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Erschienen in:

01.07.2014

Demand for taxi services: new elasticity evidence

verfasst von: John M. Rose, David A. Hensher

Erschienen in: Transportation | Ausgabe 4/2014

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Abstract

This paper investigates the factors that influence the choice of, and hence demand for taxis services, a relatively neglected mode in the urban travel task. Given the importance of positioning preferences for taxi services within the broader set of modal options, we develop a modal choice model for all available modes of transport for trips undertaken by individuals or groups of individuals in a number of market segments. A sample of recent trips in Melbourne in 2012 was used to develop segment-specific mode choice models to obtain direct (and cross) elasticities of interest for cost and service level attributes. Given the nonlinear functional form of the way attributes of interest are included in the modal choice models, a simple set of mean elasticity estimates are not behaviourally meaningful; hence a decision support system is developed to enable the calculation of mean elasticity estimates under specific future service and pricing levels. Some specific direct elasticity estimates are provided as the basis of illustrating the magnitudes of elasticity estimates under likely policy settings.

Vorheriger Artikel Complementing distance based charges with discounted registration fees in the reform of road user charges: the impact for motorists and government revenue

Nächster Artikel Heterogeneity assumptions in the specification of bargaining models: a study of household level trade-offs between commuting time and salary

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In recognising that many of the reported elasticities in Table 1 are from studies undertaken quite some time ago, we undertook a search of more recent studies, especially those related to airport access mode. To our surprise and disappointment, we could not build on the earlier evidence. For example the report by Gosling (2008) reviewed many US studies on access mode to the airport and does not report a single elasticity.

Hire cars were also considered but the focus of this paper is on taxis.

A hire car is a car with a chauffeur. It is not a car that an individual hires from a company such as Avis or Hertz. This was made clear to respondents. As such it is like a taxi.

This is equivalent to assuming that individuals first choose the set of relevant alternatives from the universal finite choice set and then conditional of this subset, they chose the most preferred alternative. We, like the majority of studies with variable choice sets, do not model the choice of choice sets from the universal finite set.

In cases where respondents had more than three alternative modes of transport available to them for the recent trip used to form the context of the SC experiment, the survey instrument selected as one mode either a taxi or hire car as one alternative in the SC experiment, and two of the remaining alternatives from the set as the last two alternatives in the SC scenario.

MPTP gives members half price taxi fares, paying up to $60 per trip. Some members have a yearly limit. The cards cost $16.50 and are valid for 6 years. An individual can become an MPTP member if they live in Victoria, have a severe and permanent disability, and have a disability that means they cannot use public transport by themself. See http://www.taxi.vic.gov.au/passengers/mptp.

We were unable to obtain statistically significant parameter estimates for random parameter for this segment, due we suspect to the small sample size.

For example, the usual specification in terms of a normal distribution is to define β_nk = β_k + η_k v _n where v _n is the random variable. The constrained specification would be β_nk = β_k + β_k v _n when the standard deviation equals the mean or β_nk = β_k + hβ_k v _n when h is the coefficient of variation taking any positive value. We would generally expect h to lie in the 0–1 range since a standard deviation greater than the mean estimate typically results in behaviourally unacceptable parameter estimates.

The crowding attribute was simplified in contrast to the trip time reliability attribute that has assigned probabilities of occurrence. In future studies we recommend a similar treatment of crowding as specified for reliability.

Although we allowed for the possibility of a recent trip of a heavy downpour, there was very little of this and the majority of respondents indicated it was sunny, overcast or a light rain. We would conjecture that had we a sizeable sample who experienced a downpour on the reported recent trip, we would have identified a statistically significant positive sign for the parameter attached to this attribute level in the context of night travel in particular.

The modal constants are important for a number of reasons, none more so than to obtain elasticity estimates. In discrete choice models, elasticities are a function of not just the parameter estimates and the data, but also the choice probabilities and attribute levels. As such, it is important that the mode specific constants reproduce the known market shares, otherwise any elasticities generated from the model will be biased.

http://www.taxifare.com.au/rates/australia/melbourne/.

Details of this process are available on request from the authors.

Basu, D., Maitra, B.: Stated preference approach for valuation of travel time displayed as traffic information on a VMS board. J Urban Plan Dev 136(2), 214–224 (2010)CrossRef

Beesley, M.E.: Competition and Supply in London Taxis. J Transp Econ Policy 13(1), 102–131 (1979)

Bliemer, M.C.J., Rose, J.M.: Experimental design influences on stated choice outputs: an empirical study in air travel choice. Transp. Res. Part A 45(1), 63–79 (2011)

Booz Allen Hamilton: ACT Transport Demand Elasticities Study. Report for Department of Urban Services, ACT, Australia (2003)

Flores-Guri, D.: An economic analysis of regulated taxicab markets. Rev Ind Organ 23(3), 255–266 (2003)CrossRef

Frankena, M.W., Pautler, P.A.: An Economic Analysis of Taxicab Regulation, US Federal Trade Commission, Bureau of Economics Staff Report (1984)

Gosling, G.: Airport Ground Access Mode Choice Models: A Synthesis of Airport Practice. Airport Cooperative Research Program Synthesis 5, Transportation Research Board, Washington D.C (2008)

Hensher, D.A., Rose, J.M., Greene, W.H.: Applied Choice Analysis: A Primer. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2005)CrossRef

Louviere, J.J., Hensher, D.A., Swait, J.: Stated Choice Methods: Analysis and Applications in Marketing, Transportation and Environmental Valuation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2000)CrossRef

Queensland Transport (2000) National Competition Policy Review of the Transport Operations (Passenger Transport) Act 1994, Sept 2000

Rose, J.M., Bliemer, M.C., Hensher, Collins, A.T.: Designing efficient stated choice experiments in the presence of reference alternatives. Transp. Res. Part B 42(4), 395–406 (2008)CrossRef

Rose, J.M., Bliemer, M.C.J.: Constructing efficient stated choice experimental designs. Transp Rev 29(5), 587–617 (2009)CrossRef

Rose, J.M., Bliemer M.C.J.: Sample size requirements for stated choice experiments. Transportation (Accepted 8 Nov) (2013)

Rouwendal, J., Meurs, H., Jorritsma, P.: Deregulation of the Dutch taxi sector. In: Proceedings of Seminar F, European Transport Conference, 37–49 (1998)

Schaller, B.: Elasticities for taxicab fares and service availability. Transportation 26(3), 283–297 (1999)CrossRef

Toner, J.P.: The welfare effects of taxicab regulation in English towns. Econ Anal Policy 40(3), 299–312 (2010)

Train, K.E.: Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation, 2nd edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2009)CrossRef

Titel: Demand for taxi services: new elasticity evidence
verfasst von: John M. Rose
David A. Hensher
Publikationsdatum: 01.07.2014
Verlag: Springer US
Erschienen in: Transportation / Ausgabe 4/2014
Print ISSN: 0049-4488
Elektronische ISSN: 1572-9435
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-013-9482-5

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