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Predicting Monthly Spring Discharges Using a Simple Statistical Model

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Abstract

Current precipitation and past climate variability induce considerable intermonthly fluctuations in spring discharges. This study presents the DISHMET model (Discharge Hydro-Climatological Model) developed to perform historical spring reconstructions in the lack of physical assumptions. We analyzed discharge data of the Caraventa spring, located on the southern side of Mount La Montagna in Southern Italy, which has been monitored since the 1996s. The La Montagna aquifer is tectonically and litologically complex and deformed bedding controls the groundwater flow. Due to this aspect a parsimonious model should be more suitable than a complex model in spring discharge estimation. Thus, the DISHMET model incorporates monthly and annual precipitation only. The model is able to estimate sufficiently well the monthly fluctuations of groundwater discharge. DISHMET can be easily used to assess historical discharge, even when hydrological data is discontinuously available. The magnitude of this discharge is linked to the frequency and type of weather patterns transiting over the central Mediterranean area during the autumn and winter seasons. It is mainly related to the local precipitation that recharges the Mt. La Montagna aquifer. An analysis of antecedent rainfall and spring discharge reveal moderate to strong relationships.

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Acknowledgments

We thank two anonymous reviewers for their thoughtful, constructive reviews. This research was financed by PRIN 2010–2011 project (prot. 2010E89BPY_001, resp. F.M. Guadagno).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Met European Research Observatory, HyMex – GEWEX-Experiment (WCRP), 82100, Benevento, Italy

    Nazzareno Diodato

  2. Dipartimento di Scienze e Tecnologie, University of Sannio, Via dei Mulini, 59/A, 82100, Benevento, Italy

    Nazzareno Diodato, Luigi Guerriero, Francesco Fiorillo, Libera Esposito, Paola Revellino, Gerardo Grelle & Francesco Maria Guadagno

Authors
  1. Nazzareno Diodato
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  2. Luigi Guerriero
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  3. Francesco Fiorillo
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  4. Libera Esposito
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  5. Paola Revellino
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  6. Gerardo Grelle
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  7. Francesco Maria Guadagno
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Luigi Guerriero.

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Diodato, N., Guerriero, L., Fiorillo, F. et al. Predicting Monthly Spring Discharges Using a Simple Statistical Model. Water Resour Manage 28, 969–978 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0527-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0527-0

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