Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Fertility Decline During Albania’s Societal Crisis and its Subsequent Consolidation

Déclin de la fécondité albanaise durant la crise et le redressement économique et politique

  • Published:
European Journal of Population / Revue européenne de Démographie Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Cross-sectional comparisons of the decline in fertility in former socialist countries point to a bi-phasic response: a crisis-induced family limitation followed by the postponement of childbearing during economic and political consolidation. In this article, the last two decades of Albania’s fertility transition are documented. The bi-phasic response model is tested in a period analysis of adaptations in marriage and parity-specific fertility to the socio-economic and political transformations since the fall of communist rule. We find that the timing and patterns of changes in Albanian family behaviours generally adhere to the model. Socio-economic differentials and trends are congruent with the major role played by the crisis and structural change. However, the Albanian case also highlights the enduring importance of traditional family formation models during the crisis, as well as among specific subpopulations more recently. These results are discussed with reference to a sociological account of Albanian society.

Résumé

La comparaison des tendances de la fécondité dans les pays anciennement socialistes indique une réponse bi-phasique: la crise a induit une limitation des naissances, suivie par un report des naissances durant la période de redressement économique et politique. Dans cet article, nous décrivons la transition de la fécondité albanaise durant les deux dernières décennies. Le modèle de réponse bi-phasique est testé à l’aide d’une analyse transversale relative à l’adaptation des comportements nuptiaux et féconds aux transformations économiques et politiques survenues depuis la chute du régime communiste. Le calendrier et les modalités des changements de comportements en matière de constitution de la famille en Albanie confirment généralement le modèle. Les différences de comportements entre groupes socioéconomiques, ainsi que leurs tendances, soulignent le rôle majeur de la crise et des changements structurels. Toutefois, le cas de l’Albanie montre la persistance de modèles traditionnels familiaux durant la crise ainsi que plus récemment au sein de certaines sous-populations. Ces résultats sont discutés dans le cadre d’une analyse sociologique de la société albanaise.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. The gross enrolment ratio is defined as the total rate of enrolment in a specific level of education relative to the official school-age population of that level.

  2. This OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) index focuses on the root causes behind gender inequalities and is based on 12 social institutional variables characterising the family code, women's physical integrity, preferences for a son, civil liberties and ownership rights (see http://genderindex.org/methodology).

  3. These two independent samples of women of childbearing ages are representative at the national and urban/rural levels. Respondents were selected within households sampled according to a classic stratified multistage design. The non-response rate was less than 7% (for more information, see Morris et al., 2005 and INSTAT et al., 2010). Both surveys were implemented by the Albanian Institutes of Statistics and Public Health with technical support from the centres for disease control and prevention and macro international, respectively. They represent the main information source on family planning and fertility issues in Albania.

  4. Albania's educational system contains three levels: primary, secondary and tertiary. Compulsory school of 8 years lasts until age 15, followed by a 4-year vocational training or a 4–5 year secondary general school (which can be complemented, respectively, by a 3-year technical school or university degree).

  5. Although anticipatory analysis persists regarding tertiary education, we do not control for enrolment in and attainment of that level for the following reasons: not only does tertiary school attendance correlate with urban status, but our assumption of continued enrolment from age 15 up to the level attained may be violated. Part-time education is common at that level in Albania, and the transition context motivated many people to adjust their higher-level education after spells out of school.

  6. Besides the test of statistical significance of period trends and socio-economic differences, the improvement in the model's fit to the data is compared with that of a reference model excluding period trends and interaction effects. The Bayesian information criterion (BIC) is used which is based on the log-likelihood test, and additionally accounts for the number of events and for the increasing complexity of the model.

  7. Individual records of children aged less than 10 years are matched to married mothers residing in the same family nucleus to obtain the age of the mother at birth. Number of births by age of mother and number of women by age are then estimated for the 1990s through reverse-survival of the children and women enumerated at the census.

  8. Estimates based on the own-children method may also be biased due to uncertainty in mortality estimates. However, the age displacement of births arising from the false linkage of children to women who are not their biological mothers should be limited given the use of family nucleus identifiers.

  9. The product of the synthetic progression ratios to marriage and the first birth, as well as the sum of the average age and duration at the events, converge for 1990 and 2000–01 with the results based, respectively, on vital statistics (Falkingham and Gjonca, 2001) and on the census (Lerch et al., 2010). Further, the constant rates of second births during the 1990s are in line with the trend in period parity progressions estimated from vital statistics for 1990 and from the 2001 census (i.e. rates remained above 60 %).

References

  • Allison, P. D. (1995). Survival analysis using the SAS system: A practical guide. Cary: SAS Institute Inc.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bagavos, C., Tsimbos, C., & Verropoulou, G. (2008). Native and migrant fertility patterns in Greece: A cohort approach. European Journal of Population, 24(3), 245–263.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bideleux, R., & Jeffries, J. (2007). The Balkans: A post-communist history. Abingdon: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Billari, F. C., Philipov, D., & Testa, M. R. (2009). Attitudes, norms and perceived behavioural control: Explaining fertility intentions in Bulgaria. European Journal of Population, 25, 439–465.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Billingsley, S. (2010). The post-communist fertility puzzle. Population Research and Policy Review, 29(2), 193–231.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Billingsley, S. (2011a). Economic crisis and recovery: Changes in second birth rates within occupation classes and educational groups. Demographic Research, 24(16), 375–406.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Billingsley, S. (2011b). Second and third births in Armenia and Moldova: An economic perspective of recent behaviour and current preferences. European Journal of Population, 27(2), 125–155.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carletto, C., Davis, B., Stampini, M., & Zezza, A. (2006). A country on the move: International migration in post-communist Albania. International Migration Review, 40(4), 767–785.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Central Directory of Statistics. (1991). Population and housing census 1989: Principal results. Tirana: Republic of Albania.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cho, L.-J., Retherford, R. D., & Choe, M. K. (1986). The own-children method of fertility estimation. Honolulu: Est-West Centre.

    Google Scholar 

  • Clifford, D., Falkingham, J., & Hinde, A. (2009). Through civil war, food crisis and drought: Trends in fertility and nuptiality in post-soviet Tajikistan. European Journal of Population, 26(3), 325–350.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • de Zwager, N., Gedeshi, I., Germenji, E., & Nikas, C. (2005). Competing for remittances. Tirana: IOM.

    Google Scholar 

  • DeSoto, H., Gordon, P., Gedeshi, I., & Sinoimeri, Z. (2002). Poverty in Albania: A qualitative assessment. In World Bank (Ed.), Europe and Central Asia environmentally and socially sustainable development series. Washington D.C.: World Bank.

  • Dommaraju, P., & Agadjanian, V. (2008). Nuptiality in soviet and post-soviet-central Asia. Asian Population Studies, 4(2), 195–213.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dumani, B. (1995). Natalité et développement socio-économique en Albanie. Cahiers du CIPED 28.

  • Falkingham, J., & Gjonca, A. (2001). Fertility transition in communist Albania, 1950–90. Population Studies, 55(3), 309–318.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feeney, G., & Yu, J. (1987). Period parity progression measures of fertility in China. Population Studies, 26(1), 77–102.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fisher, B. J. (1999). Albanian highland tribal society and family structure in the process of twentieth century transformation. East European Quarterly XXXIII, 3, 281–301.

    Google Scholar 

  • Frejka, T. (2008). Overview Chapter 5: Determinants of family formation and childbearing during the societal transition in Central and Eastern Europe. Demographic Research, 19(7), 139–170.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gabhadino, A., Kasneci, A., & Toro, B. (2010). Insights into the Albanian education system: Trends in attainment and participation. In INSTAT & SDC (Ed.), Socio-demographic statistics in Albania: Selected topics and future developments. Tirana: Shtëpia Botuese & Shtypshkronja.

  • Gal, S., & Kligman, G. (2000). The politics of gender after socialism: A comparative-historical essay. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.

  • Gerber, T. P., & Berman, D. (2010). Entry to marriage and cohabitation in Russia, 1985–2000: Trends, correlates, and implications for the second demographic transition. European Journal of Population, 26, 3–31.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gjonca, A., Aasve, A., & Mencarini, L. (2009). The highest fertility in Europe: For how long? determinants of fertility change in Albania. Demographia English Edition, 52(5), 76–96.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hazans, M., & Trapeznikova, I. (2006). Access to secondary education in Albania: incentives, obstacles, and policy spillovers. BICEPS Working Paper:35.

  • Henry, L. (1952). Fécondité des mariages: Nouvelle méthode de mesure. Population, 7(4), 697–700.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hinde, A. (1998). Demographic methods. London: Arnold.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hoem, J. M., & Kreyenfeld, M. (2006). Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research. Part 1: The role of education in the study of first childbearing. Demographic Research, 15(16), 461–484.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • INSTAT, PHI, & ICF Macro. (2010). Albania demographic and health survey 2008–09. Tirana: Institute of Statistics (INSTAT), Institute of Public Health (PHI) and ICF Macro.

  • Inglehart, R., & Baker, W. E. (2000). Modernization, cultural change and the persistence of traditional values. American Sociological Review, 65(1), 19–51.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • INSTAT. (1999). Population projection 1995–2010. Tirana: Instituti i Statistike, UNFPA.

    Google Scholar 

  • INSTAT. (2004a). People and work in Albania. Tirana: Instituti i Statistike.

    Google Scholar 

  • INSTAT. (2004b). Poverty and inequality mapping in Albania. Tirana: Instituti i Statistikes.

    Google Scholar 

  • INSTAT. (2004c). A profile of poverty and living standards in Albania. Tirana: Instituti i Statistikes.

    Google Scholar 

  • INSTAT. (2005). Becoming an adult: Challenges and potentials of youth in Albania. Tirana: Instituti i Statistikes.

    Google Scholar 

  • INSTAT. (2007). Women and men in Albania 2006. Tirana: Instituti i Statistikes.

    Google Scholar 

  • INSTAT, UNDP, & World Bank. (2009). Albania: Trends in poverty 2002–2005–2008. Tirana: INSTAT.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kohler, H.-P., Billari, F. C., & Ortega, J. A. (2002). The emergence of lowest-low fertility in Europe during the 1990s. Population and Development Review, 28(4), 641–680.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kohler, H.-P., & Kohler, I. (2002). Fertility decline in Russia in the early and mid 1990s: The role of economic uncertainty and labour market crises. European Journal of Population, 18(3), 233–262.

    Google Scholar 

  • Korovilas, J. P. (1999). The Albanian economy in transition: The role of remittances and pyramid investment schemes. Post-Communist Economies, 11(3), 399–415.

  • Kotowska, I., Jozwiak, J., Matysiak, A., & Baranowska, A. (2008). Poland: Fertility decline as a response to profound societal and labour market changes? Demographic Research, 19(22), 795–854.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lerch, M. forthcoming. Urbanisation et transition de la fécondité en Albanie. Revue Quetelet/Quetelet Journal.

  • Lerch, M., Subashi, B., Nesturi, M., Galanxhi, E., & Wanner, P. (2010). Regional demographic dynamics in Albania. In INSTAT & SDC (Ed.), Socio-demographic statistics in Albania: Selected topics and future developments. Tirana: Shtëpia Botuese & Shtypshkronja.

  • Lerch, M., & Wanner, P. (2008). Demographic data in Albania: Results of an assessment. Working paper of the Laboratory of Demographic Studies. Geneva: University of Geneva.

  • Lesthaeghe, R., & Surkyn, J. (2002). New forms of household formation in Central and Eastern Europe: Are they related to newly emerging value orientations?. In Interface Demography (Ed.), Interuniversity papers in demography. Brussels: Vrije Universiteit Brussel.

  • Meski, E., & Iaquinta, P. (1991). Aspects de l’évolution démographique en Albanie. Population, 46(3), 679–692.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morris, L., Herold, J., Bino, S., Yili, A., & Jackson, D. (2005). Reproductive health survey Albania 2002: Final report. Tirana: Institute of Public Health (IPH), Albania Ministry of Health, Institute of Statistics (INSTAT).

  • Muresan, C., & Hoem, J. M. (2010). The negative educational gradients in Romanian fertility. Demographic Research, 22(4), 95–114.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Murzaku, I. A., & Dervishi, Z. (2003). Albanians’ first post-communist decade. Values in transition: Traditional or liberal? East European Quaterly XXXVIII, 2, 231–256.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mussino, E., & Strozza, S. (2012). The fertility of immigrants after arrival: The Italian case. Demographic Research, 26(4), 99–130.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ni-Bhrolchain, M. (1987). Period parity progression ratios and birth intervals in England an Wales, 1941–1971: A synthetic life table analysis. Population Studies, 41(1), 103–125.

    Google Scholar 

  • Philipov, D. (2002). Fertility in times of discontinuous societal change: the case of Central and Eastern Europe. MPIDR Working Paper (WP 2002-024).

  • Philipov, D., & Dorbritz, J. (2003). Demographic consequences of economic transition in countries of Central and Eastern Europe. In Council of Europe (Ed.), Population Studies No. 39. Strasbourg: Council of Europe Publishing.

  • Picard, N., & Wolff, F. C. (2010). Measuring educational inequalities: A method and an application to Albania. Journal of Population Economics, 23(3), 989–1023.

    Google Scholar 

  • Potancokova, M., Vano, B., Pilinska, V., & Jurcova, D. (2008). Slovakia: Fertility between tradition and modernity. Demographic Research, 19(25), 973–1018.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pritchett-Post, S. E. (1998). Women in modern Albania: Firsthand accounts of culture and conditions from over 200 interviews. Jefferson (North Carolina): McFarland & Company.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rodin, J. (2011). Fertility intentions and risk management: Exploring the fertility decline in eastern Europe during transition. Ambio, 40, 221–230.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sardon, J.-P. (2000). L’évolution démographique des Balkans depuis la fin de la décennie 1980. Population, 55(4–5), 765–786.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sobotka, T. (2003). Le retour de la diversité: la brusque évolution de la fécondité en Europe centrale et orientale après la chute des régimes communistes. Population, 58(4/5), 511–547.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sobotka, T. (2004). Is lowest-low fertility in Europe explained by the postponement of childbearing. Population and Development Review, 30(2), 195–220.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sobotka, T. (2008). Overview chapter 6: The diverse faces of the second demographic transition in Europe. Demographic Research, 19(8), 171–224.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sobotka, T., St’astna, A., Zeman, K., Hamplova, D., & Kantorova, V. (2008). Czech Republic: A rapid transformation of fertility and family behaviour after the collapse of state socialism. Demographic Research, 19(14), 403–454.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Spoorenberg, T. (2009). The impact of the political and economic transition on fertility and family formation in Mongolia. Asian Population Studies, 5(2), 127–151.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Spoorenberg, T. forthcoming. Fertility changes in Central Asia since 1980. Asian Population Studies.

  • Thornton, A., & Philipov, D. (2007). Developmental idealism and family and demographic change in Central and Eastern Europe. European Demographic Research Papers. Vienna: Vienna Institute of Demography.

  • Tsimbos, C. (2008). Immigrant and native fertility in Greece: New estimates and population prospects (2005–2025). Population Review, 47(2), 67–84.

    Google Scholar 

  • UNDP. (2000). Albanian human development report. Tirana: UNDP.

  • United Nations. (2011). World population prospects: The 2010 revision. United Nations: Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.

    Google Scholar 

  • USAID. (2007). Albania: Family planning situation analysis 2007. Arlington: John Snow, Inc./Europe and Euroasia Regional Family Planning Activity.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vickers, M., & Pettifer, J. (2000). Albania: From anarchy to a Balkan identity (2nd ed.). New York: New York University Press.

  • World Bank. (2005). Poverty and education in Albania: Who benefits from public spending?. Washington D.C: Human Development Sector Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region, World Bank.

  • World Bank. (2007). Albania: Urban growth, migration and poverty reduction. Washington: Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region, World Bank.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zabel, C. (2009). Do imputed education histories provide satisfactory results in fertility analysis in the western German context? Demographic Research, 21(6), 135–176.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The author is thankful to Philippe Wanner, Thomas Spoorenberg and the reviewers of this study for their comments and constructive suggestions. The author would also like to acknowledge the Albanian Institute of Statistics for access to the data of the DHS 2008/9 and the 2001 Census.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Demographic and Life Course Studies, University of Geneva, 40, Boulevard Pont-d’Arve, 1205, Geneva, Switzerland

    Mathias Lerch

Authors
  1. Mathias Lerch
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Mathias Lerch.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Lerch, M. Fertility Decline During Albania’s Societal Crisis and its Subsequent Consolidation. Eur J Population 29, 195–220 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-012-9282-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-012-9282-1

Keywords

Mots clés

Search

Navigation