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Towards long-term population decline: a discussion of relevant issues

Vers un déclin à long terme de la population: discussion des questions pertinentes

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Abstract

This paper contains thoughts on the process of imminent population decline under way in much of the developed world and quite possibly in other world regions as well. We are witnessing the beginnings of a vast trend change which promises to bring to a close a period of population growth that has lasted for several centuries. It can be shown that this great change is a byproduct of the demographic transition that unleashed a number of the forces leading to where we are today. The extent to which much of the developing world will follow the reproductive trends of the developed world, with their social and economic implications, is discussed. The decades ahead for much of the world will lead us into mostly uncharted territory that bears few similarities with past periods of population decline. The purpose of this paper is to stimulate reflection and debate on a subject that looms as perhaps the key social issue of the twenty-first century.

Résumé

Cet article contient des réflexions sur le processus de déclin de la population, déjà en cours dans une grande partie du monde développé, et vraisemblablement dans le reste du monde. Nous assistons actuellement au début d’un retournement de tendance qui devrait mettre fin à une période d’accroissement de la population qui a duré plusieurs siècles. On peut montrer que ce grand changement est un produit de la transition démographique, qui a déclenché des phénomènes menant à la situation actuelle. La question de savoir dans quelle mesure les pays en développement s’aligneront progressivement sur les tendances en matière de reproduction du monde développé est discutée, avec toutes ses implications sociales et économiques. Les décennies à venir mèneront une grande partie du monde dans une ère encore inconnue, avec peu de points communs avec les périodes passées de déclin de la population. Le but de cet article est de stimuler la réflexion et le débat sur un sujet qui s’annonce comme le problème social clé du vingt-et-unième siècle.

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Notes

  1. There have been other periods of prolonged growth, such as the tenth to the mid fourteenth-centuries, but never at such a rapid pace.

  2. Important subpopulations have experienced prolonged periods of population decline. Rural populations in developed nations during the twentieth century are an example of this.

  3. In the case of China, this combination leads to a TFR in 2025 of 1.6, as opposed to the current level of 1.7.

  4. According to the UN projections, with medium fertility estimates (TFR = 2.05 in 2040–2050) world population will peak at mid-century at 8.9 billion, and with low fertility estimates (TFR = 1.56 at mid century), its peak will be reached 10 years earlier at 7.7 billion.

  5. Considering ideational change to be at the very origin of the demographic transition, many authors have overlooked the fact that during its initial stages the principle motivation for fertility control was an attempt of families to compensate for declining mortality (Caldwell, 1976; Kirk, 1996; Lesthaeghe, 1983). The point was to maintain traditional family size in the face of improved health, not to change it. The historic demographic transition was a two-step process, with significant ideational change only prevailing at a second stage (Reher, 2004).

  6. The countries are: Morocco (16.9→27.3), Egypt (17.1→20.4), Syria (13.4→23.5), Pakistan (7.1→16.2), Indonesia (45.3→52.0), Philippines (50.1→52.8), Ecuador (19.5→53.9) and Mexico (30.1→38.6). These figures are based on International Labor Office estimates.

  7. For a review of these issues from a more optimistic perspective, see Easterlin (1996).

  8. See also McDonald (2002, 2006), Caldwell (2004), Demeny (2003), Lutz and Skirbekk (2005).

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  1. Departmento de Sociología II, (Ecología Humana y Población), Facultad de CC. PP. y Sociología, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, 28223, Spain

    David S. Reher

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Correspondence to David S. Reher.

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This paper was originally presented at the IUSSP XXV International Population Conference held in Tours (France) in July of 2005. Suggestions and criticisms offered up by many colleagues has been very useful. In particular, I would like to mention the very helpful indications of Tim Dyson, Jorge Somoza, Massimo Livi Bacci, Linda Newson, Héctor Pérez-Brignoli, Vicente Pérez Moreda and Fernando González-Quiñones.

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Reher, D.S. Towards long-term population decline: a discussion of relevant issues. Eur J Population 23, 189–207 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-007-9120-z

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