Abstract
Taiwan is a mountainous country, so there is an ever present danger of landslide disasters during the rainy seasons or typhoons. This study aims to develop a fuzzy-rule-based risk assessment model for debris flows and to verify the accuracy of risk assessment so as to help related organizations reduce losses caused by debris flows. The database is comprised of information from actual cases of debris flows that occurred in the Hualien area of Taiwan from 2007 to 2008. The established models can assess the likelihood of the occurrence of debris flows using computed indicators, verify modeling errors, and make comparisons between the existing models for practical applications. In the establishment of a fuzzy-based debris flow risk assessment model, possible for accounting it on the basis of far less information regarding a real system and the information can be of an uncertain, fuzzy or inexact character, the influential factors affecting debris flows include the average terrain slope, catchment area, effective catchment area, accumulated rainfall, rainfall intensity, and geological conditions. The results prove that the risk assessment model systems are quite suitable for debris flow risk assessment, with a resultant ratio of success 96 % and a normalized relative error 4.63 %.
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Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the National Science Council of the Republic of China, Taiwan, for their financial support of this research under Contract Nos. NSC 96-2221-E-035-038, 100-2221-E-022-013-MY2 and 100-2628-E-022-002-MY2.
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Lin, JW., Chen, CW. & Peng, CY. Potential hazard analysis and risk assessment of debris flow by fuzzy modeling. Nat Hazards 64, 273–282 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0236-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0236-z