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South African droughts and decadal variability

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Abstract

We explore the historical occurrence of extensive droughts over South Africa within the context of decadal climate variability. A Standardized Precipitation Index dataset is developed and used to assess the spatial extent of droughts in South Africa for the period 1920–2014. The most extensive droughts over the period at various time scales are identified and discussed. Results of a wavelet analysis are also presented towards identifying statistically significant regional climate variation with which the occurrence of droughts is associated. The occurrence of drought with respect to the El Niño Southern Oscillation and decadal climate variability is also considered. Significant associations between short-term droughts and decadal variability are pointed out. An overview of global sea surface temperature and Southern Hemisphere sea-level pressure associations with three prominent scales of multi-year climate variability is given. Dry epochs at the most prominent time scales are shown to be significantly negatively related to the Southern Annular Mode and associated sea surface temperature anomalies in the mid-to-high southern latitudes. Relations with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Inter-Decadal Pacific Oscillation and ENSO, which are all associated with a Southern Annular Mode of opposite sign, are also highlighted.

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Acknowledgments

The work completed for this manuscript was in partial fulfilment of the “Inputs to Indicative Risk Profile for Drought” project deliverables, with support from the National Disaster Management Centre, South Africa. Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project dataset is provided by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (DOE INCITE) Program, Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Agricultural Research Council - Institute for Soil, Climate and Water, Pretoria, South Africa

    J. Malherbe & P. Maluleke

  2. Centre for Agroecology, Water and Resilience, Coventry University, Coventry, UK

    B. Dieppois

  3. African Climate Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa

    B. Dieppois

  4. National Disaster Management Centre, Pretoria, South Africa

    M. Van Staden & D. L. Pillay

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  1. J. Malherbe
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Correspondence to J. Malherbe.

Appendix

Appendix

See Figs. 14, 15, 16 and 17.

Fig. 14
figure 14

Most extensive droughts (severe to extreme) since 1920 at the 12-month time scale ending June

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Fig. 15
figure 15

Most extensive droughts (severe to extreme) since 1920 at the 24-month time scale ending June

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Fig. 16
figure 16

Most extensive droughts (severe to extreme) since 1920 at the 36-month time scale ending June

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Fig. 17
figure 17

Most extensive droughts (severe to extreme) since 1920 at the 60-month time scale ending June

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Malherbe, J., Dieppois, B., Maluleke, P. et al. South African droughts and decadal variability. Nat Hazards 80, 657–681 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1989-y

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