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Life expectancy and economic growth: the role of the demographic transition

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Abstract

This paper investigates the hypothesis that the causal effect of life expectancy on income per capita growth is non-monotonic. This hypothesis follows from the recent literature on unified growth, in which the demographic transition represents an important turning point for population dynamics and hence plays a central role for the transition from stagnation to growth. Results from different empirical specifications and identification strategies document that the effect is non-monotonic, negative (but often insignificant) before the onset of the demographic transition, but strongly positive after its onset. The results provide a new interpretation of the contradictory existing evidence and have relevant policy implications.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy

    Matteo Cervellati

  2. University of St. Gallen, St. Gallen, Switzerland

    Uwe Sunde

  3. IZA, Bonn, Germany

    Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde

  4. CEPR, London, UK

    Uwe Sunde

Authors
  1. Matteo Cervellati
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  2. Uwe Sunde
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Correspondence to Uwe Sunde.

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Cervellati, M., Sunde, U. Life expectancy and economic growth: the role of the demographic transition. J Econ Growth 16, 99–133 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-011-9065-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-011-9065-2

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