the warm-dry hydrology, preserving its seasonal runoff shift while maintaining mean annual flows from the historical hydrology. This separates the runoff volume and temperature effects of climate change on water availability and management adaptations. A warmer climate alone reduces water deliveries and increases costs, but much less than a warmer-drier climate, if the water supply system is well managed. Climate changes result in major changes in reservoir operations, cyclic storage of groundwater, and hydropower operations.

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Notes

  1. Available at: http://www.water.ca.gov/landwateruse/anaglwu.cfm#

  2. Department of Finance 2050 population estimate available at http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/reports/projections/p-1/

  3. Available at http://www.cdfa.ca.gov/statistics/.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the California Energy Commission Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) program.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Hydrologic Sciences Graduate Group, University of California-Davis, One Shields Ave, Davis, CA, 95616, USA

    Christina R. Connell-Buck

  2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California-Davis, Davis, CA, 95616, USA

    Josué Medellín-Azuara & Jay R. Lund

  3. Department of Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, 32816, USA

    Kaveh Madani

Authors
  1. Christina R. Connell-Buck
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  2. Josué Medellín-Azuara
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  3. Jay R. Lund
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  4. Kaveh Madani
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Correspondence to Christina R. Connell-Buck.

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Connell-Buck, C.R., Medellín-Azuara, J., Lund, J.R. et al. Adapting California’s water system to warm vs. dry climates. Climatic Change 109 (Suppl 1), 133–149 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0302-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0302-7

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