Stability Analysis on Urban Slopes: Case Study of an Anthropogenic-Induced Landslide in São José dos Campos, Brazil

This work presents the natural and anthropogenic drivers of a landslide event in the city of São José dos Campos, Brazil. By using stability analysis coupled with transient flux in non-saturated soil, it was found that an early warning for the event would be unfeasible with just the use of pluviometric data, given the local anthropic changes on the terrain. Rainfall was not the main trigger of the landslide after taking into account local characteristics, such as the high vertical section, a water tank leakage and surcharge over the slope. Considering that similar conditions are found in most areas of landslides in Brazil, numerical modeling that integrates such drivers, as well as monitoring of rainfall, soil moisture and soil suction, is a promising tool for the establishment of thresholds for landslides in early warning systems.