Skip to main content
Erschienen in: Water Resources Management 2/2015

01.01.2015

SPI-Based Probabilistic Analysis of Drought Areal Extent in Sicily

verfasst von: Brunella Bonaccorso, David J. Peres, Antonio Castano, Antonino Cancelliere

Erschienen in: Water Resources Management | Ausgabe 2/2015

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

Drought is a natural phenomenon that presents spatial and temporal features whose knowledge is fundamental for an appropriate water resources management. In particular, the assessment of probabilities and return periods of areal extent of droughts of different severities over a region can provide useful information for planning drought management. In this study, an analytical methodology to characterize probabilistically the relationship between meteorological drought severity (computed in terms of Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI) and areal extent, expressed as Drought severity-Area-Frequency (SAF) curves, is proposed. In particular, analytical expressions of SAF curves describing the proportion of the total area of the region of interest where the SPI values are below a fixed threshold are derived. The developed curves enable to characterize a given drought event in a region, by computing the probability of occurrence of SAF curves exceeding the one observed. The proposed methodology is validated through the investigation of the spatio-temporal features of drought occurrences over Sicily, Italy, for the period 1921–2005.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Bonaccorso B, Bordi I, Cancelliere A, Rossi G, Sutera A (2003a) Spatial variability of drought: an analysis of the SPI in Sicily. Water Resour Manag 17(4):273–296CrossRef Bonaccorso B, Bordi I, Cancelliere A, Rossi G, Sutera A (2003a) Spatial variability of drought: an analysis of the SPI in Sicily. Water Resour Manag 17(4):273–296CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Bonaccorso B, Cancelliere A, Rossi G (2003b) An analytical formulation of return period of drought severity. Stoch Env Res Risk A 17(1):157–174CrossRef Bonaccorso B, Cancelliere A, Rossi G (2003b) An analytical formulation of return period of drought severity. Stoch Env Res Risk A 17(1):157–174CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Bonaccorso B, Cancelliere A, Rossi G (2012) Methods for drought analysis and forecasting. In: Balakrishnan N (ed) Methods and applications of statistics in the atmospheric and earth sciences. John Wiley and Sons, Hoboken, pp 150–184. ISBN 9780470503447 Bonaccorso B, Cancelliere A, Rossi G (2012) Methods for drought analysis and forecasting. In: Balakrishnan N (ed) Methods and applications of statistics in the atmospheric and earth sciences. John Wiley and Sons, Hoboken, pp 150–184. ISBN 9780470503447
Zurück zum Zitat Bonaccorso B, Peres DJ, Cancelliere A, Rossi G (2013) Large scale probabilistic drought characterization over Europe. Water Resour Manag 27:1675–1692CrossRef Bonaccorso B, Peres DJ, Cancelliere A, Rossi G (2013) Large scale probabilistic drought characterization over Europe. Water Resour Manag 27:1675–1692CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Bordi I, Fraedrich K, Sutera A (2009) Observed drought and wetness trends in Europe: an update. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 13(8):1519–1530CrossRef Bordi I, Fraedrich K, Sutera A (2009) Observed drought and wetness trends in Europe: an update. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 13(8):1519–1530CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Burke EJ, Brown SJ (2010) Regional drought over the UK and changes in the future. J Hydrol 394:471–485CrossRef Burke EJ, Brown SJ (2010) Regional drought over the UK and changes in the future. J Hydrol 394:471–485CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Cancelliere A (2011) Stochastic characterization of droughts in stationary and periodic series. Proquest, Umi Dissertation Publishing, ISBN: 978-124397532 Cancelliere A (2011) Stochastic characterization of droughts in stationary and periodic series. Proquest, Umi Dissertation Publishing, ISBN: 978-124397532
Zurück zum Zitat Cancelliere A, Salas J (2004) Drought length properties for periodic stochastic hydrological data. Water Resour Res 10(2):1–13 Cancelliere A, Salas J (2004) Drought length properties for periodic stochastic hydrological data. Water Resour Res 10(2):1–13
Zurück zum Zitat Cancelliere A, Salas J (2010) Drought probabilities and return period for annual streamflows series. J Hydrol 391:77–89CrossRef Cancelliere A, Salas J (2010) Drought probabilities and return period for annual streamflows series. J Hydrol 391:77–89CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Edwards DC, McKee TB (1997) Characteristics of 20th century drought in the United States at multiple time scales. Climatology Report No. 97-2, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado Edwards DC, McKee TB (1997) Characteristics of 20th century drought in the United States at multiple time scales. Climatology Report No. 97-2, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
Zurück zum Zitat Hayes MJ, Svoboda M, Wilhite DA, Vanyarkho O (1999) Monitoring the 1996 drought using the SPI. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 80:429–438CrossRef Hayes MJ, Svoboda M, Wilhite DA, Vanyarkho O (1999) Monitoring the 1996 drought using the SPI. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 80:429–438CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Henriques AG, Santos MJJ (1999) Regional drought distribution model. Phys Chem Earth (B) 24(1–2):19–22CrossRef Henriques AG, Santos MJJ (1999) Regional drought distribution model. Phys Chem Earth (B) 24(1–2):19–22CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Hisdal H, Tallaksen LM (2003) Estimation of regional meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics: a case study for Denmark. J Hydrol 281:230–247CrossRef Hisdal H, Tallaksen LM (2003) Estimation of regional meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics: a case study for Denmark. J Hydrol 281:230–247CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Johnson N, Kotz S, Balakrishnan N (1994) Continuous univariate distributions, vol 1. Wiley & Sons, New York Johnson N, Kotz S, Balakrishnan N (1994) Continuous univariate distributions, vol 1. Wiley & Sons, New York
Zurück zum Zitat Kendall DR, Dracup JA (1992) On the generation of drought events using an alternating renewal-reward model. Stoch Hydrol Hydraul 6(1):55–68CrossRef Kendall DR, Dracup JA (1992) On the generation of drought events using an alternating renewal-reward model. Stoch Hydrol Hydraul 6(1):55–68CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Kim T, Valdés J, Aparicio J (2002) Frequency and spatial characteristics of droughts in the Conchos river basin, Mexico. Water Int 27(3):420–430CrossRef Kim T, Valdés J, Aparicio J (2002) Frequency and spatial characteristics of droughts in the Conchos river basin, Mexico. Water Int 27(3):420–430CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Lloyd-Hughes B, Saunders M (2002) A drought climatology for Europe. Int J Climatol 22(13):1571–1592CrossRef Lloyd-Hughes B, Saunders M (2002) A drought climatology for Europe. Int J Climatol 22(13):1571–1592CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Loukas A, Vasiliades L (2004) Probabilistic analysis of drought spatiotemporal characteristics in Thessaly region, Greece. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 4(5–6):719–731CrossRef Loukas A, Vasiliades L (2004) Probabilistic analysis of drought spatiotemporal characteristics in Thessaly region, Greece. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 4(5–6):719–731CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology. American Meteorological Society, Boston McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology. American Meteorological Society, Boston
Zurück zum Zitat Mishra A, Desai V (2005) Spatial and temporal drought analysis in the Kansabati river basin, India. Int J River Basin Manag 3(1):31–41CrossRef Mishra A, Desai V (2005) Spatial and temporal drought analysis in the Kansabati river basin, India. Int J River Basin Manag 3(1):31–41CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Mishra A, Singh V (2008) Development of drought SAF curves. In: Singh V (ed) Hydrology and hydraulics. Water Resources Publications, Highlands Ranch, pp 811–831 Mishra A, Singh V (2008) Development of drought SAF curves. In: Singh V (ed) Hydrology and hydraulics. Water Resources Publications, Highlands Ranch, pp 811–831
Zurück zum Zitat Mohan S, Sahoo PK (2008) Stochastic simulation of droughts. part 1: point droughts. Hydrol Process 22:854–862CrossRef Mohan S, Sahoo PK (2008) Stochastic simulation of droughts. part 1: point droughts. Hydrol Process 22:854–862CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Mood AM, Graybill FA, Boes DC (1974) Introduction to the theory of statistics. McGraw-Hill, ISBN: 0-07-042864-6 Mood AM, Graybill FA, Boes DC (1974) Introduction to the theory of statistics. McGraw-Hill, ISBN: 0-07-042864-6
Zurück zum Zitat Palmer WC (1965) Meteorological drought. Research Paper 45, U.S. Weather Bureau, Washington, D.C. Palmer WC (1965) Meteorological drought. Research Paper 45, U.S. Weather Bureau, Washington, D.C.
Zurück zum Zitat Raziei T, Bordi I, Pereira LS (2011) An application of GPCC and NCEP/NCAR datasets for drought variability analysis in Iran. Water Resour Manag 25(4):1075–1086CrossRef Raziei T, Bordi I, Pereira LS (2011) An application of GPCC and NCEP/NCAR datasets for drought variability analysis in Iran. Water Resour Manag 25(4):1075–1086CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Raziei T, Bordi I, Pereira LS (2013) Regional drought modes in Iran using the SPI: the effect of time scale and spatial resolution. Water Resour Manag 27(6):1661–1674CrossRef Raziei T, Bordi I, Pereira LS (2013) Regional drought modes in Iran using the SPI: the effect of time scale and spatial resolution. Water Resour Manag 27(6):1661–1674CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Rossi G, Bonaccorso B, Nicolosi V, Cancelliere A (2009) Characterizing drought risk in a sicilian river basin. In: Iglesias A et al (eds) Coping with drought risk in agriculture and water supply systems. Springer, Dordrech, pp 187–219, ISBN: 9781402090448CrossRef Rossi G, Bonaccorso B, Nicolosi V, Cancelliere A (2009) Characterizing drought risk in a sicilian river basin. In: Iglesias A et al (eds) Coping with drought risk in agriculture and water supply systems. Springer, Dordrech, pp 187–219, ISBN: 9781402090448CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Santos M (1983) Regional droughts: a stochastic characterization. J Hydrol 66(1–4):183–211CrossRef Santos M (1983) Regional droughts: a stochastic characterization. J Hydrol 66(1–4):183–211CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Santos JF, Pulido-Calvo I, Portela MM (2010) Spatial and temporal variability of droughts in Portugal. Water Resour Res 46, W03503. doi:10.1029/2009WR008071 Santos JF, Pulido-Calvo I, Portela MM (2010) Spatial and temporal variability of droughts in Portugal. Water Resour Res 46, W03503. doi:10.​1029/​2009WR008071
Zurück zum Zitat Sheppard WF (1899) On the application of the theory of error to cases of normal distribution and normal correlation. Philos Trans R Soc Lond Ser A Contain Pap Math Phys Charact 192:101–167CrossRef Sheppard WF (1899) On the application of the theory of error to cases of normal distribution and normal correlation. Philos Trans R Soc Lond Ser A Contain Pap Math Phys Charact 192:101–167CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Shiau J, Shen HW (2001) Recurrence analysis of hydrologic droughts of differing severity. J Water Resour Plan Manag 127(1):30–40CrossRef Shiau J, Shen HW (2001) Recurrence analysis of hydrologic droughts of differing severity. J Water Resour Plan Manag 127(1):30–40CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Tsakiris G, Pangalou D, Vangelis H (2007) Regional drought assessment based on Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). Water Resour Manag 21(5):821–833CrossRef Tsakiris G, Pangalou D, Vangelis H (2007) Regional drought assessment based on Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). Water Resour Manag 21(5):821–833CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Vicente-Serrano SM (2006) Differences in spatial patterns of drought on different time scales: an analysis of the Iberian Peninsula. Water Resour Manag 20:37–60CrossRef Vicente-Serrano SM (2006) Differences in spatial patterns of drought on different time scales: an analysis of the Iberian Peninsula. Water Resour Manag 20:37–60CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Zelenhasic E, Salvai A (1987) A method of streamflow drought analysis. Water Resour Res 23(1):156–168CrossRef Zelenhasic E, Salvai A (1987) A method of streamflow drought analysis. Water Resour Res 23(1):156–168CrossRef
Metadaten
Titel
SPI-Based Probabilistic Analysis of Drought Areal Extent in Sicily
verfasst von
Brunella Bonaccorso
David J. Peres
Antonio Castano
Antonino Cancelliere
Publikationsdatum
01.01.2015
Verlag
Springer Netherlands
Erschienen in
Water Resources Management / Ausgabe 2/2015
Print ISSN: 0920-4741
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-1650
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0673-4

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 2/2015

Water Resources Management 2/2015 Zur Ausgabe