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Agent-Based Simulation of Holocene Monsoon Precipitation Patterns and Hunter-Gatherer Population Dynamics in Semi-arid Environments

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Abstract

Based on archaeological evidence from Kutch-Saurashtra (N Gujarat, NW India), we use agent-based modelling (ABM) to explore the persistence of hunter-gatherer (HG) groups in semi-arid environments in the mid and late Holocene. Agents interact within a realistic semi-arid environment dominated by the monsoon. Precipitation trends are modelled from instrumental records (1871–2008) calibrated with existing models for the Asian monsoon in the Holocene (c. 12 ka–present). Experiments aim at exploring dependencies between population dynamics and climate-driven environmental change (in terms of resource availability) for precipitation patterns at the local, regional and continental scales. Resources are distributed across a simplified ground model. Average yearly precipitation (AYP, i.e. mean) and variance in yearly precipitation (VYP, i.e. standard deviation) are the main parameters affecting resource availability in the simulations. We assess the effects of environmental change on HG populations at different timescales: (1) patterns of seasonal (inter-annual) resource availability, (2) effects of changes in mean precipitation trends over the long (Pleistocene–Holocene) and the mid (Holocene, millennial) periods, and (3) effects of intra-annual precipitation variability, i.e. changes in standard deviation from mean precipitation trends over the short period (annual to decadal). Simulations show that (1) strong seasonality is coherent with the persistence of HG populations in India, independently of the geographical scale of the precipitation models, (2) changes in AYP over the mid period (Holocene) are not sufficient to explain the disappearance of HG populations in Kutch-Saurashtra (K-S) 4 ka and (3) precipitation variability (VYP) over the short period (annual to decadal) is the main parameter affecting population performance and overall ecosystem dynamics. To date, sufficiently refined palaeoclimatic records do not exist for the study area, but higher VYP values 4 ka do not exclude the possibility that other factors may have driven the disappearance of HG populations in Kutch-Saurashtra.

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Acknowledgments

This research has been supported by the SimulPast Project – Consolider Ingenio 2010 (CSD2010-00034, PI M. Madella), funded by the former Spanish Ministry for Science and Innovation (MICINN). AT, BR, CL, NL, MS and XRC have worked on this paper with contracts from the SimulPast project. AB with a contract from the Juan de la Cierva Program, funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO). We wish to thank two anonymous reviewers for helping us improve the original text, H. Geffner for his generous support and insight and F. Cecília Conesa for his help with climate data mining.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Complexity and Socio-ecological Dynamics (CaSEs, www.cases-bcn.net), Istitució Milà i Fontanals, Spanish National Research Council (IMF-CSIC), C/Egipciaques 15, 08001, Barcelona, Spain

    A. L. Balbo, B. Rondelli, C. Lancelotti & M. Madella

  2. Barcelona Supercomputing Centre (BSC), Nexus II Building, C/Jordi Girona 29, 08034, Barcelona, Spain

    X. Rubio-Campillo, A. Torrano & C. Montañola

  3. School of Computer Science and Information Technology, RMIT University of Melbourne, 3001, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

    M. Ramírez

  4. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB), Edifici C Campus de la UAB, Bellaterra (Cerdanyola del Vallès), 08193, Barcelona, Spain

    M. Salpeteur & V. Reyes-García

  5. Department of Computer Science and Software Engineering, University of Melbourne, Parkville 3010, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

    N. Lipovetzky

  6. Catalan Institute of Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain

    V. Reyes-García & M. Madella

  7. Departament d′Estadística i Investigació Operativa, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (EIO-UPC), C/Jordi Girona 1-3, 08034, Barcelona, Spain

    C. Montañola

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  1. A. L. Balbo
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  9. V. Reyes-García
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Correspondence to A. L. Balbo.

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Balbo, A.L., Rubio-Campillo, X., Rondelli, B. et al. Agent-Based Simulation of Holocene Monsoon Precipitation Patterns and Hunter-Gatherer Population Dynamics in Semi-arid Environments. J Archaeol Method Theory 21, 426–446 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10816-014-9203-1

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