Abstract
Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are one of the leading causes of global warming. Therefore, accuracy estimates for greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions are a key element in defining the best strategies for reducing GHG emissions from various source sectors of the economy. In the present study, an initial attempt has been made to estimate and forecast the GHG emissions in Pakistan from five major sectors, such as energy, industrial, agriculture, waste, and land-use change and forestry. The data were taken from the official website of the Pakistan climate database from 1990 to 2016. We employed advanced mathematical modeling, namely a non-homogenous discrete grey model (NDGM), to predict sector-wise GHGs emissions. Moreover, the present study is a milestone in the GHGs growth analysis by utilizing the synthetic relative growth rate (SRGR) and synthetic doubling time model (SDTM). The results reveal that the industry and land-use change and forestry contribute more in terms of increasing GHGs emissions till 2024, whereas agriculture and waste required comparatively less time to reduce GHGs emissions double in number among five sectors. All five sectors show an increasing trend in forecasting GHGs emissions between 1990 and 2016. However, the results indicate that land-use change and forestry and industrial sectors are more likely to be a reason for the increase in GHGs emissions in the future, followed by the agriculture, energy, and waste sectors. The land-use change and forestry was found prone to increase emission in the future, and the doubling time (\({D}_{\mathrm{t}}\)) suggests less time expected to reduce GHGs. Finally, the study has suggested some policies for the policymakers, government, and decision-makers to reduce GHGs emissions and achieve sustainable development.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abas, N., Kalair, A., Khan, N., & Kalair, A. R. (2017). Review of GHG emissions in Pakistan compared to SAARC countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 80, 990–1016. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.04.022.
Aichele, R., & Felbermayr, G. (2013). The effect of the Kyoto protocol on carbon emissions. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 32(4), 731–757. https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.21720.
Akhmat, G., Zaman, K., Shukui, T., Sajjad, F., Khan, M. A., & Khan, M. Z. (2014). The challenges of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution through energy sources: Evidence from a panel of developed countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 21(12), 7425–7435. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-014-2693-2.
Akram, R., Turan, V., Wahid, A., Ijaz, M., Shahid, M. A., Kaleem, S., et al. (2018). Paddy land pollutants and their role in climate change (pp. 113–124). Cham: Springer.
Akram, Z., Engo, J., Akram, U., & Zafar, M. W. (2019). Identification and analysis of driving factors of CO2 emissions from economic growth in Pakistan. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26(19), 19481–19489. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-05281-0.
Baig, M. A., & Baig, M. A. (2014). Impact of CO2 Emissions: Evidence from Pakistan. Pakistan Business Review, 15(4), 618–639.
Bakhshal Shah, S., Harijan, K., Tunio, M. M., Abro, R., Hameed Shaikh, P., Kumar, L., et al. (2018). Economic Viability of photovoltaic power plant for Sukkur-Pakistan. Eurasian Journal of Analytical Chemistry, 13(5), 46.
Balbus, J. M., Maynard, A. D., Colvin, V. L., Castranova, V., Daston, G. P., Denison, R. A., et al. (2007). Meeting report: Hazard assessment for nanoparticles—report from an interdisciplinary workshop. Environmental Health Perspectives, 115(11), 1654–1659. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.10327.
Board, D., Board, N. P., Minister, P., Commission, P., Commission, P., Commission, P., Minister, P., Commission, P., & Minister, P. (2017). Functions & working of planning commission/M/O planning , development & reform main functions main functions, pp. 1–35.
Canadell, J. G., Klepper, G., Raupach, M. R., Marland, G., Ciais, P., Que, C. Le, & Field, C. B. (2007). Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions ´ re. 104(24), 10288–10293.
Chidambarampadmavathy, K., Karthikeyan, O. P., & Heimann, K. (2017). Sustainable bio-plastic production through landfill methane recycling. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 71, 555–562. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.12.083.
Climatelinks. (2019). Greenhouse gas emissions factsheet: Pakistan. https://www.climatelinks.org/resources/greenhouse-gas-emissions-factsheet-pakistan.
Colomb, V., Martel, M., Bockel, L., Martin, S., Chotte, J.-L., & Bernoux, M. (2014). Promoting GHG mitigation policies for agriculture and forestry: A case study in Guadeloupe, French West Indies. Land Use Policy, 39, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.03.004.
Distr. (2003). United nations national communications from parties included in annex i to the convention compilation and synthesis of third national Communications.
Duan, H., Lei, G. R., & Shao, K. (2018). Forecasting crude oil consumption in China using a grey prediction model with an optimal fractional-order accumulating operator. Complexity. https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/3869619.
Franco Solís, A., & De Miguel Vélez, F. J. (2018). Revealing the economic channels of natural impacts: an extended input–output subsystems application to GHG gases and water use. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 61(3), 451–473. https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2017.1318748.
Fulton, L., Mejia, A., Arioli, M., Dematera, K., & Lah, O. (2017). Climate change mitigation pathways for Southeast Asia: CO2 emissions reduction policies for the energy and transport sectors. Sustainability, 9(7), 1160. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9071160.
Gao, M., Mao, S., Yan, X., & Wen, J. (2015). Estimation of Chinese CO2 emission based on a discrete fractional accumulation grey model. Journal of Grey System, 27(4), 114–130.
Gocht, A., Espinosa, M., Leip, A., Lugato, E., Schroeder, L. A., Van Doorslaer, B., & Paloma, S. G. (2016). A grassland strategy for farming systems in Europe to mitigate GHG emissions—An integrated spatially differentiated modelling approach. Land Use Policy, 58, 318–334. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.07.024.
Grunewald, N., & Martinez-Zarzoso, I. (2016). Did the Kyoto Protocol fail? An evaluation of the effect of the Kyoto Protocol on CO2 emissions. Environment and Development Economics, 21(1), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1355770X15000091.
Ikram, M., Mahmoudi, A., Shah, S. Z. A., & Mohsin, M. (2019). Forecasting number of ISO 14001 certifications of selected countries: application of even GM (1,1), DGM, and NDGM models. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26(12), 12505–12521. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-04534-2.
Ikram, M., Zhang, Q., Sroufe, R., & Shah, S. Z. A. (2020a). Towards a sustainable environment: The nexus between ISO 14001, renewable energy consumption, access to electricity, agriculture and CO2 emissions in SAARC countries. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 22, 218–230. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2020.03.011.
Ikram, M., Zhang, Q., & Sroufe, R. (2020b). Future of quality management system (ISO 9001) certification: Novel grey forecasting approach. Total Quality Management and Business Excellence. https://doi.org/10.1080/14783363.2020.1768062.
Ilmas, B., Mir, K. A., & Khalid, S. (2018). Greenhouse gas emissions from the waste sector: a case study of Rawalpindi in Pakistan. Carbon Management, 9(6), 645–654. https://doi.org/10.1080/17583004.2018.1530025.
Janerio, R. (1993). The United Nations conference on environment and development. Journal of Architectural Education, 46(3), 197–198. https://doi.org/10.1080/10464883.1993.10734558.
Javed, A., & Khan, I. (2012). Landuse/Land cover change due to mining activities in Singrauli Industrial belt, Madhya Pradesh using remote sensing and GIS. Journal of Environmental Research and Development, 6(3A), 834–843.
Javed, S. A., & Liu, S. (2018). Predicting the research output/growth of selected countries: application of Even GM (1, 1) and NDGM models. Scientometrics, 115(1), 395–413.
Jiang, M., An, H., Gao, X., Liu, S., & Xi, X. (2019). Factors driving global carbon emissions: A complex network perspective. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 146(April), 431–440. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.04.012.
Johnson, M. A., Bond, T. C., Lam, N., Weyant, C., Chen, Y., Ellis, J., Modi, V., Joshi, S., Yagnaraman, M., & Pennise, D. (2011). In-home assessment of greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions from biomass cookstoves in developing countries (pp. 530–542).
Kamran, M. (2018). Current status and future success of renewable energy in Pakistan. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 82, 609–617. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.09.049.
Kawai, K., & Tasaki, T. (2016). Revisiting estimates of municipal solid waste generation per capita and their reliability. Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management, 18(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10163-015-0355-1.
Khan, M. A., & Ghouri, A. M. (2011). Environmental pollution : Its effects on life and its remedies. International Refereed Research Journal, 2(2), 276–285.
Khan, W. M., & Siddiqui, S. (2017). Estimation of greenhouse gas emissions by household energy consumption: A case study of Lahore, Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology, 14(27), 65–83.
Khan, M. K., Teng, J.-Z., Khan, M. I., & Khan, M. O. (2019). Impact of globalization, economic factors and energy consumption on CO2 emissions in Pakistan. Science of The Total Environment, 688, 424–436. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.065.
Lambin, E. F., Turner, B. L., Geist, H. J., Agbola, S. B., Angelsen, A., Bruce, J. W., et al. (2001). The causes of land-use and land-cover change: Moving beyond the myths. Global Environmental Change, 11(4), 261–269. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0959-3780(01)00007-3.
Liu, S., & Forrest, J. Y. L. (2010). Grey systems: Theory and applications. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag.
Le Quéré, C., Andrew, R. M., Canadell, J. G., Sitch, S., Korsbakken, J. I., Peters, G. P., et al. (2016). Global carbon budget 2016. Earth System Science Data, 8, 605–649. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016.
Lin, B., & Raza, M. Y. (2019). Analysis of energy related CO2 emissions in Pakistan. Journal of Cleaner Production, 219, 981–993. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.02.112.
Liu, P.-J., Meng, P.-J., Liu, L.-L., Wang, J.-T., & Leu, M.-Y. (2012). Impacts of human activities on coral reef ecosystems of southern Taiwan: A long-term study. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 64(6), 1129–1135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2012.03.031.
Liu, S., Yang, Y., & Forrest, J. (2017). Grey data analysis. Singapore: Springer.
Meyer, A. (1999). The Kyoto Protocol and the Emergence of “Contraction and Convergence” as a Framework for an international political solution to greenhouse gas emissions abatement (pp. 291–345). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-47035-6_15.
Michaelowa, A., & Michaelowa, K. (2015). Do rapidly developing countries take up new responsibilities for climate change mitigation? Climatic Change, 133(3), 499–510. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1528-6.
Ngwabie, N. M., Wirlen, Y. L., Yinda, G. S., & VanderZaag, A. C. (2019). Quantifying greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste dumpsites in Cameroon. Waste Management. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2018.02.048.
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. (2014). Pakistan statistical year book. http://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/pakistan-statistical-year-book-2014.
Parveen, S., Bushra, J., & Parveen, B. (2018). A literature review on land use land cover changes. International Journal of Advanced Research, 6(7), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.21474/ijar01/7327.
Purohit, P., Amann, M., Kiesewetter, G., Rafaj, P., Chaturvedi, V., Dholakia, H. H., et al. (2019). Mitigation pathways towards national ambient air quality standards in India. Environment International, 133, 105147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.105147.
Qu, S., Guan, D., Ma, Z., & Yi, X. (2019). A study on the optimal path of methane emissions reductions in a municipal solid waste landfill treatment based on the IPCC-SD model. Journal of Cleaner Production, 222, 252–266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.03.059.
Qureshi, M. I., Rasli, A. M., & Zaman, K. (2016). Energy crisis, greenhouse gas emissions and sectoral growth reforms: Repairing the fabricated mosaic. Journal of Cleaner Production, 112, 3657–3666. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.08.017.
Rehman, A., Jingdong, L., Chandio, A. A., & Hussain, I. (2017). Livestock production and population census in Pakistan: Determining their relationship with agricultural GDP using econometric analysis. Information Processing in Agriculture, 4(2), 168–177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inpa.2017.03.002.
Rehman, E., Ikram, M., Feng, M. T., & Rehman, S. (2020). Sectoral-based CO2 emissions of Pakistan: A novel Grey Relation Analysis (GRA) approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(23), 29118–29129. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-09237-7.
Ren, S., Yin, H., & Chen, X. H. (2014). Using LMDI to analyze the decoupling of carbon dioxide emissions by China’s manufacturing industry. Environmental Development, 9(1), 61–75. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2013.11.003.
Rogelj, J., Den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., Fransen, T., Fekete, H., Winkler, H., et al. (2016). Paris agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C. Nature, 534(7609), 631–639. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18307.
Rothwell, A., Ridoutt, B., Page, G., & Bellotti, W. (2016). Direct and indirect land-use change as prospective climate change indicators for peri-urban development transitions. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 59(4), 643–665. https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2015.1035775.
Şahin, U. (2019). Forecasting of Turkey’s greenhouse gas emissions using linear and nonlinear rolling metabolic grey model based on optimization. Journal of Cleaner Production. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118079.
Schleussner, C.-F., Lissner, T. K., Fischer, E. M., Wohland, J., Perrette, M., Golly, A., et al. (2016). Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C. Earth System Dynamics, 7(2), 327–351. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-327-2016.
Seinfeld, J. H., & Pandis, S. N. (2006). Atmospheric chemistry and physics: from air pollution to climate change, John Wiley & Sons., New York. [online] Available from: http://www.scirp.org/(S(351jmbntvnsjt1aadkposzje))/reference/ReferencesPapers.aspx?ReferenceID=1345321 (Accessed 9 October 2017).
Stiebert, S. (2016). Pakistan low carbon scenario analysis.
Sun, H., Ikram, M., Mohsin, M., & Abbas, Q. (2020). Energy security and environmental efficiency: Evidence from OECD countries. The Singapore Economic Review, 22(10), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0217590819430033.
Szulczyk, K. R., Cheema, M. A., Cullen, R., & Khan, A. R. (2020). Bioelectricity in Malaysia: economic feasibility, environmental and deforestation implications. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 64(2), 294–321. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12345.
Tariq, S., Ul-Haq, Z., Imran, A., Mehmood, U., Aslam, M. U., & Mahmood, K. (2017). CO2 emissions from Pakistan and India and their relationship with economic variables. Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 15(4), 1301–1312. https://doi.org/10.15666/aeer/1504_13011312.
The World Bank. (2020). The World Bank. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.CO2.MANF.ZS.
Turner, B. L., Lambin, E. F., & Reenberg, A. (2007). The emergence of land change science for global environmental change and sustainability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104(52), 20666–20671. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0704119104.
Tzemi, D., & Breen, J. (2019). Reducing greenhouse gas emissions through the use of urease inhibitors: A farm level analysis. Ecological Modelling. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.12.023.
Uddin, M. M. M., & Wadud, M. A. (2014). Carbon emission and economic growth of SAARC countries—A vector autoregressive (Var) analysis. International Journal of Business and Management Review, 2(2), 7–26.
United Nation Climate Change. (2019). Deforestation and forest degradation - Pakistan. https://unfccc.int/climate-action/momentum-for-change/activity-database/reducing-emissions-from-deforestation-and-forest-degradation#:~:text=Pakistan’s forest used to cover, gas emissions by three percent.
United Nations. (2018). Sustainable development goals (SDGs). https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/unosd/documents/37697.Waste to Energy Potential in Pakistan.pdf.
USAID. (2016). Greenhouse gas emissions in Pakistan. Climate Links, 2012, 2015–2016.
WSA. (2019). World steel association (WSA). https://www.worldsteel.org/en/dam/jcr:96d7a585-e6b2-4d63-b943-4cd9ab621a91/World%2520Steel%2520in%2520Figures%25202019.pdf.
Xie, N. M., Liu, S. F., Yang, Y. J., & Yuan, C. Q. (2013). On novel grey forecasting model based on non-homogeneous index sequence. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 37, 5059–5068. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2012.10.037.
Zaks, D. P. M., Barford, C. C., Ramankutty, N., & Foley, J. A. (2009). Producer and consumer responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production—A perspective from the Brazilian Amazon. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/044010.
Zaman, R. (2012). Munich personal RePEc archive CO2 emissions emissions. Trade Openness and GDP Percapita: Bangladesh Perspective.
Zhang, L., Pang, J., Chen, X., & Lu, Z. (2019). Carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from the agricultural sector of China’s main grain-producing areas. Science of The Total Environment, 665, 1017–1025. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.162.
Zheng, C., Wu, W.-Z., Jiang, J., & Li, Q. (2020). Forecasting natural gas consumption of China using a novel grey model. Complexity, 2020, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/3257328.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Rehman, E., Ikram, M., Rehman, S. et al. Growing green? Sectoral-based prediction of GHG emission in Pakistan: a novel NDGM and doubling time model approach. Environ Dev Sustain 23, 12169–12191 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-01163-5
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-01163-5