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Exploring Ground Vegetation Change for Different Deposition Scenarios and Methods for Estimating Critical Loads for Biodiversity Using the ForSAFE-VEG Model in Switzerland and Sweden

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Abstract

The ForSAFE-VEG model was used to investigate the impacts of climate change and air pollution scenarios on soil chemistry and ground vegetations composition. In particular, the model involves a ground vegetation model incorporating plant changes to ambient site conditions in terms of climate and chemistry, but the model also incorporate competition between the different plant groups. The model was validated against observed values and reproduced observations of tree growth, soil chemistry, and ground vegetation compositions to satisfaction. The results show that the ground vegetation reacts strongly to changes in air pollution, in particular nitrogen as well as to climate change with major shifts in plant composition. A procedure for estimating critical loads for nitrogen, using ground vegetation biodiversity as criterion, was tested and the method seems operable. It suggests that if we want to protect the present biodiversity of the ground vegetation, this will face significant difficulties because of permanent climate change that induced changes in the ecosystem. We conclude that the reference state for ground vegetation biodiversity is rather to be sought for in the future, hopefully using models, than in the past or present.

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Acknowledgments

This study would not have been possible without the generous support of the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) and the Swiss National Focal Centre for modeling and mapping activities under the UN-ECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. The Swedish critical loads effort has profited significantly from the Swiss cooperation and support. The study used models and datasets developed within the Swedish long-term research programs ASTA 1997–2006 and SUFOR 1996–2005, supported by the MISTRA research foundation in Sweden.

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  1. Belyazid Consultants and Communications AB, Stationsvägen 13, 517 34, Bollebygd, Sweden

    Salim Belyazid

  2. Chemical Engineering Lund University, P.O. Box 124, 221 00, Lund, Sweden

    Harald Sverdrup

  3. EKG AG, Maulbeerstrasse 14, 3011, Bern, Switzerland

    Daniel Kurz

  4. Institut für Angewandte Planzenbiologie, Sandgrubenstrasse 25, CH-4124 Schönenbuch, Basel, Switzerland

    Sabine Braun

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  1. Salim Belyazid
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Correspondence to Harald Sverdrup.

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Belyazid, S., Sverdrup, H., Kurz, D. et al. Exploring Ground Vegetation Change for Different Deposition Scenarios and Methods for Estimating Critical Loads for Biodiversity Using the ForSAFE-VEG Model in Switzerland and Sweden. Water Air Soil Pollut 216, 289–317 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11270-010-0534-6

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