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Erschienen in: Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting 4/2008

01.11.2008 | Original Research

The persistence of earnings per share

verfasst von: Luis A. Gil-Alana, Rolando F. Peláez

Erschienen in: Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting | Ausgabe 4/2008

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Abstract

The persistence of innovations to accounting earnings per share, EPS, has important implications for equity valuation, yet it remains a largely neglected subject. This paper employs various empirical tests in order to measure the persistence of shocks to EPS for the S&P 500 index. Within the I(0)/I(1) paradigm the empirical evidence rejects the I(1) specification, supporting instead a trend-stationary representation. When fractional orders of integration are considered, the results indicate that the detrended series is long memory (d  >  0) and mean reverting (d < 1). The responses decay slowly to zero, albeit 50 quarters after an initial shock the responses remain significantly different from zero. Likewise, the variance ratio evidence suggests that the effect of a shock persists over time spans characteristic of the business cycle.

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Fußnoten
1
Williams (1938) argued that common stock has value only because it pays dividends. However, Nobel laureates Miller and Modigliani (1961) posited that the dividend decision does not affect stock prices, and that EPS are the proper basis for establishing the market value of equity. They developed a stock valuation model in which price is the present value of rationally expected EPS adjusted for the firm’s capital investments. Sharpe et al. (1999) present a similar model in which the market value of a firm’s equity is independent of the dividend decision. However, the dividend decision is relevant since under some conditions the Miller–Modigliani EPS discount model is equivalent to the dividend discount model (Shiller 1981). In the end, the dividend decision matters because dividends and capital gains are taxed differently (Ang et al. 1991).
 
2
The major scandals involved Enron, Global Crossing, ImClone, Adelphia Communications, Arthur Andersen, Citigroup, Health South, Merrill Lynch, Qwest Communications, Rite Aid, Tyco International, WorldCom, AOL Time Warner, Bristol-Myers Squibb, CMS Energy, Duke Energy, Dynegy, El Paso, Halliburton, Kmart, Merck, Mirant, Nicor Systems, Peregrine Systems, Reliant Energy, and Xerox.
 
3
It is worth remembering that on January 10, 2000, America Online (AOL) announced plans to acquire Time Warner Inc. for roughly $182 billion, in what at the time was the largest merger in history. The merger won accolades as made in heaven, and as the embodiment of the new paradigm. The merger planning and analysis occurred at the height of the dot.com bubble; the NASDAQ COMP stock index peaked three months later on March 10, 2000. In the wake of the technology sector meltdown, the merger became a Titanic financial wreck.
 
4
The number of autoregressive lags (4) in the ADF test equation was selected using the Bayes Information Criterion.
 
5
The condition y t  =  0, t = 0 is required for the Type II definition of fractional integration. For an alternative definition (Type I), see Marinucci and Robinson (1999).
 
6
Robinson and Iacome (2005) examine the interaction of long memory and deterministic trends.
 
7
In this case, prior to estimation, the original data was first differenced and subsequently 1.0 was added to the estimated value of d. Phillips and Shimotsu (2005) offer a refinement of this procedure, albeit at a cost since estimation requires additional user-chosen values.
 
8
As the differencing interval increases relative to the sample size, the variance ratio exhibits a downward bias, requiring an adjustment for degrees of freedom. VR k was computed with a degrees of freedom correction, T/(T − k), following Campbell and Mankiw (1987).
 
9
The Bayes Information Criterion (BIC) imposes a greater penalty for each additional regressor than the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and thus selects a more parsimonious model than the latter.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
The persistence of earnings per share
verfasst von
Luis A. Gil-Alana
Rolando F. Peláez
Publikationsdatum
01.11.2008
Verlag
Springer US
Erschienen in
Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting / Ausgabe 4/2008
Print ISSN: 0924-865X
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-7179
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-007-0077-0

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