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A system dynamics model of China’s electric power structure adjustment with constraints of PM10 emission reduction

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Abstract

Recently, Chinese state environmental protection administration has brought out several PM10 reduction policies to control the coal consumption strictly and promote the adjustment of power structure. Under this new policy environment, a suitable analysis method is required to simulate the upcoming major shift of China’s electric power structure. Firstly, a complete system dynamics model is built to simulate China’s evolution path of power structure with constraints of PM10 reduction considering both technical and economical factors. Secondly, scenario analyses are conducted under different clean-power capacity growth rates to seek applicable policy guidance for PM10 reduction. The results suggest the following conclusions. (1) The proportion of thermal power installed capacity will decrease to 67% in 2018 with a dropping speed, and there will be an accelerated decline in 2023–2032. (2) The system dynamics model can effectively simulate the implementation of the policy, for example, the proportion of coal consumption in the forecast model is 63.3% (the accuracy rate is 95.2%), below policy target 65% in 2017. (3) China should promote clean power generation such as nuclear power to meet PM10 reduction target.

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Acknowledgements

Project supported by the National Social Science Fund of China (17BGL136).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Hui Long Guan, Chang Ping District, Beijing, 102206, China

    Xiaopeng Guo & Dongfang Ren

  2. Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development, North China Electric Power University, Hui Long Guan, Chang Ping District, Beijing, 102206, China

    Xiaopeng Guo

  3. School of Environment, Renmin University of China, No.59 Zhongguancun Sheet, Haidian District, Beijing, China

    Xiaodan Guo

Authors
  1. Xiaopeng Guo
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  2. Dongfang Ren
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  3. Xiaodan Guo
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Xiaopeng Guo.

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Responsible editor: Philippe Garrigues

Appendix

Appendix

Fig. 8
figure 8

Flow graph of electric power structure adjustment under air-pollution reduction

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Guo, X., Ren, D. & Guo, X. A system dynamics model of China’s electric power structure adjustment with constraints of PM10 emission reduction. Environ Sci Pollut Res 25, 17540–17552 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-1947-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-1947-9

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