nach oben

Transportation

Erschienen in:

01.07.2007 | Original Paper

Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: literature review and new results for The Netherlands

verfasst von: Gerard de Jong, Andrew Daly, Marits Pieters, Stephen Miller, Ronald Plasmeijer, Frank Hofman

Erschienen in: Transportation | Ausgabe 4/2007

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config

KI-gestützte Suche

Aus

Abstract

This paper provides a review of transport model applications that not only provide a central traffic forecast (or forecasts for a few scenarios), but also quantify the uncertainty in the traffic forecasts in the form of a confidence interval or related measures. Both uncertainty that results from using uncertain inputs (e.g. on income) and uncertainty in the model itself are treated. The paper goes on to describe the methods used and the results obtained for a case study in quantifying uncertainty in traffic forecasts in The Netherlands.

Nächster Artikel Land use-transportation scenario planning: promise and reality

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 102.000 Bücher
über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 67.000 Bücher
über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

For non-home-based purposes, trip frequencies are modelled rather than tour frequencies; mode and destination choice are also modelled at trip level for these purposes.

There is a computer routine QUAD (from ‘quadratic’) within the LMS that produces the joint distribution of socio-economic attributes of the households, given the total population and the marginal distributions for these attributes, both from external sources. This routine is based on quadratic optimisation, following Daly (1998).

The fact that changes in time and cost do not affect tour frequencies is simply due to model specification: the tour frequency models do not include an ‘accessibility’ effect.

The LMS base matrices were estimated on multiple data sources using formal maximum likelihood methods. This means that standard deviations for matrix uncertainty should be available and could be used in simulation methods to include uncertainty from the base matrices.

Armoogum, J.: Measuring the impact of uncertainty in travel demand modelling with a demographic approach. Paper presented at the European Transport Conference (2003)

Ashley, D.J.: Uncertainty in the context of highway appraisal. Transportation. 9, 249–267 (1980)CrossRef

Ben-Akiva, M.A., Lerman, S.R.: Discrete Choice Analysis. The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts (1985)

Beser Hugosson, M.: Quantifying uncertainties in the SAMPERS long distance forecasting system. Paper presented at the WCTR 2004, Istanbul (2004)

Beser Hugosson, M.: Quantifying uncertainties in a national forecasting model. Transportation Research A. 39A(6), 531–547 (2005)

Boyce, A.M.: Risk analysis for privately funded transport schemes. Paper presented at the European Transport Conference (1999)

Boyce, A.M., Bright, M.J.: Reducing or managing the forecasting risk in privately-financed projects. Paper presented at the European Transport Conference (2003)

Brundell-Freij, K.: How good is an estimated logit models? Estimation accuracy analysed by Monte Carlo simulations. Paper presented at the European Transport Conference (1997)

Brundell-Freij, K.: Sampling, specification and estimation as sources of inaccuracy in complex transport models—some examples analysed by Monte Carlo simulation and bootstrap. Paper presented at the European Transport Conference (2000)

Cirillo, C., Daly, A.J., Lindveld, K.: Eliminating bias due to the repeated measurements problem. In: de Ortúzar, J.D. (ed.) Stated preference Modelling Techniques. PTRC, London (2000)

Daly, A.J.: Prototypical Sample Enumeration as a Basis for Forecasting with Disaggregate Models. Paper presented at the European Transport Conference (1998)

Daly, A.J.: National models. In: Hensher, D.A., Button, K.J. (eds.) Handbook of Transport Modelling. Elsevier Science, Oxford (2000)

Daly, A.J., Fox, J., Tuinenga, J.G.: Pivot-point procedures in practical travel demand forecasting. Paper presented at European Regional Science Association meeting 2005, Amsterdam (2005)

Ecorys. Rapport Doorstroomroute A4. Ecorys, Rotterdam (2003)

Fowkes, T.: The influence of modelling error on the shapes of estimated demand functions. Paper presented at the European Transport Conference (1995)

Grue, B.: Uncertainty in the Norwegian national transportation model. Paper presented at the Trafikdage 1999. Aalborg University, Denmark (1999)

Gunn, H.F.: An overview of European national models. In: Lundqvist, L., Mattsson, L.-G. (eds.) National Transport Models: Recent Developments and Prospects. The Swedish Transport and Communications Research Board, Stockholm (1999)

Hess, S., Polak, J., Daly, A.J.: On the performance of the shuffled Halton sequence in the estimation of discrete choice models. Paper presented at the European Transport Conference (2003)

Jong, G. de: Some joint models of car ownership and car use, PhD thesis, University of Amsterdam (1989)

Jong, G. de, Ettema, D., Gunn, H., Cheung, F., Kleijn, H.: Preparatory research into updating values of travel time in The Netherlands. Paper presented at the WCTR (1998)

Klir, G.J., Folger, T.A.: Fuzzy sets, uncertainty and information. Prentice Hall International, London (1988)

Klir, G.J., Wierman, M.J.: Uncertainty-based information: Elements of Generalized Information Theory, Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing. Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg/New York (1999)

Klir, G.J.: Uncertainty and information: foundations of generalized information theory. John Wiley & Sons, New York (2006)

Kroes, E.P.: Some Issues in Traffic Forecasting for Privately Financed Infrastructure. Paper presented at the European Transport Conference (1996)

Leurent, F.M.: An analysis of modelling error, with application to a traffic assignment model with continuously distributed values of time. Paper presented at the European Transport Conference (1996)

Lowe, S., Morrell D., Copley G.: Uncertainties in Highway Appraisal: the development of systematic sensitivity testing. Paper presented at the PTRC SAM (1982)

Ministerie van Financiën (2003) Risicowaardering bij publieke investeringsprojecten, Ministerie van Financiën

Press, W.H., Flannery, B.P., Teukolsky, S.A.,Vetterling, W.T.: Numerical Recipes in C: The Art of Scientific Computing. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1988)

Research Results Digest. Jackknife Testing—An Experimental Approach to Refine Model Calibration and Validation, National Cooperative Highway Research Program, Transportation Research Board (2003)

Rodier, C.J., Johnston, R.A.: Uncertain socioeconomic projections used in travel demand and emissions models: could plausible errors result in air quality nonconformity?. Transportation Research A. 36, 613–631 (2002)

Schrijver, J.M., Meeuwissen A.M.H., Hilbers H.: Het voorspellen van betrouwbaarheid van reistijd met een vervoerprognosemodel: SMARA, proceedings of the CVS (2003)

Zhao, Y., Kockelman, K.M.: The propagation of uncertainty through travel demand models: an exploratory analysis. Annals of Regional Science. 361, 145–163 (2002)CrossRef

Titel: Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: literature review and new results for The Netherlands
verfasst von: Gerard de Jong
Andrew Daly
Marits Pieters
Stephen Miller
Ronald Plasmeijer
Frank Hofman
Publikationsdatum: 01.07.2007
Verlag: Kluwer Academic Publishers-Plenum Publishers
Erschienen in: Transportation / Ausgabe 4/2007
Print ISSN: 0049-4488
Elektronische ISSN: 1572-9435
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-006-9110-8

Springer Professional

Abstract

Bitte loggen Sie sich ein, um Zugang zu Ihrer Lizenz zu erhalten.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Springer Professional "Technik"

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 4/2007

Land use-transportation scenario planning: promise and reality

The role of paratransit: some reflections based on the experience of residents’ coach services in Hong Kong

Impacts of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) on time use and travel behavior: a structural equations analysis

A new approach to evaluating on-road public transport priority projects: balancing the demand for limited road-space

Travel mode choice: affected by objective or subjective determinants?

Influences on bicycle use

Premium Partner