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Erschienen in: Public Choice 3-4/2013

01.03.2013 | Reply From

Democracy and countries with Muslim majorities: a reply and update

verfasst von: Niklas Potrafke

Erschienen in: Public Choice | Ausgabe 3-4/2013

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Abstract

My empirical results in Potrafke (2012) confirm past conclusions that Muslim-majority countries are less likely to be democratic. Hanusch takes issue with my results—and by inference with all past empirical results on the relation between Islam and democracy. In his comment on my study, Hanusch indicates that he believes I was using the POLITY IV index. He has not realized, as I made most clear, that the purpose of my study was to show results based on new data from Cheibub et al. (2010). Hanusch claims to have reversed the conclusion that having a Muslim majority is associated with having autocratic government. He establishes his conclusion by excluding the heartland of Islam from the estimation sample. For his estimates, Hanusch moreover uses data that do not appear to exist, at least in the claimed sources. I update my estimates to address issues that Hanusch raises. My new results confirm the conclusion that countries with Muslim majorities are less likely to be democracies. In deriving this result, I do not follow the strategy proposed by Hanusch of excluding from the data sample the countries in the heartland of Islam.

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Fußnoten
1
See Cheibub et al. (2010), who elaborate on the influence of regime change on economic growth, the influence of political institutions on civil war, and the nexus between economic development and democratization.
 
2
The measure by Cheibub et al. (2010) is not available for Monaco. The sample thus is reduced to 191 countries.
 
4
The MENA region as classified by the World Bank includes 21 countries. Table 1 includes 20 countries because there are no data for West Bank and Gaza. Hanusch’s dataset includes only 19 countries: he does not code Malta as being a MENA country.
 
5
For Haiti, there are data before 2003, and for the years 2006 and 2010. http://​search.​worldbank.​org/​data?​qterm=​military&​language=​EN (accessed on November 2, 2012).
 
6
Michael L. Ross, 2011-04, “Replication data for: Oil and Gas Production and Value, 1932–2009”, http://​hdl.​handle.​net/​1902.​1/​15828UNF:​5:​Hwe3jAjxG7fgOMzp​GQXOxw=​=​V4 [Version] (accessed on November 2, 2012).
 
7
The data of Ross include oil and gas income (per capita) and oil income. I have scaled Ross’s oil income variable by population so as to compare it with mine.
 
8
Ross (2009: 7) makes the following observation on oil and human development: “many Muslim countries are also significant oil producers, which makes it easy to confuse the effects of Islam with the effects of oil production. The problem is compounded by the concentration of major oil producers in the Middle East and North Africa; conceivably it is the region’s culture and history, not its oil wealth, that makes it persistently undemocratic”.
 
9
Gassebner et al. (2012) have used extreme bounds analysis (EBA) to investigate the determinants of democracy. Their results show that the Muslim variable has a negative influence on democracy in the full sample. However, that variable lacks statistical significance when the oil exporting countries are excluded. The oil exporting countries, as classified by Easterly and Sewadeh (2001), are Algeria, Angola, Bahrain, Brunei Darussalam, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Lybia, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar, Saudia Arabia, Trinidad and Tobago, Turkmenistan, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Since most of these oil-exporting countries are dictatorships with Muslim majorities, it is not surprising that the Muslim variable loses statistical significance when excluding these countries.
 
10
I use logarithms of the oil production value and the armed forces personnel variable to better account for outliers and smooth the distributions of both variables. Inferences do not change when I enter the levels of the oil production value and the armed forces personnel instead of the logarithms.
 
11
Compared to my 2012 paper, I make four coding changes: For Oman, I used only the population share of Sunni Muslims, I now include the share of all Muslims. I did not consider the legal origin of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Germany and Saint Kitts and Nevis.
 
12
The absence of democracy impedes economic development because of the incentives of autocratic rulers to ensure that economic progress does not give rise to a viable opposition (Hillman 2007a). On Islam as an impediment to economic development, see Kuran (1997, 2005, 2011), Hillman (2007b), Kuran and Singh (2012), and Kuran and Lustig (2012). Kuran (2011: 294) observes with respect to Islam that “the weaknesses of private sectors and civil societies, which are rooted in the region’s institutional history, breed complacency toward autocratic rule”.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Democracy and countries with Muslim majorities: a reply and update
verfasst von
Niklas Potrafke
Publikationsdatum
01.03.2013
Verlag
Springer US
Erschienen in
Public Choice / Ausgabe 3-4/2013
Print ISSN: 0048-5829
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-7101
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-012-0051-9

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