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Erschienen in: Review of Accounting Studies 4/2010

01.12.2010

Management’s tone change, post earnings announcement drift and accruals

verfasst von: Ronen Feldman, Suresh Govindaraj, Joshua Livnat, Benjamin Segal

Erschienen in: Review of Accounting Studies | Ausgabe 4/2010

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Abstract

This study explores whether the management discussion and analysis (MD&A) section of Forms 10-Q and 10-K has incremental information content beyond financial measures such as earnings surprises and accruals. It uses a classification scheme of words into positive and negative categories to measure the tone change in the MD&A section relative to prior periodic SEC filings. Our results indicate that short window market reactions around the SEC filing are significantly associated with the tone change of the MD&A section, even after controlling for accruals and earnings surprises. We show that management’s tone change adds significantly to portfolio drift returns in the window of 2 days after the SEC filing date through 1 day after the subsequent quarter’s preliminary earnings announcement, beyond financial information conveyed by accruals and earnings surprises. The drift returns are affected by the ability of the tone change signals to help predict the subsequent quarter’s earnings surprise but cannot be completely attributed to this ability. We also find that the incremental information of management’s tone change depends on the strength of the firm’s information environment.

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Fußnoten
1
We discuss prior work relevant to our paper in our literature review below.
 
2
The history of research trying to assess the information content of qualitative information is long. Our literature review below discusses earlier and contemporaneous works.
 
3
We discuss the specific findings of Tetlock (2007) in some detail in our literature review.
 
4
The authors acknowledge that these profits could be wiped out by transactions costs from high frequency trading.
 
5
We emphasize that while the Tetlock papers motivated our methodology in our paper, there are a number of other papers discussed later that are also related to our work.
 
6
Kothari and Short (2003) is probably the first paper to recognize this and examine the information content of MD&A disclosures in addition to the information content of analysts’ forecasts and media reports using a methodology similar to Tetlock (2007) and Tetlock et al. (2008). However, they focus on the effects of the MD&A’s sentiment on the firm’s cost of capital and risk (stock price volatility), not on their ability to predict future stock prices and earnings.
 
7
In an earlier version of this paper, we had also controlled for operating cash flows (OCF) with similar results to those obtained here. We have dropped the OCF in this version of the paper at the suggestion of an anonymous reviewer who pointed out that OCF and Accruals are correlated.
 
8
The set-up costs required for analyzing the tone change of qualitative disclosure may favor professional investors.
 
9
We refer the interested reader to the book by Beaver (1997) for a discussion and analysis of the value relevance of financial disclosures.
 
10
These papers provide citations for the interested reader.
 
11
The paper also discusses other applications of WORDS in finance and accounting.
 
12
Interestingly, Li (2008b) also finds that the information content of MD&As has not changed significantly after the passage of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. This may partially contradict the findings of Loughran and McDonald (2008), who find fewer strong modal words relative to weak ones after the passage of this act.
 
13
Since managers usually use prior MD&As as a blueprint for producing a new and incremental MD&A, there could be considerable similarities in MD&As that are close in years. This suggests that our tone change measure may be a better measure of information content than the tone level measure used by Kothari and Short (2003).
 
14
This supports the findings of Tetlock (2007), who shows similar results for a market index (Dow Jones). That is, when the media reports are pessimistic, the stock index price drops and market volatility increases.
 
15
Li measures changes in risk sentiments simply as a change across consecutive years in the (log of) the numbers of occurrences of risk-related words rather than the standardized measure of tone change used in our paper, by Tetlock (2007) and by Tetlock et al. (2008). Tetlock et al. (2008) discusses the merits of using standardized metrics to measure changes in sentiments.
 
16
If the pessimism factor were a proxy for transactions costs, then higher levels of pessimism should lead to lower volumes of trading on the following periods (see Tetlock 2007).
 
17
This reversal seems to be slower for small firms’ stocks relative to stocks of big firms when the tests are run on stocks other than those in the Dow Jones Index.
 
18
We emphasize that Engelberg (2008) does not examine the 10-Q and 10-K filings or the MD&A reports. We elaborate on the importance of this point below.
 
19
Some of the other papers that use Diction to extract investor sentiment are Bligh and Hess (2007), Ober et al. (1999) and Yuthas et al. (2002).
 
20
Henry (2008) uses a metric for tone that is similar to the one used in our paper. Others, notably, Das et al. (2005) and Das and Chen (2007), examine the association between stock price movements and online discussions and news activities using their own tone (or sentiment) index based on five distinct natural language processing algorithms that classify such discussions as bullish, bearish, or neutral.
 
21
See Clarkson et al. (1999, p. 117–118).
 
22
See, for example, Davis et al. (2008), pp. 11–14, Demers and Vega (2007), Engelberg (2008) footnote 7, p. 9 and Tetlock et al. (2008).
 
23
The low costs should especially apply to professional investors.
 
24
The interested reader can refer to Sanders and Das (2000) for guidelines regarding the filing formats for the SEC, the definition of the filing date, other important details regarding filings and the EDGAR database.
 
25
The database is available through WRDS or directly from S&P.
 
26
The database includes all GVKEYs where the market value of the firm’s equity at quarter-end exceeded $1 million.
 
27
Because companies may file their 10-Q forms late, the filing date itself cannot be a reliable indication for the specific quarter it relates to.
 
28
To make sure that our results are not driven by observations with extreme returns as argued by Kraft et al. (2004), we repeated the analysis but deleted all extreme 0.5% observations with buy-and-hold excess returns in any of the two return periods used. The results are similar to those reported here.
 
29
We use the most recent forecast for each analyst in the 90-day window.
 
30
As pointed out by one of our reviewers, some firms incorporate by reference the MD&A section in their annual report to shareholders (ARS) in their Form 10-K. Our minimum word count of 30 may not be sufficient to guard against inclusion of these references to ARS in our sample, in which cases the changes in tones of these 10-K Forms may be random. This is likely to bias our study against finding significant results for tone changes. Less than 5% of our sample of 10-K Forms has fewer than 700 words. Also, as we report in the robustness tests below, our main results are insensitive to fourth quarter versus interim quarters.
 
33
It is worth noting that Loughran and McDonald concentrate more on the negative word category because negative words seem to have a more pervasive effect on the financial markets than positive words (Tetlock 2007; Tetlock et al. 2008).
 
34
Loughran and McDonald find that firms reduce the usage of strong modal verbs relative to weak ones after the passage of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act in 2002.
 
35
We first estimate the signal for each periodic filing in a specific quarter and then use the prior periodic filings to estimate the tone change. Thus, all means and standard errors are based on initial 10-Q and 10 K forms and not their subsequent amendments.
 
36
We follow standard convention in what we mean by short-window abnormal returns and long-term excess returns. Short-window abnormal returns surrounding MD&A disclosures are defined as buy-and-hold return on a stock minus the average return on a matched size-B/M-momentum portfolio over the days [−1, +1], where day 0 is the SEC filing date. As a matter of abundant caution, day −1 is included to capture any leakage of information that may have affected stock prices. The excess drift return for the longer-term is the buy-and-hold return on a stock minus the value weighted average return on a matched size-B/M-momentum portfolio from two days after the SEC filing date through one day after the subsequent quarter’s preliminary earnings announcement.
 
37
When using Harvard’s General Inquirer word list, the differential tone signal had greater associations with future return drift than either the positive or negative signals alone.
 
38
We thank an anonymous reviewer for suggesting that we incorporate this in our paper.
 
39
This possibility has also been suggested by Kothari and Short (2003).
 
40
We cannot use the mean tone of other firms in the same industry for the current quarter because some firms report earlier than others, and we do not wish to use information not yet available at portfolio construction date.
 
41
See Koenker 2005, for details on Quantile regressions.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Management’s tone change, post earnings announcement drift and accruals
verfasst von
Ronen Feldman
Suresh Govindaraj
Joshua Livnat
Benjamin Segal
Publikationsdatum
01.12.2010
Verlag
Springer US
Erschienen in
Review of Accounting Studies / Ausgabe 4/2010
Print ISSN: 1380-6653
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-7136
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11142-009-9111-x

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