Abstract
Objectives
To test the generalizability of previous crime and place trajectory analysis research on a different geographic location, Vancouver BC, and using alternative methods.
Methods
A longitudinal analysis of a 16-year data set using the street segment as the unit of analysis. We use both the group-based trajectory model and a non-parametric cluster analysis technique termed k-means that does not require the same degree of assumptions as the group-based trajectory model.
Results
The majority of street blocks in Vancouver evidence stable crime trends with a minority that reveal decreasing crime trends. The use of the k-means has a significant impact on the results of the analysis through a reduction in the number of classes, but the qualitative results are similar.
Conclusions
The qualitative results of previous crime and place trajectory analyses are confirmed. Though the different trajectory analysis methods generate similar results, the non-parametric k-means model does significantly change the results. As such, any data set that does not satisfy the assumptions of the group-based trajectory model should use an alternative such as k-means.
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Notes
Routine activity theory, geometric theory of crime, rational choice theory, and crime pattern theory.
For Vancouver, approximately 25 % of calls-for-services amongst the 22 index crimes examined from 1991 to 2006 were located at intersections and subsequently excluded from the analyses.
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Curman, A.S.N., Andresen, M.A. & Brantingham, P.J. Crime and Place: A Longitudinal Examination of Street Segment Patterns in Vancouver, BC. J Quant Criminol 31, 127–147 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-014-9228-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-014-9228-3