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Back analysis of landslide susceptibility zonation mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake: an assessment of the reliability of susceptibility zoning maps

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Abstract

The October 2005 earthquake triggered several thousand landslides in the Lesser Himalaya of Kashmir in northern Pakistan and India. Analyses of ASTER satellite imagery from 2001 were compared with a study undertaken in 2005; the results show the extent and nature of pre- and co-/post-seismic landsliding. Within a designated study area of ~2,250 km2, the number of landslides increased from 369 in 2001 to 2,252 in October 2005. Assuming a balanced baseline landsliding frequency over the 4 years, most of the new landslides were likely triggered by the 2005 earthquake and its aftershocks. These landslides mainly happened in specific geologic formations, along faults, rivers and roads, and in shrubland/grassland and agricultural land. Preliminary results from repeat photographs from 2005 and 2006 after the snowmelt season reveal that much of the ongoing landsliding occurred along rivers and roads, and the extensive earthquake-induced fissuring. Although the susceptibility zoning success rate for 2001 was low, many of the co-/post-seismic landsliding in 2005 occurred in areas that had been defined as being potentially dangerous on the 2001 map. While most of the area in 2001 was (very) highly susceptible to future landsliding, most of the area in 2005 was only moderate to low susceptible, that is, most of the landsliding in 2005 actually occurred in the potentially dangerous areas on the 2001 map. This study supports the view that although susceptibility zoning maps represent a powerful tool in natural hazard management, caution is needed when developing and using such maps.

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Acknowledgments

We thank the National Science Foundation (EAR-0602675) and The University of Montana for financial support, Mrs. Aisha Khan (Mountain and Glaciers Protection Agency), Major General Nadeem Ahmed, and the Pakistan Army for field support. Thanks to the United Nations Joint Logistic Centre (UNJLC) in Islamabad for some GIS data and to Jeffrey Olsenholler (University of Nebraska-Omaha) for ASTER DEM generation. Our thanks also go to Karen Sudmeier-Rieux, Institute of Geomatics and Risk Analysis at University of Lausanne, and Ramesh Singh, Chapman University, for helpful discussions of results.

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  1. Department of Geography, The University of Montana, Missoula, MT, 59812, USA

    Ulrich Kamp & Benjamin J. Growley

  2. Department of Geology, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, 45221, USA

    Lewis A. Owen & Ghazanfar A. Khattak

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  1. Ulrich Kamp
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Correspondence to Ulrich Kamp.

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Kamp, U., Owen, L.A., Growley, B.J. et al. Back analysis of landslide susceptibility zonation mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake: an assessment of the reliability of susceptibility zoning maps. Nat Hazards 54, 1–25 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9451-7

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