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Preliminary studies on the dynamic prediction method of rainfall-triggered landslide

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Abstract

Rainfall-triggered landslides have posed significant threats to human lives and property each year in China. This paper proposed a meteorological-geotechnical early warning system GRAPES-LFM (GRAPES: Global and Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System; LFM: Landslide Forecast Model), basing on the GRAPES model and the landslide predicting model TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-Stability Model) for predicting rainfall-triggered landslides. This integrated system is evaluated in Dehua County, Fujian Province, where typhoon Bilis triggered widespread landslides in July 2006. The GRAPES model runs in 5 km×5 km horizontal resolution, and the initial fields and lateral boundaries are provided by NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) FNL (Final) Operational Global Analysis data. Quantitative precipitation forecasting products of the GRAPES model are downscaled to 25 m×25 m horizontal resolution by bilinear interpolation to drive the TRIGRS model. Results show that the observed areas locate in the high risk areas, and the GRAPES-LFM model could capture about 74% of the historical landslides with the rainfall intense 30mm/h. Meanwhile, this paper illustrates the relationship between the factor of safety (FS) and different rainfall patterns. GRAPES-LFM model enables us to further develop a regional, early warning dynamic prediction tool of rainfall-induced landslides.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Yue-li Chen

  2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China

    Yue-li Chen

  3. Numerical Weather Prediction Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China

    Yue-li Chen, De-hui Chen & Ze-chun Li

  4. Fujian Monitoring Center of Geological Environment, Fuzhou, 350002, China

    Jun-bao Huang

Authors
  1. Yue-li Chen
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  2. De-hui Chen
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  3. Ze-chun Li
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  4. Jun-bao Huang
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Correspondence to Yue-li Chen.

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http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9251-2000

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9190-3496

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3164-3864

http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4365-7195

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Chen, Yl., Chen, Dh., Li, Zc. et al. Preliminary studies on the dynamic prediction method of rainfall-triggered landslide. J. Mt. Sci. 13, 1735–1745 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-014-3110-5

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