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Scale dependence of felid predation risk: identifying predictors of livestock kills by tiger and leopard in Bhutan

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Abstract

Context

Livestock predation by tiger and leopard in Bhutan is a major threat to the conservation of these felids. Conflict mitigation planning would benefit from an improved understanding of the spatial pattern of livestock kills by the two predators.

Objectives

We aimed to identify the landscape features that predict livestock kills by tiger and leopard throughout Bhutan. Our goals were to: (1) identify the predictors that have the largest influence in determining livestock kills, (2) assess the influence of scale across the different predictors evaluated and identify the scale at which each was most important.

Methods

We used livestock kills obtained from compensation records of tiger (n = 326) and leopard (n = 377) across Bhutan between 2003 and 2012 to run predation risk models with MaxEnt algorithm, using a multi-scale modeling approach (1, 2, 4, 8 and 16 km).

Results

Human-presence (density of settlements and roads) and land-cover (percentage of tree cover and meadow patches) were the main variables contributing to livestock kills by both species. Livestock kills were likely driven by a trade-off between livestock density and predator ecology, and the balance of this trade-off varied with scale. Risk maps revealed different hotspots for tiger and leopard kills, and analysis showed both species preferentially killed equids over other livestock types.

Conclusions

Our results highlight the importance of evaluating scale when investigating the spatial attributes of livestock kills by tiger and leopard. Our findings provide guidance for reducing conflict between humans and large felids throughout the country.

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Acknowledgments

We thank the Department of Forest and Park Services, Royal Government of Bhutan for making the livestock predation records available to us for the purposes of this study. We are also grateful to the park and forest officials, veterinarians and community leaders involved in gathering the data. Thanks to Arjun Gopalaswamy, Jan F. Kamler and anonymous reviewers for providing feedback. Funding for the digitizing of the records and disseminations of the preliminary findings of the study was provided by the Rufford Foundation (Rufford Small Grant funding scheme). This work was done primarily while SRG was at WildCRU undertaking the International Postgraduate Diploma in Practical Wildlife Conservation Practice at the Recanati-Kaplan Centre.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Wildlife Conservation Research Unit, The Recanati-Kaplan Centre, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Tubney House, Abingdon Road, Tubney, OX13 5QL, UK

    Susana Rostro-García, Leandro Abade, Christos Astaras & David W. Macdonald

  2. Department of Forest and Park Services, Jigme Dorji National Park, Gasa, Bhutan

    Lhendup Tharchen

  3. Rocky Mountain Research Station, U.S. Forest Service, Flagstaff, AZ, 86001, USA

    Samuel A. Cushman

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  1. Susana Rostro-García
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  2. Lhendup Tharchen
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  3. Leandro Abade
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  5. Samuel A. Cushman
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  6. David W. Macdonald
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Correspondence to Susana Rostro-García.

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Rostro-García, S., Tharchen, L., Abade, L. et al. Scale dependence of felid predation risk: identifying predictors of livestock kills by tiger and leopard in Bhutan. Landscape Ecol 31, 1277–1298 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-015-0335-9

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