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Probabilistic earthquake risk assessment using CAPRA: application to the city of Barcelona, Spain

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Abstract

The risk evaluation model CAPRA (Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment) is a techno-scientific methodology and information platform, composed of tools for evaluating and communicating risk at various territorial levels. The model allows evaluating losses on exposed elements using probabilistic metrics, such as the loss exceedance curve, the expected annual loss and the probable maximum loss, useful for multi-hazard risk analyses. In this article, the process of probabilistic seismic risk analysis is described, explaining the main features of the CAPRA modules of hazard, vulnerability and risk estimation applied to the city of Barcelona, Spain. In addition, according to the physical risk results and the information on the socioeconomic indicators of the city, this article presents the holistic evaluation of seismic risk, which is a valuable result to facilitate the integrated risk management by the different stakeholders involved in risk reduction decision making.

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Acknowledgments

This work has been partially sponsored by the European Commission (project Methods for the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe, MOVE, FP7-ENV-2007-1-211590) and DESURBS-FP7-2011-261652. The authors are grateful for this support as well as the grant of the Ministry of Education and Science of Spain for the implementation of the project “Comprehensive Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Spain”-CoPASRE (CGL2011-29063).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre Internacional de Mètodes Numèrics en Enginyeria (CIMNE), Universidad Politécnica de Cataluña, Campus Norte, C/Gran Capitán sn Mod. C1, 08034, Barcelona, Spain

    Mabel C. Marulanda, Martha L. Carreño & Alex H. Barbat

  2. Instituto de Estudios Ambientales (IDEA), Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Manizales, Cra 27 No.64-60, Manizales, Colombia

    Omar D. Cardona

  3. Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Mexico, DF, Mexico

    Mario G. Ordaz

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  1. Mabel C. Marulanda
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  2. Martha L. Carreño
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  3. Omar D. Cardona
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  4. Mario G. Ordaz
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  5. Alex H. Barbat
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Correspondence to Mabel C. Marulanda.

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Marulanda, M.C., Carreño, M.L., Cardona, O.D. et al. Probabilistic earthquake risk assessment using CAPRA: application to the city of Barcelona, Spain. Nat Hazards 69, 59–84 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0685-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0685-z

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