The REALM modelling shell is widely used in Australia as a water allocation modelling tool. It has been used to develop the Goulburn System Model (GSM) of the Goulburn, Broken, Loddon and Campaspe Rivers in northeastern Victoria. REALM represents the river and irrigation system as a network of storages and carriers. The model has been optimised to best represent the water harvesting and allocation for use by water management authorities. The model is analysed to assess the sensitivity of a subset of the model outputs, to a subset of the system parameters. The New Morris algorithm uses sampling paths generated in the space of the parameters, to generate points at which the model is run (to generate the model outputs). These model runs are then used to estimate the first and second-order effects of the parameters on the outputs. The results illustrate the mild linkage of the Goulburn and Broken systems, and the Broken system also shows differences between minimum and average outflows. The Goulburn is more sensitive to some of the numerical convergence parameters used in the allocation software, while the Broken is less sensitive to these factors. The numerical convergence factors also lead to important second-order effects.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
G.A. Diment, Wide use of the generalised headworks and resources model: REALM, International Hydrology and Water Resource Symposium, Perth, I.E. Aust., NCP No. 91/22 (1991), pp. 579–583.
B.J.C. Perera, B. James and M.D.U. Kularathna, Journal of Environmental Management (in press) (2005).
Murray–Darling Basin Commission, Murray–Darling Basin Cap on Diversions 1997/98 – Striking the Balance, Murray–Darling Basin Commission, Canberra, 1998.
B.J.C. Perera and B. James, REALM – REsource ALlocation Model, Civil and Environmental Engineering Conference: New Frontiers and Challenges, 8–12 November, Bangkok, Thailand, V187–196, 1999.
Water Victoria: A Resource Handbook (Department of Water Resources, Melbourne, Australia, 1989) 311 pp.
K. Fennel, M. Losch, J. Schroter and M. Wenzel, Journal of Marine Systems 28 (2001) 45–63.
J.P. Norton, R. Nathan, G. Podger and R. Vertessy, Sensitivity-assessment needs of complex simulation models for integrated catchment management, Proceedings MODSIM03 (Modelling and Simulation Soc., Aust. and N.Z., 2003) pp. 1667–1672.
A. Saltelli, K. Chan and M. Scott, eds., Sensitivity Analysis (Wiley, Chichester, 2000).
S. Yu. Schreider, B. James, M.P. Seker and P.E. Weinmann, Sensitivity and error propagation analysis for the Goulburn Simulation Model built by REALM, Proceedings MODSIM03 (Modelling and Simulation Soc., Aust. and N.Z., 2003) pp. 1661–1666.
M.D. Morris, Technometrics 33 (1991) 161–174.
F. Campolongo and R. Braddock, Reliability Engineering and System Safety 64 (1999) 1–12.
R. Cropp and R. Braddock, Reliability Engineering and System Safety 78 (2002) 77–83.
B.J.C. Perera and M.P. Seker, Water quality modelling using REALM, 3rd International Hydrology and Water Resource Symposium, I.E. (Aust.), Perth, 20–23 November 2000, pp. 1075– 1080.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Braddock, R.D., Schreider, S.Y. Application of the Morris algorithm for sensitivity analysis of the REALM model for the Goulburn irrigation system. Environ Model Assess 11, 297–313 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-005-9029-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-005-9029-z