Abstract
Understanding and considering the distribution of per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is important in designing international climate change proposals and incentives for participation. I evaluate historic international emissions distributions and forecast future distributions to assess whether per capita emissions have been converging or will converge. I find evidence of convergence among 23 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), whereas emissions appear to be diverging for an 88-country global sample over 1960–2000. Forecasts based on a Markov chain transition matrix provide little evidence of future emissions convergence and indicate that emissions may diverge in the near term. I also review the shortcomings of environmental Kuznets curve regressions and structural models in characterizing future emissions distributions.
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Joseph E. Aldy: This research was supported by the Repsol YPF/John F. Kennedy School of Government Energy Policy program, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s STAR program, the Switzer Foundation, and the Udall Foundation. Elsa V. Artadi, David Cutler, Gary Chamberlain, Bryan Graham, Bill Hogan, Caroline Hoxby, John List, Kip Viscusi, two anonymous referees, and seminar participants at Harvard University, the Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, and the University of Kentucky provided valuable comments on the draft manuscript. Any errors that remain are solely the responsibility of the author.
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Aldy, J.E. Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Convergence or Divergence?. Environ Resource Econ 33, 533–555 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-005-6160-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-005-6160-x