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Landslide susceptibility mapping along Bhalubang — Shiwapur area of mid-Western Nepal using frequency ratio and conditional probability models

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Abstract

Roads constructed in fragile Siwaliks are prone to large number of instabilities. Bhalubang-Shiwapur section of Mahendra Highway lying in Western Nepal is one of them. To understand the landslide causative factor and to predict future occurrence of the landslides, landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) of this region was carried out using frequency ratio (FR) and weights-of-evidence (W of E) models. These models are easy to apply and give good results. For this, landslide inventory map of the area was prepared based on the aerial photo interpretation, from previously published/unpublished reposts, and detailed field survey using GPS. About 332 landslides were identified and mapped, among which 226 (70%) were randomly selected for model training and the remaining 106 (30%) were used for validation purpose. A spatial database was constructed from topographic, geological, and land cover maps. The reclassified maps based on the weight values of frequency ratio and weights-of-evidence were applied to get final susceptibility maps. The resultant landslide susceptibility maps were verified and compared with the training data, as well as with the validation data. From the analysis, it is seen that both the models were equally capable of predicting landslide susceptibility of the region (W of E model (success rate = 83.39%, prediction rate = 79.59%); FR model (success rate = 83.31%, prediction rate = 78.58%)). In addition, it was observed that the distance from highway and lithology, followed by distance from drainage, slope curvature, and slope gradient played major role in the formation of landsides. The landslide susceptibility maps thus produced can serve as basic tools for planners and engineers to carry out further development works in this landslide prone area.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Technology, Nepal Academy of Science and Technology, Lalitpur-Khumaltar, 44700, Nepal

    Amar Deep Regmi

  2. Department of Geology, Faculty of Science, Shinshu University, Asahi 3-1-1, Matsumoto, 3908621, Japan

    Kohki Yoshida

  3. College of Natural Resources & Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University (TMU), Noor, 14115-335, Tehran, Iran

    Hamid Reza Pourghasemi

  4. Central Department of Geology, Tribhuvan University, Kritipur, 44613, Nepal

    Megh Raj DhitaL

  5. Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Geosptial Information Science Research Centre (GISRC), University of Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Selangor Darul Ehsan, 43400, Malaysia

    Biswajeet Pradhan

Authors
  1. Amar Deep Regmi
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  2. Kohki Yoshida
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  3. Hamid Reza Pourghasemi
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  4. Megh Raj DhitaL
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  5. Biswajeet Pradhan
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Correspondence to Amar Deep Regmi.

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Regmi, A.D., Yoshida, K., Pourghasemi, H.R. et al. Landslide susceptibility mapping along Bhalubang — Shiwapur area of mid-Western Nepal using frequency ratio and conditional probability models. J. Mt. Sci. 11, 1266–1285 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-013-2847-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-013-2847-6

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