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3-Day-Ahead Forecasting of Regional Pollution Index for the Pollutants NO2, CO, SO2, and O3 Using Artificial Neural Networks in Athens, Greece

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Abstract

The difficulty in forecasting concentration trends with a reasonable error is still an open problem. In this paper, an effort has been made to this purpose. Artificial Neural Networks are used in order to forecast the maximum daily value of the European Regional Pollution Index as well as the number of consecutive hours, during the day, with at least one of the pollutants above a threshold concentration, 24 to 72 h ahead. The prediction concerns seven different places within the Greater Athens Area, Greece. The meteorological and air pollution data used in this study have been recorded by the network of the Greek Ministry of the Environment, Physical Planning, and Public Works over a 5-year period, 2001–2005. The hourly values of air pressure and global solar irradiance for the same period have been recorded by the National Observatory of Athens. The results are in a very good agreement with the real-monitored data at a statistical significance level of p < 0.01.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Technological Education Institute of Piraeus, 250 Thevon and P. Ralli Str., 122 44, Athens, Greece

    Konstantinos P. Moustris

  2. School of Chemical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece

    Ioannis C. Ziomas

  3. General Department of Mathematics, Technological Education Institute of Piraeus, 250 Thevon and P. Ralli Str., 122 44, Athens, Greece

    Athanasios G. Paliatsos

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  1. Konstantinos P. Moustris
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  2. Ioannis C. Ziomas
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  3. Athanasios G. Paliatsos
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Correspondence to Konstantinos P. Moustris.

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Moustris, K.P., Ziomas, I.C. & Paliatsos, A.G. 3-Day-Ahead Forecasting of Regional Pollution Index for the Pollutants NO2, CO, SO2, and O3 Using Artificial Neural Networks in Athens, Greece. Water Air Soil Pollut 209, 29–43 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11270-009-0179-5

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