Abstract
Understanding crop patterns and their changes on regional scale is a critical requirement for projecting agro-ecosystem dynamics. However, tools and methods for mapping the distribution of crop area and yield are still lacking. Based on the cross-entropy theory, a spatial production allocation model (SPAM) has been developed for presenting spatiotemporal dynamics of maize cropping system in Northeast China during 1980–2010. The simulated results indicated that (1) maize sown area expanded northwards to 48°N before 2000, after that the increased sown area mainly occurred in the central and southern parts of Northeast China. Meanwhile, maize also expanded eastwards to 127°E and lower elevation (less than 100 m) as well as higher elevation (mainly distributed between 200 m and 350 m); (2) maize yield has been greatly promoted for most planted area of Northeast China, especially in the planted zone between 42°N and 48°N, while the yield increase was relatively homogeneous without obvious longitudinal variations for whole region; (3) maize planting density increased gradually to a moderately high level over the investigated period, which reflected the trend of aggregation of maize cultivation driven by market demand.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Battisti D S, Naylor R L, 2009. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science, 323: 240–244.
Biradar C M, Thenkabail P S, Noojipady P et al., 2009. A global map of rainfed cropland area (GMRCA) at the end of last millennium using remote sensing. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 11: 114–129.
CIESIN, IFPRI and WRI, 2000. Gridded population of the world, version 2 alpha. Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), and World Resources Institute (WRI). CIESIN, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, Available from: 〈http://sedac.ciesin.org/plue/gpw〉.
Fang Fuping, Cheng Shihua, 2009. Rice production capacity in China. Chinese Journal of Rice Science, 23(6): 559–566. (in Chinese)
Fang Xiuqi, Yin Peihong, Chen Fengdong, 2009. Changing regional differences of grain productivity in China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 29(4): 470–476. (in Chinese)
Fischer G, Shah M, van Velthuizen H et al., 2000. Global Agro-ecological Assessment for Agriculture in the 21st Century. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Foley J A, DeFries R, Asner G P, 2005. Global consequences of land use. Science, 309: 570–574.
Frolking S, Qiu J, Boles S et al., 2002. Combining remote sensing and ground census data to develop new maps of the distribution of rice agriculture in China. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 16(1091), doi: 10.1029/2001GB001425.
Gong Peng, 2009. Some essential questions in remote sensing science and technology. Journal of Remote Sensing, 13(1): 16–26. (in Chinese)
He Qijin, Zhou Guangsheng, 2012. The climatic suitability for maize cultivation in China. Chinese Science Bulletin, 57: 395–403. (in Chinese)
Jia Jianying, Guo Jianping, 2009. Studies on climatic resources change for maize over last 46 years in northeast China. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 30(3): 302–307. (in Chinese)
Landis J R, Koch G G, 1977. The measurement of observer agreement for categorical data. Biometrics, 33: 159–174.
Leff B, Ramankutty N, Foley J A, 2004. Geographic distribution of major crops across the world. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 18(1009): 1–27, doi: 10.1029/2003GB002108.
Li Jinggang, He Chunyang, Shi Peijun et al., 2004. Change process of cultivated land and its driving forces in northern China during 1983–2001. Acta Geographica Sinica, 59(2): 274–282. (in Chinese)
Lin G, Ho S P S, 2003. China’s land resources and land-use change: insights from the 1996 land survey. Land Use Policy, 20: 87–107.
Liu Chengwu, Li Xiubin, 2006. Regional differences in the changes of the agricultural land use in China during 1980–2002. Acta Geographica Sinica, 61(2): 139–145. (in Chinese)
Liu J, Fritz S. van Wesenbeeck C F A et al., 2008 A spatially explicit assessment of current and future hotspots of hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa in the context of global change. Global and Planetary Change, 64: 222–235.
Liu J, Liu M, Tian H et al., 2005. Spatial and temporal patterns of China’s cropland during 1990–2000: An analysis based on Landsat TM data. Remote Sensing of Environment, 98: 442–456.
Liu Xuhua, Wang Jingfeng, Liu Mingliang et al., 2005. Zoning of the driving forces of cultivated land changes. Science in China (Series D), 35(11): 1087–1095. (in Chinese)
Liu Zhenhuan, Li Zhengguo, Tang Pengqin et al., 2013. Spatial-temporal changes of rice area and production in China during 1980–2010. Acta Geographica Sinica, 68(5): 680–693. (in Chinese)
Liu Zhijuan, Yang Xiaoguang, Wang Wenfeng, 2009. Characteristics of agricultural climate resources in three provinces of Northeast China under global climate change. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 20(9): 2199–2206. (in Chinese)
Ma Shuqing, An Gang, Wang Qi et al., 2000. Study on the variation laws of the thermal resources in maize-growing belt of Northeast China. Resources Science, 22(5): 41–45. (in Chinese)
Monfreda C, Ramankutty N, Foley J A, 2008. Farming the planet: 2. the geographic distribution of crop areas and yields in the year 2000. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 22(1022): 1–19, doi: 10.1029/2007GB002952.
National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC), 2011. China Statistical Yearbook. Beijing: China Statistics Press. (in Chinese)
Olmstead A L, Rhode P W, 2011. Adapting North American wheat production to climatic challenges, 1839–2009. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, 108(2): 480–485.
Piao S L, Ciais P, Huang Y et al., 2010. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature, 467: 43–51.
Portmann F T, Siebert S, Döll P, 2010. MIRCA 2000-Global monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas around the year 2000: A new high-resolution data set for agricultural and hydrological modeling. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 24(1011): 1–24, doi: 10.1029/2008GB003435.
Ramankutty N, Evan A T, Monfreda C et al., 2008. Farming the planet: 1. Geographic distribution of global agricultural lands in the year 2000. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 22(1003): 1–19. doi: 10.1029/2007GB002952.
Ramankutty N, Foley J A, 1998. Characterizing Patterns of Global Land Use: An Analysis of Global Croplands Data. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 12(4): 667–685.
Siebert S, Döll P, Feick S et al., 2007. Global Map of Irrigation Areas Version 4.0.1[CD-ROM], FAO Land and Water Digital Media Ser. 34, FAO, Rome, ISBN: 978-92-5-105680-6.
Siebert S, Döll P, Hoogeveen J et al., 2005. Development and validation of the global map of irrigation areas, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9: 535–547.
Tang Huajun, Wu Wenbin, Yang Peng et al., 2010. Recent progresses in monitoring crop spatial patterns by using remote sensing technologies. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 43(14): 2879–2888. (in Chinese)
Tang Pengqin, Yang Peng, Chen Zhongxin et al., 2013. Using cross-entropy method simulates spatial distribution of rice in Northeast China. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 29(17): 96–104. (in Chinese)
Verburg P H, Neumann K, Nol L, 2010. Challenges in using land use and land cover data for global change studies. Global Change Biology, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02307.x.
Wang Shili, Zhuang Liwei, Wang Futang, 2003. Impacts of climate warming on thermal and moisture conditions in northeast china in recent 20 years. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 14(2): 152–163. (in Chinese)
Xiao X, Boles S, Liu J et al., 2005. Mapping paddy rice agriculture in southern China using multi-temporal MODIS images. Remote Sensing of Environment, 95: 480–492.
You L, Wood S, 2006. An entropy approach to spatial disaggregation of agricultural production. Agricultural Systems, 90: 329–347.
You L, Wood S, Wood-Sichra U, 2009. Generating plausible crop distribution maps for Sub-Saharan Africa using a spatially disaggregated data fusion and optimization approach. Agricultural Systems, 99(2): 126–140.
Yun Yaru, Fang Xiuqi, Wang Yuan et al., 2005. Main grain crops structural change and its climate background in Heilongjiang province during the past two decades. Journal of Natural Resources, 20(5): 697–704. (in Chinese)
Zhan Jinyan, Shi Nana, Deng Xiangzheng, 2010. Driving mechanism of cultivated land conversions in Jiangxi. Acta Geographica Sinica, 65(4): 482–493. (in Chinese)
Zhong T Y, Huang X, Zhang X et al., 2011. Temporal and spatial variability of agricultural land loss in relation to policy and accessibility in a low hilly region of southeast China. Land Use Policy, doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2011.01.004.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Foundation: National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41171328, No.41201184, No.41101537; National Basic Program of China, No.2010CB951502
Author: Tan Jieyang (1991–), Master Student, specialized in impact of climate change on agriculture.
Corresponding author: Li Zhengguo (1980–), PhD and Associate Professor, specialized in remote sensing, climate change and food security.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Tan, J., Yang, P., Liu, Z. et al. Spatio-temporal dynamics of maize cropping system in Northeast China between 1980 and 2010 by using spatial production allocation model. J. Geogr. Sci. 24, 397–410 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-014-1096-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-014-1096-0